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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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@hisah. I hear you loud and clear, the longer this bear lasts the more I can buy. Next bull run whenever it is, looking for x2-x3 growth. Could be my game changer after lackluster performance last time. Will safcom, BAT, EABL, equity ever fall? The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/28/2015 Posts: 1,247
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hisah wrote:snipermnoma wrote:instinct wrote:even as most remain pessimistic about a possible rally towards end of February, does it matter that some companies will report good results in March? some will announce good dividends, bonuses etc. Good question. I have noted that when pessimism grips, good news is ignored and prices stagnate or drop. Similarly when optimism grips, bad news is ignored and prices hold or increase. This bear we are in will likely ignore any good results in the next month. @sniper that's a nice way of summarizing market psychology.
Most think that since 2015 was a sell side period, the FY news expected in Q1 will change the market behaviour to the upside since we're in a new year. The reason being the market always rallies pre FY release. However, most are forgetting that the profit warnings are going to be actualized in this FY results. Why would the market rally? The sentiment is not bullish, but neither is it extremely pessimistic. For that reason this is why the market has to hit the decks again.
For a pendulum to swing you need the extreme swing ends to be reached to provide the force for the opposite swing. We're half way the bear swing. We'll reach the extreme swing end then change to the bullish swing.
Expect any rallies to be sold! In a bear market everyone is fearful and you are most likely going to land yourself a punch preaching good news than when preaching bad news. The vice versa is true in a bull market. Sharks are hungry and they need to eat and swim in the blood.  ,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Aguytrying wrote:@hisah. I hear you loud and clear, the longer this bear lasts the more I can buy. Next bull run whenever it is, looking for x2-x3 growth. Could be my game changer after lackluster performance last time.
Will safcom, BAT, EABL, equity ever fall? Mpesa bank is showing signs of fatigue which were not present last year! It has spent too much time trying to break above 17 handle resistance, which was rejected in May 2015. It doesn't matter how well the rest will hold up, but when an elephant sinks everyone will feel it... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/20/2015 Posts: 2,811 Location: Mombasa
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hisah wrote:Aguytrying wrote:@hisah. I hear you loud and clear, the longer this bear lasts the more I can buy. Next bull run whenever it is, looking for x2-x3 growth. Could be my game changer after lackluster performance last time.
Will safcom, BAT, EABL, equity ever fall? Mpesa bank is showing signs of fatigue which were not present last year! It has spent too much time trying to break above 17 handle resistance, which was rejected in May 2015. It doesn't matter how well the rest will hold up, but when an elephant sinks everyone will feel it... When will the market start tanking? John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Spikes wrote:hisah wrote:Aguytrying wrote:@hisah. I hear you loud and clear, the longer this bear lasts the more I can buy. Next bull run whenever it is, looking for x2-x3 growth. Could be my game changer after lackluster performance last time.
Will safcom, BAT, EABL, equity ever fall? Mpesa bank is showing signs of fatigue which were not present last year! It has spent too much time trying to break above 17 handle resistance, which was rejected in May 2015. It doesn't matter how well the rest will hold up, but when an elephant sinks everyone will feel it... When will the market start tanking? Only the market can answer that. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/28/2015 Posts: 1,247
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hisah wrote:Aguytrying wrote:@hisah. I hear you loud and clear, the longer this bear lasts the more I can buy. Next bull run whenever it is, looking for x2-x3 growth. Could be my game changer after lackluster performance last time.
Will safcom, BAT, EABL, equity ever fall? Ooh yes. They will fall. Only at the right time. Mpesa bank is showing signs of fatigue which were not present last year! It has spent too much time trying to break above 17 handle resistance, which was rejected in May 2015. It doesn't matter how well the rest will hold up, but when an elephant sinks everyone will feel it... Yes. After the next bull run. Every market has its seasons and cycles. PPT will guard them until a clean exit is made. Remember they rallied solidly and they are quit illiquid stocks save for mpesa. Am keenly watching MPESA for now. Any failure in breaking systems and the monkey business fall will be quite disastrous. There is alot of dust in this counter seams everyone is arm twisting the other for the scrubs. ,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/20/2015 Posts: 2,811 Location: Mombasa
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muandiwambeu wrote:hisah wrote:Aguytrying wrote:@hisah. I hear you loud and clear, the longer this bear lasts the more I can buy. Next bull run whenever it is, looking for x2-x3 growth. Could be my game changer after lackluster performance last time.
