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Centum FY2022 - FY2026
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Ericsson
#141 Posted : Thursday, December 26, 2024 8:38:52 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,701
Location: NAIROBI
Dead as dodo.
Real estate venture has messed the company
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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VituVingiSana
#142 Posted : Friday, December 27, 2024 9:03:16 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,117
Location: Nairobi
@watesh Yes, it seems Cascadia and Mzizi have stalled.
What happened to the much ballyhooed $20mn from IFC for Mzizi?

I doubt Cascadia is economically profitable. They need to complete it and release the cash stuck in it.
The mall is falling apart in some places but it still limps along. Lots of empty spaces.

I have not been to Vipingo but if anyone has recently, please share your perspective. The Lifestyle Mall, CRE said it is not their project, is stalled and becoming an eyesore.

TRIFIC is being touted as the savior driving demand for housing and retail but have they managed to fill the North Tower? The last time I was at TR, there was very little activity.

On the plus side:
- I noticed a lot more solar panels
- New cinema theaters
- Construction/remodeling for a new (China) store

I expect Centum's MSP to have dropped as the cash and assets were used to buy TRIFIC as well as pay down debt.

I passed by Rosslyn Riviera and they have managed to increase occupancy levels as well as improve the offerings. Free parking too.

Village Market is hopping busy unlike TR. A busy hotel, lots of family entertainment, etc.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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DtheK
#143 Posted : Friday, December 27, 2024 3:13:06 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/15/2010
Posts: 133
Location: Kenya
As per HY 2024 investor presentation there are plans to bundle and sell off the North tower as a dollar REIT.
Significant investment into Akiira Geothermal plant, and still looking for more money from other investors(equity).I'm not sure if they've confirmed steam availability.
Why not just buy steam from proven Govt owned wells?
I expect peanut dividends in the short term(less than 50cts).
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Ericsson
#144 Posted : Saturday, December 28, 2024 1:15:30 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,701
Location: NAIROBI
DtheK wrote:
As per HY 2024 investor presentation there are plans to bundle and sell off the North tower as a dollar REIT.
Significant investment into Akiira Geothermal plant, and still looking for more money from other investors(equity).I'm not sure if they've confirmed steam availability.
Why not just buy steam from proven Govt owned wells?
I expect peanut dividends in the short term(less than 50cts).


How will they get kickbacks if they buy steam from proven government owned wells?
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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VituVingiSana
#145 Posted : Sunday, December 29, 2024 9:59:39 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,117
Location: Nairobi
DtheK wrote:
As per HY 2024 investor presentation there are plans to bundle and sell off the North tower as a dollar REIT.
Significant investment into Akiira Geothermal plant, and still looking for more money from other investors(equity).I'm not sure if they've confirmed steam availability.
Why not just buy steam from proven Govt owned wells?
I expect peanut dividends in the short term(less than 50cts).

Plans are a dime a dozen. I doubt the North Tower will become a REIT until it is (almost) fully occupied and that's FY2026 at best. Then finding investors. Not easy.

Akiira seems far from a sure thing in the near future. They need to drill/prove more wells and install turbines. So they need a lot of investment. That is no easy task. Good news might be the need for more power by KPLC in the next 5 years.

The 32c DPS may be a stretch for FY25 unless there is some windfall.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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watesh
#146 Posted : Tuesday, December 31, 2024 1:39:04 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/10/2014
Posts: 974
Location: Kenya
VituVingiSana wrote:
DtheK wrote:
As per HY 2024 investor presentation there are plans to bundle and sell off the North tower as a dollar REIT.
Significant investment into Akiira Geothermal plant, and still looking for more money from other investors(equity).I'm not sure if they've confirmed steam availability.
Why not just buy steam from proven Govt owned wells?
I expect peanut dividends in the short term(less than 50cts).

Plans are a dime a dozen. I doubt the North Tower will become a REIT until it is (almost) fully occupied and that's FY2026 at best. Then finding investors. Not easy.

