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How to tell NSE has bottomed out

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cnn		#141 Posted : Monday, July 25, 2011 8:30:42 PM
Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/17/2009 Posts: 1,619		Safcom traded 10 million shares.
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QW25071985		#142 Posted : Monday, July 25, 2011 8:36:45 PM
Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/25/2011 Posts: 946		Sober wrote: And safcom trades 98 million shares. I am pretty scared because i dont know what to expect. wacha banghi ndugu . ahahah . u mean 9.8 millie ..
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Sober		#143 Posted : Monday, July 25, 2011 8:44:16 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 11/27/2007 Posts: 3,604		QW25071985 wrote: Sober wrote: And safcom trades 98 million shares. I am pretty scared because i dont know what to expect. wacha banghi ndugu . ahahah . u mean 9.8 millie .. Sorry guys. Was talking of friday‘s volume. Even ten million today is quite considering the mood at the bourse. African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
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youcan'tstopusnow		#144 Posted : Monday, July 25, 2011 8:54:06 PM
Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa		When it trades 50 million shares, maybe the 'Bear' will be over (would still be dwarfed by KCB's turnover from the past few trading sessions) GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Sober		#145 Posted : Monday, July 25, 2011 9:26:40 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 11/27/2007 Posts: 3,604		youcan'tstopusnow wrote: When it trades 50 million shares, maybe the 'Bear' will be over (would still be dwarfed by KCB's turnover from the past few trading sessions) Safaricom should pull a ‘share amalgamation‘ stunt. Opposite of a split. The price will rally ahead of books closure and the price will be stable, after a couple of years the share will have become too expensive then the then shareholders we will approve a share split. Wow! I am a genius. African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
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Genghis Khan		#146 Posted : Tuesday, July 26, 2011 8:55:15 AM
Rank: Member Joined: 8/5/2010 Posts: 335 Location: Nairobi		Cde Monomotapa wrote: youcan'tstopusnow wrote: Genghis Khan, hiyo theory ya NSE falls in January because of "School Fees" tulikataa. How many of the NSE investors are parents? If we know the percentage of investors who are parents with school-going children is when we can say for sure. Until then hiyo ni porojo... !! Flawless Fatality !! @ycsun. Boss, be kind!!! I think my post was simple enough but I can try to make it clearer... 1. Take what you know about the past (seasonal cycle) and develop a mathematical model for a base line... 2. Take what you expect to happen in the future and superimpose on your base line... youcan'tstopusnow wrote: If we know the percentage of investors who are parents with school-going children is when we can say for sure Generally, people aged 30 to 60 are parents... lets not fight about that... @Cde, the blow wasn't fatal, he lives still! "I'd rather be lucky than clever... every time!" - ME "The problem is not what we don't know... it's what we know for sure that just ain't!" - MARK TWAIN "Space we can recover... time never!" - NAPOLEON BONAPARTE
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Muthawamunene		#147 Posted : Tuesday, July 26, 2011 10:40:05 AM
Rank: Member Joined: 1/3/2011 Posts: 264 Location: Nairobi		the period aint too bad. i got out some time ago. n am slowly planning a re- entry. doin my saving to the max in anticipation. with counters like centum at sub tweny bob, investor heaven.
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Cde Monomotapa		#148 Posted : Tuesday, July 26, 2011 11:05:02 AM
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964		Genghis Khan wrote: Cde Monomotapa wrote: youcan'tstopusnow wrote: Genghis Khan, hiyo theory ya NSE falls in January because of "School Fees" tulikataa. How many of the NSE investors are parents? If we know the percentage of investors who are parents with school-going children is when we can say for sure. Until then hiyo ni porojo... !! Flawless Fatality !! @ycsun. Boss, be kind!!! I think my post was simple enough but I can try to make it clearer... 1. Take what you know about the past (seasonal cycle) and develop a mathematical model for a base line... 2. Take what you expect to happen in the future and superimpose on your base line... youcan'tstopusnow wrote: If we know the percentage of investors who are parents with school-going children is when we can say for sure Generally, people aged 30 to 60 are parents... lets not fight about that... @Cde, the blow wasn't fatal, he lives still! . Cool
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Sober		#149 Posted : Tuesday, July 26, 2011 11:30:49 AM
Rank: Elder Joined: 11/27/2007 Posts: 3,604		Muthawamunene wrote: the period aint too bad. i got out some time ago. n am slowly planning a re- entry. doin my saving to the max in anticipation. with counters like centum at sub tweny bob, investor heaven. i would consider Centum at 13 bob. if it is not there in august it will be there in 2012, i will be very patient with it. African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
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Magnetic Touch		#150 Posted : Tuesday, July 26, 2011 12:15:16 PM
Rank: Member Joined: 12/31/2008 Posts: 90		The NSE bought a one way ticket early on in the year. Destination - below 3000 on the index. We are close to the halfway point towards the end of our journey.
