Wazua
»
Investor
»
Bonds
»
Kenya Debt Watch
Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/4/2009 Posts: 700 Location: Nairobi
|
CBK now targets interbank rate to cap money flow CBK’s declaration that it will engage in aggressive liquidity mop-up each time the interbank rate — cost of borrowing between banks — falls two percentage points below the CBR, is expected to secure the high interest-rate regime and cap inflation for at least a month longer. Read more: http://www.businessdaily...18/-/ko98xj/-/index.html“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/4/2009 Posts: 700 Location: Nairobi
|
The oil producing country has big plans ahead read more: http://af.reuters.com/news/country/?type=kenyaNews“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
|
[quote=Scubidu]The oil producing country has big plans ahead read more: http://af.reuters.com/ne...country/?type=kenyaNews[/quote] I assume you mean the eurobond thing. This eurobond talk has dragged on forever. Then the risks of this euro debt bomb is not helping either. Come 2017 we'll still be floating that eurobond...
http://af.reuters.com/ar...s/idAFL6E8IVMY520120731
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/4/2009 Posts: 700 Location: Nairobi
|
We are a land of dreams now. Anything is possible, although that duration is rather high... 10yrs... hummm. “We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/4/2009 Posts: 700 Location: Nairobi
|
Fitch raises red flag over growing public debt load read more: http://www.businessdaily...8/-/10blv93/-/index.html“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
|
[quote=Scubidu]Fitch raises red flag over growing public debt load read more: http://www.businessdaily.../-/10blv93/-/index.html[/quote] But nobody listens or cares until the next episode of currency volatility, credit squeeze with sky high funding rates & an economical growth slump period.
KE needs to ensure that it can maintain a GDP growth of 5% plus at least for 5yrs in a row to plug the deficits. Otherwise austerity pills will be served and that will be a bad outcome. Local production boost is a must and imports of things that can be sourced locally should be highly taxed. I like that idea by Jimnah about forming a bank of industries which can fund massive projects. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
|
Fitch has affirmed kenya at 'B+',outlook stable. However, the caution on growing public debt is in order. http://af.reuters.com/article/k...S&feedName=kenyaNews
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
|
The government has taken advantage of falling interest rates to raise more than a quarter of the planned annual borrowing in the first month of the financial year. Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) data shows that the Treasury’s net borrowing as at Thursday last week had hit Sh29 billion out of Sh108.7 billion planned for the fiscal year 2012/13, as interest rate yields on government securities have fallen steadily in recent months. http://www.businessdailyafrica....76/-/skteq9/-/index.html
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/4/2009 Posts: 700 Location: Nairobi
|
World Bank Launches Bond in Nigerian Naira. Another good initiative by the World Bank to support currencies in Africa. They now offer bond issues in Botswana Pula, Ghanaian Cedi, Nigerian Naira, South African Rand, Uganda Shilling and Zambian Kwacha. That pretty much somes up the major markets in Sub-Saharan Africa or I'm I missing one? Why haven't we been invited to the party? Read more: http://treasury.worldban...htm/NGN3_25Billion.html
http://treasury.worldban...efsNonCoreCurrencies.pdf“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
|
When oil is declared commercial viable, we will be invited to the high table... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/4/2009 Posts: 700 Location: Nairobi
|
Kenya financial stability report 2011 has an interest table (8) where they examine government indebtedness to CBK. Treasury rediscounted bonds worth 11 billion and maxed out their overdraft limit to 25 billion. But the most surprising comment below the table read as follows. Besides rediscounts, the government also exceeded the Overdraft Statutory Limit by about Ksh 0.8 billion in 2011, compared to underutilization of Ksh 0.2 billion in 2010. Accelerated borrowing from central bank is inflationary as it is equated to printing of money and therefore leads to macroeconomic instability through inflationary pressures.Read more below on page 24: http://www.centralbank.g...nancial-stability-report“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
|
hisah wrote: But nobody listens or cares until the next episode of currency volatility, credit squeeze with sky high funding rates & an economical growth slump period.
