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KENOL KOBIL .... 2012
Aguytrying
#1581 Posted : Monday, August 13, 2012 2:22:03 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
Jamani wrote:
whichever it is trade with caution, you were warned


True that . This delay of H1 IS unlike Kk. Looks like 'the news' could be tied up.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
Jamani
#1582 Posted : Monday, August 13, 2012 2:58:54 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/12/2006
Posts: 1,554
Aguytrying wrote:
Jamani wrote:
whichever it is trade with caution, you were warned


True that . This delay of H1 IS unlike Kk. Looks like 'the news' could be tied up.


Come to think of it..its most likely, I think i agree with your opinion. It will be a double announcement
Cde Monomotapa
#1583 Posted : Monday, August 13, 2012 4:25:25 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Jamani wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
Jamani wrote:
whichever it is trade with caution, you were warned


True that . This delay of H1 IS unlike Kk. Looks like 'the news' could be tied up.


Come to think of it..its most likely, I think i agree with your opinion. It will be a double announcement

That's been the trend lately. Blowing Hot over Cold smile Let's culminate this Game Show - Money In Da Bank smile smile
ngapat
#1584 Posted : Monday, August 13, 2012 5:24:44 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 12/11/2006
Posts: 884
August 15th 2012
“Invest in yourself. Your career is the engine of your wealth.”
King G
#1585 Posted : Monday, August 13, 2012 5:35:04 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/20/2012
Posts: 3,855
Location: Othumo
ngapat wrote:
August 15th 2012



Let us all hope for positive update on the PUMA front!
Thieves
Cde Monomotapa
#1586 Posted : Monday, August 13, 2012 7:38:50 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
King G wrote:
ngapat wrote:
August 15th 2012



Let us all hope for positive update on the PUMA front!

A special Div?
Kausha
#1587 Posted : Monday, August 13, 2012 7:39:37 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/8/2007
Posts: 808
@maka, go and buy, you will make chums in a few weeks time. The pricing is most likely post 21, let's say I wouldn't be surprised if ended up after 25. What it total man and co are taking a substantial partial share swap? Why are we assuming it's an outright cash sale????

Meanwhile those talking about Kengen should channel their money to KK. Kengen is a government project management company. It's like buying shares of KURA and hoping for a dividend. The company believes their mandate is to create as many projects as possible to feed Vision 2030. Only problem is how to finance these projects and do you actually believe energy consumption will double or triple by 2018? I don't think so. Add onto that, we have oil and that means we have to put up a thermal plant by the refinery to manage and consume the sludge, so if we believe we have oil, shouldn't kengen factoring this in their plants? I actually believe Kengen will have to switch off some plants by 2018 if the deliever even without factoring oil in. Therefore since they are mostly using debt bilateral or otherwise as an shareholder shouldn't you looking elsewhere and if you want an option on the kenyan electricity why not buy KPLC at least their capex is directly linked to demand and not forecast/vision 2030 demand!! just a thought
VituVingiSana
#1588 Posted : Monday, August 13, 2012 7:58:57 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,134
Location: Nairobi
1H 2012 will likely be a loss. JIS has admitted as much in the Chairman's Statement of the 2011 Annual Report. If you dig into the Comprehensive Income (& the Financial Statements under Hedges/Derivatives) it is obvious that there is a huge drop in profits coming.

1H 2012 is over. The question is how if KK doing in 2H? Let's assume Puma doesn't buy KK. No problem as long as KK is doing well. Kazi iendelee!

Puma must have known about the impending loss in 1H 2012. If we know about it, they know about it.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
the deal
#1589 Posted : Monday, August 13, 2012 8:44:04 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
@Kausha Kengen is the future, they will make a killing with those carbon trading schemes, who said Kengen is only Kenya...the day they will produce enough for Kenya they can sell the surplus to other countries I.e SADC...Kengen debt is guaranteed by GoK.

@VVS no loss for H1 just a 50% drop to a PAT of kes1bn
murchr
#1590 Posted : Monday, August 13, 2012 9:32:10 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Kausha wrote:
@maka, go and buy, you will make chums in a few weeks time. The pricing is most likely post 21, let's say I wouldn't be surprised if ended up after 25. What it total man and co are taking a substantial partial share swap? Why are we assuming it's an outright cash sale????

