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Stocks vs Buying a house - A tale of two kenyans
Mike Ock
#71 Posted : Saturday, July 16, 2016 2:37:06 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/22/2015
Posts: 682
Back to the original question. One very important thing is that the hypothetical situations didn't take into account the very important vagaries of life. In my years, I've learnt the rosiest of predictions can be scuttled by all manner of shock occurences. Which of the two routes allows for quick redirection of cash if life decides to present one of it's unpleasant surprises in your face? The stocks route without a doubt. If you want to lock yourself into usurious debt to our banks for the next 20 years of your life, with an illiquid asset, you better hope that God is with you bega kwa bega, uso kwa uso, for the whole period.
VituVingiSana
#72 Posted : Saturday, July 16, 2016 4:04:59 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,344
Location: Nairobi
DBLyon wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
DBLyon wrote:
Horton wrote:
This story is too skewed to favour stocks
1. It assumes an extremely modest growth of 6.5% pa in the price of the apartment.
2. Shows that the apartment is currently yielding only 3% which part of nairobi is yielding this low?


As an example, a property I bought 4 years ago on mortgage from stanchart. Mortgage is at 10.9%, the property has doubled in value and it is now fetching an 11% yield. Therefore rent adequately covers mortgage. And you cant beat double value in 4 years.


Agreed. I also think that a mortgage is not all bad if you are financially savvy. Especially if you get the right rate like 10.9% from Stanchart.
The conditions were onerous for many Kenyans. Employment (salary) not business (business income). Limited amount was available for on-lending. Overall, I am not sure how much Stanchart gave out in mortgages. It did increase Stanchart's profile as a retail bank willing to lend to individuals.

A property I bought against many people's advice has literally tripled in value in 7 years. The rent pays the mortgage. The rent in that period has also increased significantly by 50%. And I have been able to take small loans against the increased value to do other things. A house is the easiest thing to use as security, at least in this country.

Back then...In July 2016
Where can one get a mortgage at 11%? GoK is paying 13% on risk-free bonds. Which bank will lend at anything lower than 13%?
After the price increase 2x for @Horton over 4 years and 3x for @DB in 7 years... will the trend continue?


@VVS, Certainly, the rates are high now. The best commercial mortgage rate is still Stanchart at 14.9%.
Is it still available? What are the T&Cs?
I still maintain that for a finsavvy person it still works. To hold down the price as you make money elsewhere aggressively to pay down the debt. Offplan buys etc.

https://www.sc.com/ke/borrow/mortgages.html
As low as 14.9% which means the minimum of 14.9% but most would not get that. Once Oigara said KCB gives loans at 10%, when GoK was paying 14% on risk-free T-Bonds, Oigara glossed over was if these loans were subsidized by employers, DFIDs, in KES or USD, conditions that many would not meet, duration, commitment fees, etc
The parents were paying a mortgage at twice the amount of rent the neighbours were paying back in the day. By the time I grew up the mortgage instalments were a fraction of the neighbours' rent. One sixth, approximately. Not to mention the value if one was to sell. Clearly I'm a believer. smile

Is that in Kenya? In some countries eg USA one can lock in interest rates for upto 30 years. After the 'goldenberg' era when GoK paid upto 80% pa, most banks stopped long-term fixed-rate loans.
I could be wrong... Which banks offer long-term fixed rate [so 12% is 12% even after 5 years even if GoK was borrowing at 4% and now paying 13%]?
Some banks give their employees loans at 6% while GoK has 3% loans. These are not for the rest of us.

Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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