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KenolKobil 2018 and beyond
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:I agree with @Madebe. I am not going to sugarcoat it. This is a disappointment given the "positive" vibes given to shareholders during the AGM.
Gross Profits are down 10% despite a 8% growth in volumes.
The growth in sales is simply a matter of increased fuel prices.
The net margins have taken a beating.
The Opex is down but that's a sleight of hand given the non-recurring KPRL expense.
There a +52mn turnaround in forex gains but that is a fickle line item. It's usually a forex loss given the general trend of the KES.
The Finance Charges are up huge given the higher oil prices and volume growth. Borrowings at 10.7bn which is almost +50% YOY.
After accounting for the options awarded to Ohana, the EPS has dipped to 1.065 for 1H which is a far cry from the 2.50 - 2.90 expected for the FY.
No, I am not impressed though I do admit that 1H 2018 has been tough for many firms given the high KES interest rates, increasing LIBOR and general malaise. KK needs to push all the right buttons in 2H to meet the 2.50 target.
2H will be tough with what's going on. I wonder what the hit will be on margins and volumes when VAT is likely to be introduced in September.
Interim div?sioni mzuri "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,684 Location: NAIROBI
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mlennyma wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:I agree with @Madebe. I am not going to sugarcoat it. This is a disappointment given the "positive" vibes given to shareholders during the AGM.
Gross Profits are down 10% despite a 8% growth in volumes.
The growth in sales is simply a matter of increased fuel prices.
The net margins have taken a beating.
The Opex is down but that's a sleight of hand given the non-recurring KPRL expense.
There a +52mn turnaround in forex gains but that is a fickle line item. It's usually a forex loss given the general trend of the KES.
The Finance Charges are up huge given the higher oil prices and volume growth. Borrowings at 10.7bn which is almost +50% YOY.
After accounting for the options awarded to Ohana, the EPS has dipped to 1.065 for 1H which is a far cry from the 2.50 - 2.90 expected for the FY.
No, I am not impressed though I do admit that 1H 2018 has been tough for many firms given the high KES interest rates, increasing LIBOR and general malaise. KK needs to push all the right buttons in 2H to meet the 2.50 target.
2H will be tough with what's going on. I wonder what the hit will be on margins and volumes when VAT is likely to be introduced in September.
Interim div?sioni mzuri 30 cents Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,103 Location: Nairobi
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36 cents. Payable 15 Oct. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Member Joined: 10/7/2010 Posts: 251 Location: nairobi
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Ericsson wrote:mlennyma wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:I agree with @Madebe. I am not going to sugarcoat it. This is a disappointment given the "positive" vibes given to shareholders during the AGM.
Gross Profits are down 10% despite a 8% growth in volumes.
The growth in sales is simply a matter of increased fuel prices.
The net margins have taken a beating.
The Opex is down but that's a sleight of hand given the non-recurring KPRL expense.
There a +52mn turnaround in forex gains but that is a fickle line item. It's usually a forex loss given the general trend of the KES.
The Finance Charges are up huge given the higher oil prices and volume growth. Borrowings at 10.7bn which is almost +50% YOY.
After accounting for the options awarded to Ohana, the EPS has dipped to 1.065 for 1H which is a far cry from the 2.50 - 2.90 expected for the FY.
No, I am not impressed though I do admit that 1H 2018 has been tough for many firms given the high KES interest rates, increasing LIBOR and general malaise. KK needs to push all the right buttons in 2H to meet the 2.50 target.
2H will be tough with what's going on. I wonder what the hit will be on margins and volumes when VAT is likely to be introduced in September.
Interim div?sioni mzuri 30 cents we now wait and see what TOTAL will post for ease of comparison. i was expecting the one offs to really boost the earnings....
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:36 cents. Payable 15 Oct. 36 and 30cts but i can believe your figure since this is your cow "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 5/25/2012 Posts: 4,105 Location: 08c
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mlennyma wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:36 cents. Payable 15 Oct. 36 and 30cts but i can believe your figure since this is your cow Quote:Interim dividends
The Board of Directors has declared an interim dividend of KShs. 0.36 per share (2017 KShs. 0.30 interim dividend). The interim dividend, which is subject to withholding tax, will be paid on or around 15th October 2018 to shareholders in the register at the close of business on 24th August 2018.