Meanwhile those talking about Kengen should channel their money to KK. Kengen is a government project management company. It's like buying shares of KURA and hoping for a dividend. The company believes their mandate is to create as many projects as possible to feed Vision 2030. Only problem is how to finance these projects and do you actually believe energy consumption will double or triple by 2018? I don't think so. Add onto that, we have oil and that means we have to put up a thermal plant by the refinery to manage and consume the sludge, so if we believe we have oil, shouldn't kengen factoring this in their plants? I actually believe Kengen will have to switch off some plants by 2018 if the deliever even without factoring oil in. Therefore since they are mostly using debt bilateral or otherwise as an shareholder shouldn't you looking elsewhere and if you want an option on the kenyan electricity why not buy KPLC at least their capex is directly linked to demand and not forecast/vision 2030 demand!! just a thought


Shame on you d'oh! Pray Think

Let me pose a few questions. What % of Kenya is covered with electricity? What about E.Africa and include Somalia and S.sudan? With all the 2030 projects on the pipeline, dont you think additional power is needed? Is there anyone time that Kenya will not need energy?
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
youcan'tstopusnow
#1591 Posted : Monday, August 13, 2012 11:22:44 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
King G wrote:
ngapat wrote:
August 15th 2012



Let us all hope for positive update on the PUMA front!

A special Div?


Link?
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
mlennyma
#1592 Posted : Monday, August 13, 2012 11:33:34 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,184
Location: nairobi
Link is instinct
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
mwekez@ji
#1593 Posted : Tuesday, August 14, 2012 10:27:04 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
King G wrote:
ngapat wrote:
August 15th 2012



Let us all hope for positive update on the PUMA front!

A special Div?


Link?


What is the factor to watch on August 15th? Link?
mwekez@ji
#1594 Posted : Tuesday, August 14, 2012 11:25:04 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
mwekez@ji wrote:
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
King G wrote:
ngapat wrote:
August 15th 2012



Let us all hope for positive update on the PUMA front!

A special Div?


Link?


What is the factor to watch on August 15th? Link?


The trades so far at this counter haven’t shown any sign of anticipating a thing. So, what is all this hullabaloo about 15th Aug (tomorrow to be precise)?
Kausha
#1595 Posted : Tuesday, August 14, 2012 11:37:22 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/8/2007
Posts: 808
1h12 is a loss of about a billion if you do back of the envelope calculations.

Kengen is very simmilar to KQ, they are in a shareholder value destruction phase which is not very apparent to the naked eye- HOWEVER they will produce enough power for us that's for sure but that will be much more than we need if they execute all their plans.

That question of electricity coverage reminds me of the data story on safaricom. We all need energy but that doesn't translate to we all need electricity. Not all cell phone users need data.

The carbon trading story is a fad, the per unit price paid for it is a sham, ask Mumias, they peddled that story until it lost flavor, there is very little money there.

In 1997 when the economy was kaput peak demand was 723MW, in 2012 peak demand is about 1250MW. Demand for electricity has been growing at 8% annually. KPLC forecast demand at 2,250MW by 2015 which includes a reserve buffer of about 30%-the recommended buffer. Kengen has forecast to raise production to 3,00MW by 2015 and to 5,000MW by 2018. Reminds me of the dotcom bubble and the massive fibre capacity in Europe in the late 90's. Mind you with the exception of Ethopia, everyone else has hydro carbons including somalia. We all know most refineries require a thermal electricity plant besides them to consume the sludge. So who will we export kengen's largesse too. I suspect in 2015 we will start switching off some of Kengen's power stations. Mind you IPP's are on 10-15 year contracts so they are not going anywhere soon. Kengen's consumption of debt is very worrying. Very soon they will come with a rights issue at probably 5 bob, to confirm the share value destruction

The future is KPLC, the fibre thing they have going is brilliant. Every power cable has an embedded fibre to it, note no fibre cuts, pricing is low because it costs very little to set up. Now imagine when 50% of the country's electricity cables have fibre embedded? They also have last mile capability as well. Already this year we are talking 500-600m from dark fibre leasing, yet they have barely put together much fibre cable and much of this to the bottom line!!
Cde Monomotapa
#1596 Posted : Tuesday, August 14, 2012 11:44:05 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
mwekez@ji wrote:
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
King G wrote:
ngapat wrote:
August 15th 2012



Let us all hope for positive update on the PUMA front!

A special Div?


Link?


What is the factor to watch on August 15th? Link?

Time's up you ferras. As @mwekezaji has highlighted, no more time for thinking. Tomorrow we face the music!
Cde Monomotapa
#1597 Posted : Tuesday, August 14, 2012 11:47:44 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Hold up! Are results kesho or what's this 15th business? Link?
youcan'tstopusnow
#1598 Posted : Tuesday, August 14, 2012 12:33:52 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Hold up! Are results kesho or what's this 15th business? Link?

That's what me and mwekezaji are asking too...
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
mlennyma
#1599 Posted : Tuesday, August 14, 2012 1:17:00 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,184
Location: nairobi
If indeed its kesho i expect to count more than 50 wazuans here on news break.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
youcan'tstopusnow
#1600 Posted : Tuesday, August 14, 2012 2:57:17 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
15th August 2012 is the date for the next earnings announcement according to Bloomberg
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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