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kenyainvestor		#151 Posted : Tuesday, July 26, 2011 12:38:04 PM
Rank: Member Joined: 7/12/2011 Posts: 194		Magnetic Touch wrote: The NSE bought a one way ticket early on in the year. Destination - below 3000 on the index. We are close to the halfway point towards the end of our journey. Would you term this phenomena 'normal seasonal market activity'? LATEST BLOG POST: NSE BANKING SECTOR REPORT - THE TOP 5 FACEBOOK: Kenya Investing TWITTER HANDLE: @kenyainvestor
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Sober		#152 Posted : Tuesday, July 26, 2011 12:55:01 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 11/27/2007 Posts: 3,604		Magnetic Touch wrote: The NSE bought a one way ticket early on in the year. Destination - below 3000 on the index. We are close to the halfway point towards the end of our journey. can someone tell me please when the market will rebound?! i dont wanna hear of the election talk because that means the index will be 900 considering the current rate of drowning. African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
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VituVingiSana		#153 Posted : Tuesday, July 26, 2011 1:05:06 PM
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,103 Location: Nairobi		Election Fever - As we head towards the polls, it is an uncertain time since we have no idea who is the real front-runner. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - *to paraphrase Warren Buffett*
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic		#154 Posted : Tuesday, July 26, 2011 2:02:46 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,220 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli		Last Friday, i was optimistic of some small turnaround this week but the latest KPLC stunt jus stinks to the high heavens n might surely send the NSE well below 3,000 points in the not so distant future as the PNU n ODM intensify ways of getting campaign money! @SufficientlyP
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hisah		#155 Posted : Tuesday, July 26, 2011 9:13:32 PM
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977		Traders... NSE is now ready for a bounce. Happy now Volume has gone through the index and the index is now flattening for a bounce. Selling pressure is ebbing. Techs - RSI so overbought - weekly to be precise since June 6th. I'll be very simple with some very simple charts. Note these are fast trades, so no fundies analysis apply... NSE - http://live.mystocks.co.ke/stock=%5EN20I - Look at the volume Counters likely to trend in tandem with the NSE bounce. KCB - http://live.mystocks.co.ke/stock=KCB - Volume spike NIC - http://live.mystocks.co.ke/stock=NIC - Volume spike Safcom - http://live.mystocks.co.ke/stock=SCOM - Volume spike CMC - http://live.mystocks.co.ke/stock=CMC CFCI - http://live.mystocks.co.ke/stock=CFCI COOP - http://live.mystocks.co.ke/stock=COOP Equity - http://live.mystocks.co.ke/stock=EQTY Jubilee - http://live.mystocks.co.ke/stock=JUB Stanchart - http://live.mystocks.co.ke/stock=SCBK Crown - http://live.mystocks.co.ke/stock=BERG Mumias - http://live.mystocks.co.ke/stock=MSC - Forming an inverse H&S supported by volume and if the pattern plays out - target 8 - 8.20. Total up, while KK will head down! http://live.mystocks.co.ke/stock=TOTL So what are my grabs - KCB, NIC, Scom and some MSC in that order. KCB's volume @22.50 is too huge to ignore... To watch out for volume. NMG - http://live.mystocks.co.ke/stock=NMG KQ - http://live.mystocks.co.ke/stock=KQ TPS - http://live.mystocks.co.ke/stock=TPSE Uchumi - http://live.mystocks.co.ke/stock=UCHM Centum - http://live.mystocks.co.ke/stock=ICDC Kengen - http://live.mystocks.co.ke/stock=KEGN DTK - http://live.mystocks.co.ke/stock=DTK - This has reached the objective of the H&S pattern @108 - 109. Strong support here. Something interesting with CFC - http://live.mystocks.co.ke/stock=CFC Worst chart ever - Neveready aka paka since Jan 2011... Freefall to oblivion! Heart bypass triggered and on overdrive... To be sold while NSE rebounds - KK - Many won't like this analogy but the volumes says so - peak volumes at highs = smart money exit - http://live.mystocks.co.ke/stock=KENO And finally media signal, usually meant to scare you away from the upturn - http://www.nation.co.ke/...06/1206080/-/ux1o1kz/-/ NSE rebound level - 3800 - 3900. If it head to 4000 the better, but doubtful... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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kenyainvestor		#156 Posted : Tuesday, July 26, 2011 11:31:20 PM
