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Insurance Counters at NSE - Valuation & recommendation
mwekez@ji
#141 Posted : Wednesday, October 02, 2013 10:28:49 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
Pan Africa Insurance launches low cost life insurance in partnership with Airtel Kenya

Pan Africa Insurance has launched a low cost life insurance product in partnership with Airtel Kenya to grow its market share of life insurance premiums. The product will provide life insurance cover for a range of between KES 25,000 – KES 100,000, at monthly premiums of between KES 60 and KES 180. The premiums will be payable via Airtel Kenya’s mobile money service Airtel Money, in a bid to tap the underpenetrated low income insurance market in Kenya. Pan Africa Insurance has the leading market share in the life insurance segment at 31.3%, and the low income insurance market is receiving increased interest given heightened competition in the middle and high income markets. Similarly, UAP Insurance, one of the foremost non-life insurers in Kenya which is 13.7% owned by Centum Investment, has launched a low-cost general insurance product in partnership with Uchumi Supermarkets. (Source; Business Daily, Kestrel Research)
mwekez@ji
#142 Posted : Wednesday, November 13, 2013 3:11:21 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
SIB Insurance Sector Valuation update (13.11.2013)

PanAfric – BUY – TP 96.20 – 38.4% upside
Liberty – BUY – TP 17.91 – 37.8% upside
CIC – BUY – TP 6.17 – 35.7% upside
Britam – BUY – TP 13.51 – 31.1% upside
KenyaRe – BUY – TP 21.24 – 30.3% upside
Jubilee – BUY – TP 341.02 – 18.8% upside (Initiation of Coverage)
young
#143 Posted : Wednesday, November 13, 2013 3:15:20 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,037
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
mwekez@ji wrote:
SIB Insurance Sector Valuation update (13.11.2013)

PanAfric – BUY – TP 96.20 – 38.4% upside
Liberty – BUY – TP 17.91 – 37.8% upside
CIC – BUY – TP 6.17 – 35.7% upside
Britam – BUY – TP 13.51 – 31.1% upside
KenyaRe – BUY – TP 21.24 – 30.3% upside
Jubilee – BUY – TP 341.02 – 18.8% upside (Initiation of Coverage)



I concur on Panafric & JUB
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
guru267
#144 Posted : Wednesday, November 13, 2013 3:20:43 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
mwekez@ji wrote:
SIB Insurance Sector Valuation update (13.11.2013)

PanAfric – BUY – TP 96.20 – 38.4% upside
Liberty – BUY – TP 17.91 – 37.8% upside
CIC – BUY – TP 6.17 – 35.7% upside
Britam – BUY – TP 13.51 – 31.1% upside
KenyaRe – BUY – TP 21.24 – 30.3% upside
Jubilee – BUY – TP 341.02 – 18.8% upside (Initiation of Coverage)



I'm firmly in Pan Africa and Kenya re! smile

I also do agree with Liberty & Jub...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
young
#145 Posted : Wednesday, November 13, 2013 3:25:33 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,037
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
My peak estimate for Panafric in the next six months is 105 bob.
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
Cde Monomotapa
#146 Posted : Wednesday, November 13, 2013 3:28:16 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Interesting. ION, got a new revelation about Kenya-Re last evening which will be shared in due course smile
young
#147 Posted : Wednesday, November 13, 2013 3:38:29 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,037
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Interesting. ION, got a new revelation about Kenya-Re last evening which will be shared in due course smile


Hope part of your revelation will be that the board and management have decided to change from their miserly dividend policy ?
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
jerry
#148 Posted : Wednesday, November 13, 2013 3:46:09 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/29/2006
Posts: 2,570
young wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Interesting. ION, got a new revelation about Kenya-Re last evening which will be shared in due course smile


Hope part of your revelation will be that the board and management have decided to change from their miserly dividend policy ?

Seconded.
The opposite of courage is not cowardice, it's conformity.
Cde Monomotapa
#149 Posted : Wednesday, November 13, 2013 3:47:43 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
young wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Interesting. ION, got a new revelation about Kenya-Re last evening which will be shared in due course smile


Hope part of your revelation will be that the board and management have decided to change from their miserly dividend policy ?


Patience...it has more to do with revenues.
patrazi
#150 Posted : Wednesday, November 13, 2013 6:28:47 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 7/18/2012
Posts: 76
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
young wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Interesting. ION, got a new revelation about Kenya-Re last evening which will be shared in due course smile


Hope part of your revelation will be that the board and management have decided to change from their miserly dividend policy ?


