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Kenya Debt Watch
Scubidu
#141 Posted : Monday, July 30, 2012 11:34:46 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
CBK now targets interbank rate to cap money flow

CBK’s declaration that it will engage in aggressive liquidity mop-up each time the interbank rate — cost of borrowing between banks — falls two percentage points below the CBR, is expected to secure the high interest-rate regime and cap inflation for at least a month longer.

Read more:

http://www.businessdaily...18/-/ko98xj/-/index.html
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
Scubidu
#142 Posted : Tuesday, July 31, 2012 7:19:22 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
The oil producing country has big plans ahead smile

read more:

http://af.reuters.com/news/country/?type=kenyaNews
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
hisah
#143 Posted : Wednesday, August 01, 2012 6:54:52 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
[quote=Scubidu]The oil producing country has big plans ahead smile

read more:

http://af.reuters.com/ne...country/?type=kenyaNews[/quote]

I assume you mean the eurobond thing. This eurobond talk has dragged on forever. Then the risks of this euro debt bomb is not helping either. Come 2017 we'll still be floating that eurobond...

http://af.reuters.com/ar...s/idAFL6E8IVMY520120731


$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Scubidu
#144 Posted : Wednesday, August 01, 2012 6:29:48 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
hisah wrote:
[quote=Scubidu]The oil producing country has big plans ahead smile

read more:

http://af.reuters.com/ne...country/?type=kenyaNews[/quote]

I assume you mean the eurobond thing. This eurobond talk has dragged on forever. Then the risks of this euro debt bomb is not helping either. Come 2017 we'll still be floating that eurobond...

http://af.reuters.com/ar...s/idAFL6E8IVMY520120731




We are a land of dreams now. Anything is possible, although that duration is rather high... 10yrs... hummm.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
Scubidu
#145 Posted : Wednesday, August 08, 2012 10:28:41 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
Fitch raises red flag over growing public debt load

read more:

http://www.businessdaily...8/-/10blv93/-/index.html
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
hisah
#146 Posted : Thursday, August 09, 2012 6:47:27 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
[quote=Scubidu]Fitch raises red flag over growing public debt load

read more:

http://www.businessdaily.../-/10blv93/-/index.html[/quote]

But nobody listens or cares until the next episode of currency volatility, credit squeeze with sky high funding rates & an economical growth slump period.

KE needs to ensure that it can maintain a GDP growth of 5% plus at least for 5yrs in a row to plug the deficits. Otherwise austerity pills will be served and that will be a bad outcome. Local production boost is a must and imports of things that can be sourced locally should be highly taxed. I like that idea by Jimnah about forming a bank of industries which can fund massive projects.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
mwekez@ji
#147 Posted : Thursday, August 09, 2012 6:55:56 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
Fitch has affirmed kenya at 'B+',outlook stable. However, the caution on growing public debt is in order.

http://af.reuters.com/article/k...S&feedName=kenyaNews
mwekez@ji
#148 Posted : Tuesday, August 14, 2012 10:56:09 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
The government has taken advantage of falling interest rates to raise more than a quarter of the planned annual borrowing in the first month of the financial year.

Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) data shows that the Treasury’s net borrowing as at Thursday last week had hit Sh29 billion out of Sh108.7 billion planned for the fiscal year 2012/13, as interest rate yields on government securities have fallen steadily in recent months.

http://www.businessdailyafrica....76/-/skteq9/-/index.html
Scubidu
#149 Posted : Saturday, August 25, 2012 12:25:39 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
World Bank Launches Bond in Nigerian Naira.

Another good initiative by the World Bank to support currencies in Africa. They now offer bond issues in Botswana Pula, Ghanaian Cedi, Nigerian Naira, South African Rand, Uganda Shilling and Zambian Kwacha. That pretty much somes up the major markets in Sub-Saharan Africa or I'm I missing one? smile

Why haven't we been invited to the party?

Read more:

http://treasury.worldban...htm/NGN3_25Billion.html

http://treasury.worldban...efsNonCoreCurrencies.pdf
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
hisah
#150 Posted : Saturday, August 25, 2012 8:39:23 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
When oil is declared commercial viable, we will be invited to the high table...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Scubidu
#151 Posted : Saturday, September 29, 2012 8:52:38 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
Kenya financial stability report 2011 has an interest table (8) where they examine government indebtedness to CBK. Treasury rediscounted bonds worth 11 billion and maxed out their overdraft limit to 25 billion. But the most surprising comment below the table read as follows.

Besides rediscounts, the government also exceeded the Overdraft Statutory Limit by about Ksh 0.8 billion in 2011, compared to underutilization of Ksh 0.2 billion in 2010. Accelerated borrowing from central bank is inflationary as it is equated to printing of money and therefore leads to macroeconomic instability through inflationary pressures.

Read more below on page 24:

http://www.centralbank.g...nancial-stability-report
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
hisah
#152 Posted : Tuesday, October 02, 2012 6:30:31 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
hisah wrote:
Scubidu wrote:
Fitch raises red flag over growing public debt load

read more:

http://www.businessdaily.../-/10blv93/-/index.html


But nobody listens or cares until the next episode of currency volatility, credit squeeze with sky high funding rates & an economical growth slump period.