Rank: Member Joined: 7/12/2011 Posts: 194		hisah, your posts are certainly a breath of fresh air in Wazua. Don't stop You are right about you receiving a lot of flak about saying KenolKobil will fall. Will today's brilliant results and interim dividend have no impact on the share price for the rest of the week? I think a 50% increase might have been factored into the price, BUT certainly not an 80%+ rise and an interim dividend to boot... NB:I am talking to the little part of your soul that is actually a fundi... LATEST BLOG POST: NSE BANKING SECTOR REPORT - THE TOP 5 FACEBOOK: Kenya Investing TWITTER HANDLE: @kenyainvestor
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hisah		#157 Posted : Wednesday, July 27, 2011 7:02:43 AM
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977		kenyainvestor wrote: hisah, your posts are certainly a breath of fresh air in Wazua. Don't stop You are right about you receiving a lot of flak about saying KenolKobil will fall. Will today's brilliant results and interim dividend have no impact on the share price for the rest of the week? I think a 50% increase might have been factored into the price, BUT certainly not an 80%+ rise and an interim dividend to boot... NB:I am talking to the little part of your soul that is actually a fundi... I stated that my fast trades (short term NSE bounce) are not based on fundies. KK high volume at peak price is an exit of smart money & it has priced in the results which they knew before they pushed it to its peak price... Had a look at Scangroup, this too will be sold or just remain flat. Have a look at equity in June and spot the volume difference on its falling price... That is how VSA (Vol spread analysis) works. This is how traders play fast trades. If NSE is in an up momentum in Sept, BRITAK will rally like mad?! Just on psychology aka sentiments. Quite interesting it lists on a Friday... to lock in gains... Disclaimer - This is not investment advice nor trading advice $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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the deal		#158 Posted : Wednesday, July 27, 2011 7:47:35 AM
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery		@hisah correction; on RSI the NSE has been gravely oversold for the past 2 month...well KK shook off some of those overbought levels...we were once at 12bob before we crashed to 10 something levels...the market never anticipated 80%+ or an interim dividend...i was calling for a dividend because after looking at their cash flow statement...KK was sitting on alot of free cash...so even a 1 bob ID was possible just from FY 2010.
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Mainat		#159 Posted : Wednesday, July 27, 2011 7:54:50 AM
Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/21/2006 Posts: 1,590		On sentiments, NSE is not oversold. On forward looking fundamentals, it is not oversold. On speculative trading, its oversold. Take your pick. Sehemu ndio nyumba
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hisah		#160 Posted : Wednesday, July 27, 2011 8:22:08 AM
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977		the deal wrote: @hisah correction; on RSI the NSE has been gravely oversold for the past 2 month...well KK shook off some of those overbought levels...we were once at 12bob before we crashed to 10 something levels...the market never anticipated 80%+ or an interim dividend...i was calling for a dividend because after looking at their cash flow statement...KK was sitting on alot of free cash...so even a 1 bob ID was possible just from FY 2010. Just like the banks announcing last year super results & Q1 glossy results, they still got sold. KK will experience the same in coming weeks. Money has already been made. Buy the rumour, sell the news... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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