Patience...it has more to do with revenues.

Revenues likely to go up or down?
patrazi
#151 Posted : Saturday, November 16, 2013 6:54:17 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 7/18/2012
Posts: 76
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
young wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Interesting. ION, got a new revelation about Kenya-Re last evening which will be shared in due course smile


Hope part of your revelation will be that the board and management have decided to change from their miserly dividend policy ?


Patience...it has more to do with revenues.

Waiting....
Cde Monomotapa
#152 Posted : Sunday, November 17, 2013 2:55:40 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
OK. The alleged revelation came as a flash when reading the Report-of-the-Presidential-Task-force-on-Parastatal-Reforms released on Tuesday in the pm.

On page 139 it says;

There is also a need for the Ministry of Health to accord the Board operational autonomy and ensure that it operates the Fund like any other medical scheme. In this regard it is recommended that:

i. The National Hospital Insurance Fund should be allowed to operate like any other medical insurance service provider for its members and should be restructured to fully comply with the Insurance Act.

ii. The Fund should be regulated by Insurance Regulatory Authority.

Proposed Timeline: By December 2013

So what popped in my mind was whether NHIF being reformed and regulated under the Insurance Act means it has to re-insure like all other players? Is it already re-insured in its current form or are shortfalls covered by the exchequer? (needs answers, help!)

So you see it is speculative as the recommendations could go either way, but I believe it will be implemented as one of Jubilee's pledges of universal health care for all - Obama, sorry, Jubilee Care smile

Look here for NHIF's latest numbers, not bad: http://www.nhif.or.ke/he...=default&page=&

And the task force report: http://www.scribd.com/do...e-on-Parastatal-Reforms

Your thoughts? Thanks.


Kausha
#153 Posted : Monday, November 18, 2013 10:16:36 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/8/2007
Posts: 808
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
OK. The alleged revelation came as a flash when reading the Report-of-the-Presidential-Task-force-on-Parastatal-Reforms released on Tuesday in the pm.

On page 139 it says;

There is also a need for the Ministry of Health to accord the Board operational autonomy and ensure that it operates the Fund like any other medical scheme. In this regard it is recommended that:

i. The National Hospital Insurance Fund should be allowed to operate like any other medical insurance service provider for its members and should be restructured to fully comply with the Insurance Act.

ii. The Fund should be regulated by Insurance Regulatory Authority.

Proposed Timeline: By December 2013

So what popped in my mind was whether NHIF being reformed and regulated under the Insurance Act means it has to re-insure like all other players? Is it already re-insured in its current form or are shortfalls covered by the exchequer? (needs answers, help!)

So you see it is speculative as the recommendations could go either way, but I believe it will be implemented as one of Jubilee's pledges of universal health care for all - Obama, sorry, Jubilee Care smile

Look here for NHIF's latest numbers, not bad: http://www.nhif.or.ke/he...=default&page=&

And the task force report: http://www.scribd.com/do...e-on-Parastatal-Reforms

Your thoughts? Thanks.



Spend 3.3B to administer 9.6B i.e 34%. Way to expensive and of little value to members! From my medical benefit administration experience NHIF should spend 15-17.5% for their costs & surplus(personnel, admin, Depn & Amort). 10% should then go to selling costs / brokerage. However since their contributions are by Fiat the 10% should be passed on to members as benefits and not to staff ad Fat to bathe in and consume.

Ideally in 2012 NHIF should have operated at total costs of 1.4B, paid out benefits of 8.2B - 8.5B and possibly retained a nominal surplus from the 357m investment and other income from the or nothing at all. In other words NHIF should have paid 40% more in benefits last year than they are paying. Instead of paying 1,800 for members for a bed per day they should have paid 2,500 which would make a difference even in a private hospital with a bed charge of 8k-9k. Instead they retain surpluses which they use to engage in mediocre projects which have mediocre returns but we know why these projects are engaged in - to provide routes to pilfer cash from the fund.
VituVingiSana
#154 Posted : Monday, November 18, 2013 10:57:10 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,131
Location: Nairobi
NHIF is unlikely to re-insure AND if it does so... I would NOT want to be a (shareholder of a) re-insurer of an entity whose sole purpose is to LOSE money. Positive profits & cashflows count more than higher revenue/turnover.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
King G
#155 Posted : Monday, November 18, 2013 12:57:34 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/20/2012
Posts: 3,855
Location: Othumo
CFCI smile smile smile
Thieves
Cde Monomotapa
#156 Posted : Monday, November 18, 2013 2:14:20 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
VituVingiSana wrote:
NHIF is unlikely to re-insure AND if it does so... I would NOT want to be a (shareholder of a) re-insurer of an entity whose sole purpose is to LOSE money. Positive profits & cashflows count more than higher revenue/turnover.