Akiira seems far from a sure thing in the near future. They need to drill/prove more wells and install turbines. So they need a lot of investment. That is no easy task. Good news might be the need for more power by KPLC in the next 5 years.

The 32c DPS may be a stretch for FY25 unless there is some windfall.


Akiira has a solid PPA but they need to get it online before a new influx of other power producers come in or are forced to sell at a cheaper rate. Through a quick Google search, I see their rate is $0.092 per kwh while the new max rates for geothermal set by EPRA are $0.0569 per kwh. Centum just spent more billions to acquire an extra 37.5% stake in Akiira so i am thinking this should be an indicator that they are ready to build the power plant. If they can get it online, it should be easy to sell off. Otherwise its more billions down the drain and a further reduction in dividend going forward
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Ericsson
#147 Posted : Thursday, January 02, 2025 8:00:02 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,701
Location: NAIROBI
watesh wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
DtheK wrote:
As per HY 2024 investor presentation there are plans to bundle and sell off the North tower as a dollar REIT.
Significant investment into Akiira Geothermal plant, and still looking for more money from other investors(equity).I'm not sure if they've confirmed steam availability.
Why not just buy steam from proven Govt owned wells?
I expect peanut dividends in the short term(less than 50cts).

Plans are a dime a dozen. I doubt the North Tower will become a REIT until it is (almost) fully occupied and that's FY2026 at best. Then finding investors. Not easy.

Akiira seems far from a sure thing in the near future. They need to drill/prove more wells and install turbines. So they need a lot of investment. That is no easy task. Good news might be the need for more power by KPLC in the next 5 years.

The 32c DPS may be a stretch for FY25 unless there is some windfall.


Akiira has a solid PPA but they need to get it online before a new influx of other power producers come in or are forced to sell at a cheaper rate. Through a quick Google search, I see their rate is $0.092 per kwh while the new max rates for geothermal set by EPRA are $0.0569 per kwh. Centum just spent more billions to acquire an extra 37.5% stake in Akiira so i am thinking this should be an indicator that they are ready to build the power plant. If they can get it online, it should be easy to sell off. Otherwise its more billions down the drain and a further reduction in dividend going forward



Centum has no capacity to build Akiira power plant.
That was a bad gamble.
They should have just bought steam from GDC
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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VituVingiSana
#148 Posted : Thursday, January 02, 2025 8:28:15 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,117
Location: Nairobi
watesh wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
DtheK wrote:
As per HY 2024 investor presentation there are plans to bundle and sell off the North tower as a dollar REIT.
Significant investment into Akiira Geothermal plant, and still looking for more money from other investors(equity).I'm not sure if they've confirmed steam availability.
Why not just buy steam from proven Govt owned wells?
I expect peanut dividends in the short term(less than 50cts).

Plans are a dime a dozen. I doubt the North Tower will become a REIT until it is (almost) fully occupied and that's FY2026 at best. Then finding investors. Not easy.

Akiira seems far from a sure thing in the near future. They need to drill/prove more wells and install turbines. So they need a lot of investment. That is no easy task. Good news might be the need for more power by KPLC in the next 5 years.

The 32c DPS may be a stretch for FY25 unless there is some windfall.


Akiira has a solid PPA but they need to get it online before a new influx of other power producers come in or are forced to sell at a cheaper rate. Through a quick Google search, I see their rate is $0.092 per kwh while the new max rates for geothermal set by EPRA are $0.0569 per kwh. Centum just spent more billions to acquire an extra 37.5% stake in Akiira so i am thinking this should be an indicator that they are ready to build the power plant. If they can get it online, it should be easy to sell off. Otherwise its more billions down the drain and a further reduction in dividend going forward
PPA or not, Akiira needs a lot of money to get it online but it will need to find billions in funding. You are right, there must be a plan given Centum spent a lot to add to its stake in Akiira.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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watesh
#149 Posted : Thursday, January 02, 2025 9:01:23 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/10/2014
Posts: 974
Location: Kenya
VituVingiSana wrote:
watesh wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
DtheK wrote:
As per HY 2024 investor presentation there are plans to bundle and sell off the North tower as a dollar REIT.
Significant investment into Akiira Geothermal plant, and still looking for more money from other investors(equity).I'm not sure if they've confirmed steam availability.
Why not just buy steam from proven Govt owned wells?
I expect peanut dividends in the short term(less than 50cts).