By order of the Board Pesa Nane plans to be shilingi when he grows up.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/4/2016 Posts: 1,997 Location: Kitale
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Pesa Nane wrote:mlennyma wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:36 cents. Payable 15 Oct. 36 and 30cts but i can believe your figure since this is your cow Quote:Interim dividends
The Board of Directors has declared an interim dividend of KShs. 0.36 per share (2017 KShs. 0.30 interim dividend). The interim dividend, which is subject to withholding tax, will be paid on or around 15th October 2018 to shareholders in the register at the close of business on 24th August 2018.
By order of the Board This is a good gesture to shareholders. Towards the goal of financial freedom
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,684 Location: NAIROBI
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Ebenyo wrote:Pesa Nane wrote:mlennyma wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:36 cents. Payable 15 Oct. 36 and 30cts but i can believe your figure since this is your cow Quote:Interim dividends
The Board of Directors has declared an interim dividend of KShs. 0.36 per share (2017 KShs. 0.30 interim dividend). The interim dividend, which is subject to withholding tax, will be paid on or around 15th October 2018 to shareholders in the register at the close of business on 24th August 2018.
By order of the Board This is a good gesture to shareholders. In the current drought environment with market downturn Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 5/25/2012 Posts: 4,105 Location: 08c
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 Pesa Nane plans to be shilingi when he grows up.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/4/2016 Posts: 1,997 Location: Kitale
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These means supply will be high and i expect demand to be low due to the huge volume of 79 million shares.A very good opportunity for KK shareholders to increase their holdings at low price. Towards the goal of financial freedom
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
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Ebenyo wrote:These means supply will be high and i expect demand to be low due to the huge volume of 79 million shares.A very good opportunity for KK shareholders to increase their holdings at low price. The market is very bad for this,below 10bob is coming "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,684 Location: NAIROBI
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mlennyma wrote:Ebenyo wrote:These means supply will be high and i expect demand to be low due to the huge volume of 79 million shares.A very good opportunity for KK shareholders to increase their holdings at low price. The market is very bad for this,below 10bob is coming @vvs favorite Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,103 Location: Nairobi
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The shares listed are ESOP shares and they can't be sold without following the ESOP rules. The dilution was captured in the FY 2017 Annual Report. I like KK but I am completely out of cash  Warren Buffett: "Socks or stocks, we like them when they are on sale" so I am going to recycle my KK dividend into more KK shares. Given what Ohana & his team have done in the past 5 years, I am OK with KK for the next 5 years if they can manage KK in a similar manner. The catch is that GoK is poorly managed and the pain goes all the way down. That said FY 2018 and FY 2019 are looking to be awful for the Kenyan economy and NSE. Look at GoK: - 57% of revenues used to service debt - Revenue targets may be missed - 50% debt is FX - SGR/ICD is still a mess - SGR is not cashflow positive - More debt as SGR heads west to UG - Massive power projects (excess supply) which GoK has to subsidize - Higher taxes I am only buying firms with positive cashflow, low debt and good management but that's not a guarantee of success. Perhaps one should buy FX (USD, etc). Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,518 Location: nairobi
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mlennyma wrote:Ebenyo wrote:These means supply will be high and i expect demand to be low due to the huge volume of 79 million shares.A very good opportunity for KK shareholders to increase their holdings at low price. The market is very bad for this,below 10bob is coming KES 9 bob by Thursday next week
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,518 Location: nairobi
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mlennyma wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:mlennyma wrote:heri wrote:Just when i decided to add more the price shoots up .what is the latest news where is @vitu vingi to clap his hands at 19 @vvs needs to inform us on the latest happenings at KK, noting that Vivo has started to capture the local market recently, notably the downstream segment https://www.exchange.co....op-oil-dealer-in-kenya/ I am with @mieenyma i.e. I want to buy more shares. I am not a seller that 19. How did Kk manage to emerge so strong in such a competition when it was almost collapsing? total and vivo failed,they should be far ahead of kk,with total trading at about 35bob a piece it's sensible for Kk to cross 20bob Hallucinations
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,684 Location: NAIROBI