@kausha, @VVS thanks for your responses. Very much appreciated. In response, I'll say;

1. Compliance with the Insurance Act will be 100% and that's why the recommendation say for NHIF operate like any other medical scheme. Take NBK for instance. It is majority govt but is it not fully in compliance with & regulated under the Banking Act, hence, CBK?

2. I believe re-insurance is re-insuring risk premiums/contributions, not operations. Hence, from the numbers provided NHIF collected 9.6B and paid-out 6B in claims. That's a under-writing surplus of 3.6B? I don't see the adverse need to turn to a re-insurer there.

3. The guidance given by NHIF board is under-pinned with great prospects of reform & transformation to operate a lot more professionally going-forward. Sure, there have been problems in the past, but that is now the whole essence of reforms.

Thus, I still view Kenya-Re a stronger proposition in the event.

VituVingiSana
#157 Posted : Monday, November 18, 2013 2:48:39 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,131
Location: Nairobi
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
NHIF is unlikely to re-insure AND if it does so... I would NOT want to be a (shareholder of a) re-insurer of an entity whose sole purpose is to LOSE money. Positive profits & cashflows count more than higher revenue/turnover.


@kausha, @VVS thanks for your responses. Very much appreciated. In response, I'll say;

1. Compliance with the Insurance Act will be 100% and that's why the recommendation say for NHIF operate like any other medical scheme. Take NBK for instance. It is majority govt but is it not fully in compliance with & regulated under the Banking Act, hence, CBK?

2. I believe re-insurance is re-insuring risk premiums/contributions, not operations. Hence, from the numbers provided NHIF collected 9.6B and paid-out 6B in claims. That's a under-writing surplus of 3.6B? I don't see the adverse need to turn to a re-insurer there.

3. The guidance given by NHIF board is under-pinned with great prospects of reform & transformation to operate a lot more professionally going-forward. Sure, there have been problems in the past, but that is now the whole essence of reforms.

Thus, I still view Kenya-Re a stronger proposition in the event.


1) I did not understand your argument.
2) I doubt there will be an underwriting surplus for NHIF. Anyway, I do not know BUT aren't admin expenses expensed to get to the Underwriting Surplus/Deficit?
3) Reforms? Sure.

This is not an indictment of KenRe but of NHIF unless KenRe reinsures NHIF!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Cde Monomotapa
#158 Posted : Monday, November 18, 2013 2:53:01 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
smile
Kausha
#159 Posted : Monday, November 18, 2013 3:21:01 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/8/2007
Posts: 808
@Cde. NHIF did not make an underwriting profit. They are a medical scheme and not insurer. They made a surplus. If and when they are an insurer they will have to generate and file a rate card with IRA and their current offering may change dramatically which may mean more costs to members. If there are reforms then they ought to happen now before converting to an underwriter else we will be developing another KNAC which will collapse even sooner. The surplus NHIF is generating is actually stupid for lack of a better word. They pay paltry sums for even the inpatients at KNH and leave a small surplus on the table. Even your insurer can pay half the benefits and end up declaring a huge surplus.
Cde Monomotapa
#160 Posted : Monday, November 18, 2013 3:40:31 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Kausha wrote:
@Cde. NHIF did not make an underwriting profit. They are a medical scheme and not insurer. They made a surplus. If and when they are an insurer they will have to generate and file a rate card with IRA and their current offering may change dramatically which may mean more costs to members. If there are reforms then they ought to happen now before converting to an underwriter else we will be developing another KNAC which will collapse even sooner. The surplus NHIF is generating is actually stupid for lack of a better word. They pay paltry sums for even the inpatients at KNH and leave a small surplus on the table. Even your insurer can pay half the benefits and end up declaring a huge surplus.


I think we have a mix up here. Where we are looking at this issue in different eyes i.e from a investor's & from a member's. smile

Scheme, insurer whichever but we're in agreement that member contributions, like premiums, are to be paid and can either run a surplus or deficit depending on claims.

So my thinking is how a re-insurer can benefit from such (successful) conversion?
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