Plans are a dime a dozen. I doubt the North Tower will become a REIT until it is (almost) fully occupied and that's FY2026 at best. Then finding investors. Not easy.

Akiira seems far from a sure thing in the near future. They need to drill/prove more wells and install turbines. So they need a lot of investment. That is no easy task. Good news might be the need for more power by KPLC in the next 5 years.

The 32c DPS may be a stretch for FY25 unless there is some windfall.


Akiira has a solid PPA but they need to get it online before a new influx of other power producers come in or are forced to sell at a cheaper rate. Through a quick Google search, I see their rate is $0.092 per kwh while the new max rates for geothermal set by EPRA are $0.0569 per kwh. Centum just spent more billions to acquire an extra 37.5% stake in Akiira so i am thinking this should be an indicator that they are ready to build the power plant. If they can get it online, it should be easy to sell off. Otherwise its more billions down the drain and a further reduction in dividend going forward
PPA or not, Akiira needs a lot of money to get it online but it will need to find billions in funding. You are right, there must be a plan given Centum spent a lot to add to its stake in Akiira.


I just wish they had spent all these billions on expanding Sidian Bank. They would be feeling the snowball effect by now.
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VituVingiSana
#150 Posted : Thursday, January 02, 2025 9:56:52 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,117
Location: Nairobi
watesh wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
watesh wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
DtheK wrote:
As per HY 2024 investor presentation there are plans to bundle and sell off the North tower as a dollar REIT.
Significant investment into Akiira Geothermal plant, and still looking for more money from other investors(equity).I'm not sure if they've confirmed steam availability.
Why not just buy steam from proven Govt owned wells?
I expect peanut dividends in the short term(less than 50cts).

Plans are a dime a dozen. I doubt the North Tower will become a REIT until it is (almost) fully occupied and that's FY2026 at best. Then finding investors. Not easy.

Akiira seems far from a sure thing in the near future. They need to drill/prove more wells and install turbines. So they need a lot of investment. That is no easy task. Good news might be the need for more power by KPLC in the next 5 years.

The 32c DPS may be a stretch for FY25 unless there is some windfall.


Akiira has a solid PPA but they need to get it online before a new influx of other power producers come in or are forced to sell at a cheaper rate. Through a quick Google search, I see their rate is $0.092 per kwh while the new max rates for geothermal set by EPRA are $0.0569 per kwh. Centum just spent more billions to acquire an extra 37.5% stake in Akiira so i am thinking this should be an indicator that they are ready to build the power plant. If they can get it online, it should be easy to sell off. Otherwise its more billions down the drain and a further reduction in dividend going forward
PPA or not, Akiira needs a lot of money to get it online but it will need to find billions in funding. You are right, there must be a plan given Centum spent a lot to add to its stake in Akiira.


I just wish they had spent all these billions on expanding Sidian Bank. They would be feeling the snowball effect by now.

How much did they pay for the 37.5% for Akiira?

Sidian was a tough one. The ROE was not compelling especially as interest rates rose. Why borrow at 19% to earn 12%?

Sidian needed scale and that is not easy to do.

Look at DTB with sub-10% ROE and it has scale vs Sidian.

Back to Akiira, I like your premise. Centum may have seen something that informed their decision to pay up for Akiira when money was very expensive. It will not be a cakewalk. A lot of "selling" is required to find co-investors.

Centum, unless it borrows heavily, does not have the billions [$millions] to invest in drilling and a power plant for Akiira.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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