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VituVingiSana wrote:The shares listed are ESOP shares and they can't be sold without following the ESOP rules. The dilution was captured in the FY 2017 Annual Report. I like KK but I am completely out of cash Warren Buffett: "Socks or stocks, we like them when they are on sale" so I am going to recycle my KK dividend into more KK shares. Given what Ohana & his team have done in the past 5 years, I am OK with KK for the next 5 years if they can manage KK in a similar manner. The catch is that GoK is poorly managed and the pain goes all the way down. That said FY 2018 and FY 2019 are looking to be awful for the Kenyan economy and NSE. Look at GoK: - 57% of revenues used to service debt - Revenue targets may be missed - 50% debt is FX - SGR/ICD is still a mess - SGR is not cashflow positive - More debt as SGR heads west to UG - Massive power projects (excess supply) which GoK has to subsidize - Higher taxes I am only buying firms with positive cashflow, low debt and good management but that's not a guarantee of success. Perhaps one should buy FX (USD, etc). Contradicted yourself by buying ARM,holding onto Centum whose debt ain't low Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,103 Location: Nairobi
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Ericsson wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:The shares listed are ESOP shares and they can't be sold without following the ESOP rules. The dilution was captured in the FY 2017 Annual Report. I like KK but I am completely out of cash Warren Buffett: "Socks or stocks, we like them when they are on sale" so I am going to recycle my KK dividend into more KK shares. Given what Ohana & his team have done in the past 5 years, I am OK with KK for the next 5 years if they can manage KK in a similar manner. The catch is that GoK is poorly managed and the pain goes all the way down. That said FY 2018 and FY 2019 are looking to be awful for the Kenyan economy and NSE. Look at GoK: - 57% of revenues used to service debt - Revenue targets may be missed - 50% debt is FX - SGR/ICD is still a mess - SGR is not cashflow positive - More debt as SGR heads west to UG - Massive power projects (excess supply) which GoK has to subsidize - Higher taxes I am only buying firms with positive cashflow, low debt and good management but that's not a guarantee of success. Perhaps one should buy FX (USD, etc). Contradicted yourself by buying ARM holding onto Centum whose debt ain't low ARM was uncharacteristic for me and I gave my reasons for buying a (few) ARM. It's a pity I did not have the info as to what the banks were thinking at the time. In my books, they are worth zero. Value Investing (buying at a discount to NAV) isn't guaranteed to produce a winner. Centum: Tier 2 holding. The LTV is less than 50% + I am buying at 50% of NAV. FY18 and FY19 will be very slow/awful for their real estate business. I will hold on. Value Investing (buying at a discount to NAV) isn't guaranteed to produce a winner but I have done well using that approach. On the other hand, given how KE is being (poorly) managed, perhaps it's time to buy FX. The core portfolio (80%) remains the same: I&M - Not easy for banks in FY18/19 Risk: Loan defaults and fraud KenRe - Plods along but lots of cash. Risk: Politics KK - Ohana has done well. Debt = Inventory. Risk: Squeezed margins Unga - Profitable but I do NOT trust the Ndegwas. I want to exit but at a better price. Risk: Shady tactics Tier 2 Centum - Bought more at sub-30 given the 50%+ discount to stated NAV. Risk: Write-down of asset values ((Akiira, Amu, Sidian, Two Rivers) Equity - I remain a JM fan but I (luckily) significantly reduced my position. Risk: Defaults and fraud Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,684 Location: NAIROBI
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After Segman,now it's Ohana's time to eat https://www.businessdail...028-12gb227z/index.html
The Capital Markets Authority (CMA) has approved KenolKobil’s plans to have its Group managing director David Ohana acquire up to 88 million shares valued at Sh906.4 million in the oil marketer. The regulator has allowed the Nairobi Securities Exchange-listed firm to list 79 million shares at the end of this month, adding to the nine million units that have already been issued. Mr Ohana has an option to buy the shares over a period of six years at a price of Sh10.3 each, representing a discount of 22 per cent to yesterday’s closing price of Sh13.2. Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,684 Location: NAIROBI
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obiero wrote:mlennyma wrote:Ebenyo wrote:These means supply will be high and i expect demand to be low due to the huge volume of 79 million shares.A very good opportunity for KK shareholders to increase their holdings at low price. The market is very bad for this,below 10bob is coming KES 9 bob by Thursday next week Very possible Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/7/2012 Posts: 11,908
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Ericsson wrote:obiero wrote:mlennyma wrote:Ebenyo wrote:These means supply will be high and i expect demand to be low due to the huge volume of 79 million shares.A very good opportunity for KK shareholders to increase their holdings at low price. The market is very bad for this,below 10bob is coming KES 9 bob by Thursday next week Very possible Wacheni propaganda, these shares are held in trust as ESOP and will not be offloaded in the market just like that - like next week. Therefore the 79m shares will not affect the current market dynamics. I know you guys are targeting VVS. In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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