KE needs to ensure that it can maintain a GDP growth of 5% plus at least for 5yrs in a row to plug the deficits. Otherwise austerity pills will be served and that will be a bad outcome. Local production boost is a must and imports of things that can be sourced locally should be highly taxed. I like that idea by Jimnah about forming a bank of industries which can fund massive projects. Now Le prof warns about the looming debt crisis. But one IMF expects GDP to expand 5% by end of 2012 after 2 qtrs of consecutive growth contraction!
Quote:Writing in the annual Financial Sector Stability report released mid last week, Prof Ndung’u also warned the government against overshooting its borrowing limits. He said such a move amounts to pumping money directly into the economy, causing inflation. “Accelerated (government) borrowing from the central bank is inflationary as it is equated to printing of money and, therefore, leads to macroeconomic instability through inflationary pressures,” he wrote.
www.businessdailyafrica....70/-/ir3r4e/-/index.html
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/4/2009 Posts: 700 Location: Nairobi
|
hisah wrote:hisah wrote: But nobody listens or cares until the next episode of currency volatility, credit squeeze with sky high funding rates & an economical growth slump period.
KE needs to ensure that it can maintain a GDP growth of 5% plus at least for 5yrs in a row to plug the deficits. Otherwise austerity pills will be served and that will be a bad outcome. Local production boost is a must and imports of things that can be sourced locally should be highly taxed. I like that idea by Jimnah about forming a bank of industries which can fund massive projects. Now Le prof warns about the looming debt crisis. But one IMF expects GDP to expand 5% by end of 2012 after 2 qtrs of consecutive growth contraction!
Quote:Writing in the annual Financial Sector Stability report released mid last week, Prof Ndung’u also warned the government against overshooting its borrowing limits. He said such a move amounts to pumping money directly into the economy, causing inflation. “Accelerated (government) borrowing from the central bank is inflationary as it is equated to printing of money and, therefore, leads to macroeconomic instability through inflationary pressures,” he wrote.
www.businessdailyafrica....70/-/ir3r4e/-/index.html
What an admission by a central banker, that they're causing inflation. I remember someone telling me he heard some guy at MOF tell a foreigner that the fair value of the shilling was 90. But just like Githae and some of his statement seems people shoot from the hip, making statements without realizing the consequences. Maybe the only way for the economy/GDP to grow is for government to spend, their spending is on administrative costs as the governor said. Cumulative interest payments on domestic debt are up 44% from 14.9 billion to 21.5 billion. From the cbk weekly the average time to maturity of government securities declined to 4 years and 9 months in September from 5 years and 4 months at the end of June 2012. Seems the country is heading further toward an adjustable rate mortgage - not a good sign when yields are edging up. “We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
|
A high ARM period will cause serious havoc to the mortgage market. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
|
@Hisah the key question is who holds the debt? Banks...Insurance companies...Retirement Benefit Schemes etc Interesting http://www.bloomberg.com...-debt-restructuring.html
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
|
It's always interconnected. Contagion... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
|
@deal - also don't forget that KE has taken a lot of aid from IMF... You know the script esp if KES goes bonkers again... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
|
Btw now that Le prof has signalled the debt distress, how will tbill yields remain sub 10%... Will yields go back to 20%? A nightmare that would be... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
|
|
Rank: Member Joined: 2/8/2007 Posts: 808
|
T bills will be contained below 10% but you will see Longer dated instrument yields rise significantly. This was always on the cards anyway and it's a pity Prof didn't see it as far back as 2009. You don't loosen policy without target areas. Look at loosening as application of fertilizer. You don't spread fertilizer all over the place, otherwise you run the risk of excess weed growth which is costly to uproot!
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
|
|
|
Wazua
»
Investor
»
Bonds
»
Kenya Debt Watch
Forum Jump
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.
|