KE needs to ensure that it can maintain a GDP growth of 5% plus at least for 5yrs in a row to plug the deficits. Otherwise austerity pills will be served and that will be a bad outcome. Local production boost is a must and imports of things that can be sourced locally should be highly taxed. I like that idea by Jimnah about forming a bank of industries which can fund massive projects.

Now Le prof warns about the looming debt crisis. But one IMF expects GDP to expand 5% by end of 2012 after 2 qtrs of consecutive growth contraction! Pray Pray

Quote:
Writing in the annual Financial Sector Stability report released mid last week, Prof Ndung’u also warned the government against overshooting its borrowing limits. He said such a move amounts to pumping money directly into the economy, causing inflation. “Accelerated (government) borrowing from the central bank is inflationary as it is equated to printing of money and, therefore, leads to macroeconomic instability through inflationary pressures,” he wrote.


www.businessdailyafrica....70/-/ir3r4e/-/index.html

$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Scubidu
#153 Posted : Tuesday, October 02, 2012 9:00:14 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
hisah wrote:
hisah wrote:
Scubidu wrote:
Fitch raises red flag over growing public debt load

read more:

http://www.businessdaily.../-/10blv93/-/index.html


But nobody listens or cares until the next episode of currency volatility, credit squeeze with sky high funding rates & an economical growth slump period.

KE needs to ensure that it can maintain a GDP growth of 5% plus at least for 5yrs in a row to plug the deficits. Otherwise austerity pills will be served and that will be a bad outcome. Local production boost is a must and imports of things that can be sourced locally should be highly taxed. I like that idea by Jimnah about forming a bank of industries which can fund massive projects.

Now Le prof warns about the looming debt crisis. But one IMF expects GDP to expand 5% by end of 2012 after 2 qtrs of consecutive growth contraction! Pray Pray

Quote:
Writing in the annual Financial Sector Stability report released mid last week, Prof Ndung’u also warned the government against overshooting its borrowing limits. He said such a move amounts to pumping money directly into the economy, causing inflation. “Accelerated (government) borrowing from the central bank is inflationary as it is equated to printing of money and, therefore, leads to macroeconomic instability through inflationary pressures,” he wrote.


www.businessdailyafrica....70/-/ir3r4e/-/index.html



What an admission by a central banker, that they're causing inflation. I remember someone telling me he heard some guy at MOF tell a foreigner that the fair value of the shilling was 90. But just like Githae and some of his statement seems people shoot from the hip, making statements without realizing the consequences.

Maybe the only way for the economy/GDP to grow is for government to spend, their spending is on administrative costs as the governor said. Cumulative interest payments on domestic debt are up 44% from 14.9 billion to 21.5 billion. From the cbk weekly the average time to maturity of government securities declined to 4 years and 9 months in September from 5 years and 4 months at the end of June 2012. Seems the country is heading further toward an adjustable rate mortgage - not a good sign when yields are edging up.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
hisah
#154 Posted : Tuesday, October 02, 2012 9:30:21 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
A high ARM period will cause serious havoc to the mortgage market.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
the deal
#155 Posted : Tuesday, October 02, 2012 4:03:31 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
@Hisah the key question is who holds the debt? Banks...Insurance companies...Retirement Benefit Schemes etc

Interesting http://www.bloomberg.com...-debt-restructuring.html
hisah
#156 Posted : Tuesday, October 02, 2012 4:53:00 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
the deal wrote:
@Hisah the key question is who holds the debt? Banks...Insurance companies...Retirement Benefit Schemes etc

Interesting http://www.bloomberg.com...debt-restructuring.html

It's always interconnected. Contagion...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#157 Posted : Tuesday, October 02, 2012 5:54:10 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
@deal - also don't forget that KE has taken a lot of aid from IMF... You know the script esp if KES goes bonkers again...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#158 Posted : Wednesday, October 03, 2012 7:55:52 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Btw now that Le prof has signalled the debt distress, how will tbill yields remain sub 10%... Will yields go back to 20%? A nightmare that would be...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Kausha
#159 Posted : Wednesday, October 03, 2012 9:01:40 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/8/2007
Posts: 808
T bills will be contained below 10% but you will see Longer dated instrument yields rise significantly. This was always on the cards anyway and it's a pity Prof didn't see it as far back as 2009. You don't loosen policy without target areas. Look at loosening as application of fertilizer. You don't spread fertilizer all over the place, otherwise you run the risk of excess weed growth which is costly to uproot!
mwekez@ji
#160 Posted : Wednesday, October 03, 2012 9:23:53 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
hisah wrote:
the deal wrote:
@Hisah the key question is who holds the debt? Banks...Insurance companies...Retirement Benefit Schemes etc

Interesting http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2...-debt-restructuring.html

It's always interconnected. Contagion...


Kenya joining the PIGS¿ Shame on you Shame on you Shame on you
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