A low of 5.05! Now that's what I call a dive. 6 bob seems so far away.

Contrarian principles are applicable here,am preparing for a 0.5M SAFCOM purchase order.a fundamentally sound stock rewards those who stick to it even in times of euphoria.

I dont think Safaricom will go below 5 bob....anything below that there will be a stampede at the NSE...

There is advertising and there is this -> Click here That can get any rogue promoter sued via commercial laws mode of conduct.

Anyway back to trading. Scom has retraced 13% from the Aug 3rd close of 6/- to 5.20 as of today. As per tech analysis the weekly sell-off has been swift and is now overextended (oversold) and ready for a relief/counter bounce. This can be confirmed looking at the 50, 100 and 200 day SMA levels which have all been breached - making 5.70 the near term resistance. And today's price action and volume is interesting. After an intraday low of 5.05, the demand picked up (2:1) towards the close. Today's volume is what is called 'stopping supply' which is done by smart money aka maboyz (do they know something since this is not dividend inspired?). In most cases when a huge buy volume spikes goes into a falling price, the selling pressure is absorbed and this can be spotted from the last price before market close (5.35). The tech indicators, RSI and slow Stochastics are also deep in oversold levels. If tomorrow the share closes 4% down that should see the price at 5/- (the lower the better) where I intend to buy looking for a bounce up to 5.50 - 5.60 by Sept 3rd (book closure)- That being an 8% (minus commissions - buy/sell) weekly gain. Since the MACD is rolling south on the 6mth chart, I can't hold this one on mid to long term until the 100 day SMA level is reclaimed - currently at 5.70. After book closure the price action should be interesting. If we can deep to 4 - 4.40 levels the better for long term entry.

@qw - since you're a techs guy, what's your take for this quick profit for a 500K which will be 40K in a few days. Not bad for a quick buck on the contra trend especially after this spooked some loose hearts Morgan Stanley downgrades scom to equal weight - their target is now 5.60 from 6.40
NOTE: This is risky and not for the faint-hearted

@the deal - I'm a bit concerned with the lack of buy volume on NSE overall, that is not supportive of a healthy rally and supporting 4600 levels will be a bit difficult.

despite what your tech analysis says, scom profitability will reduce significantly going fwd. logically i d expect the same to happen to the share price. those trying to support the price only want to create an opportunity to bail out. one cannot support a 200b+ share for long. scom was overvalued during the IPO and the correction is nigh. mobitelea collected their cut kitambo!

which foreigners and how so? i have always assumed interaction between company management and shareholders is minimal

furthermore, doesn't such an activity amount to insider trading?

When two elephants fight, it is the "green" grass that gets the brunt of it...

IMHO, this is not about Safaricom and never will be; its about two Indian telcos both listed on the Bombay stock exchange, and fighting a cut throat thingy for their shareholders ( http://en.wikipedia.org/...e_Bombay_Stock_Exchange ) and Vodafone - a telco better known to clande around with everyone and anyone as long as cash exchanges hands

In India, Essar partners with Vodafone ( http://www.vodafone.in ), and their outfit is way smaller compared to Bharti, (India's largest mobile operator). Another note: Yu piggy-backs on the "Zain" network in areas where it does not have base-station presence. Love triangle, this mess!

My take is that Essar, (Vodafone's pal read clande, in India) - at Vodafone's orchestration - got into yu as a spoiler for Orange, Vodafone's most dreaded rival who perennially clobbers them at will in ALL other markets in which both operate (UK included http://en.wikipedia.org/...f_Europe#United_Kingdom ). The exception is Kenya - we are peculiar.

On the other hand, Bharti freaked out that if Essar made headway in emerging markets, (especially Kenya, touted as the emerging silicon valley of Africa) it could complicate its game-plan back home; (Kamau beats Wachira in the club, Wachira darks out of the club for a breather, Kamau follows Wachira outside the club fearing he's gone to get a weapon and the fight goes on outside the club) We all know a good offence is often a sufficient defense strategy, thats what it is about Bharti and Esser.

Am giving it to MJ... That he has held nerve for almost a week is commendable - that is leadership - I just hope he's making well considered decisions (assuming they are still his to make), what am not certain is whether he sees the above fight for what it is. I have this gut feeling MJ is not leaving Safcon out of free will, someone showed him the door (or he showed that someone a middle finger). First he looses his top distribution lieutenant mobicom, then gava lets him down on the 3G license saga and cedes its 20% in teams to Orange then Bharti... I recall reading some article that prohibits acquisition of telcos without government approval, what am wondering is whether that was meant to stop the legitimizing of the Vodafone-Essar indian clande locally. I read allot of gava-shafting in Vodafone's case, but gava is building roads, so the shafting can continue!

Then again, i would not be at all surprised if MJ surfaced on mombasa road on January 7th 2011 donning Bharti furahiday-dress-down colors...

Back to stocks & investments: SCBK is the MKesho for Zain's Mpesa called Zap, Discuss!

SCBK Chart link

my two penny mbilis!

@stocksguru sorry to disappoint you because SCBK is nowhere near as widespread.... Coop or KCB are zain's only option if they hope to make any meaningful impact

Offer valid upto September 23rd 2010. Sigh... Same old Safaricon. They never learn.

If my memory serves me right, there was this time MJ owned up to the fact that their super-normal profits were unsustainable in the long run.I don't think Safcon were totally shocked by Zain's move.It was only just a matter of time...