Will safcom, BAT, EABL, equity ever fall? Ooh yes. They will fall. Only at the right time. Mpesa bank is showing signs of fatigue which were not present last year! It has spent too much time trying to break above 17 handle resistance, which was rejected in May 2015. It doesn't matter how well the rest will hold up, but when an elephant sinks everyone will feel it... Yes. After the next bull run. Every market has its seasons and cycles. PPT will guard them until a clean exit is made. Remember they rallied solidly and they are quit illiquid stocks save for mpesa. Am keenly watching MPESA for now. Any failure in breaking systems and the monkey business fall will be quite disastrous. There is alot of dust in this counter seams everyone is arm twisting the other for the scrubs. It depends on when FY2015 results will be out .If Bob releases the results this month expect Mpesa to print 20 kes. John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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Rank: User Joined: 1/20/2014 Posts: 3,528
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Spikes wrote:muandiwambeu wrote:hisah wrote:Aguytrying wrote:@hisah. I hear you loud and clear, the longer this bear lasts the more I can buy. Next bull run whenever it is, looking for x2-x3 growth. Could be my game changer after lackluster performance last time.
Will safcom, BAT, EABL, equity ever fall? Ooh yes. They will fall. Only at the right time. Mpesa bank is showing signs of fatigue which were not present last year! It has spent too much time trying to break above 17 handle resistance, which was rejected in May 2015. It doesn't matter how well the rest will hold up, but when an elephant sinks everyone will feel it... Yes. After the next bull run. Every market has its seasons and cycles. PPT will guard them until a clean exit is made. Remember they rallied solidly and they are quit illiquid stocks save for mpesa. Am keenly watching MPESA for now. Any failure in breaking systems and the monkey business fall will be quite disastrous. There is alot of dust in this counter seams everyone is arm twisting the other for the scrubs. It depends on when FY2015 results will be out . If Bob releases the results this month expect Mpesa to print 20 kes. Come on surely, you need to know the accounting periods and approximate results release dates of the firms you comment about. That is very basic starting point!!! Formal education will make you a living. Self-education will make you a fortune - Jim Rohn.
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/31/2007 Posts: 304
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hisah wrote:Mpesa bank... Caution... The next market down leg will catch many off-guard! Pessimism does not hold forever same with optimism For now, I think we are at the deep end of pessimism and Safaricom so far has held on very well unlike other shares and add to the fact that they will be declaring record breaking profits,i clearly dont see how they will be the trigger for the next level of bearish activity..Unless you want to imply that the share is extremely overvalued
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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moneydust wrote:hisah wrote:Mpesa bank... Caution... The next market down leg will catch many off-guard! Pessimism does not hold forever same with optimism For now, I think we are at the deep end of pessimism and Safaricom so far has held on very well unlike other shares and add to the fact that they will be declaring record breaking profits,i clearly dont see how they will be the trigger for the next level of bearish activity..Unless you want to imply that the share is extremely overvalued What pe is safcom trading at? Pe of 20. It's extremely overvalued. Extremely. All this while the likes of kcb are at a pe of 7. It's like the story of an elephant on top of a tree.... The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/20/2015 Posts: 2,811 Location: Mombasa
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Aguytrying wrote:moneydust wrote:hisah wrote:Mpesa bank... Caution... The next market down leg will catch many off-guard! Pessimism does not hold forever same with optimism For now, I think we are at the deep end of pessimism and Safaricom so far has held on very well unlike other shares and add to the fact that they will be declaring record breaking profits,i clearly dont see how they will be the trigger for the next level of bearish activity..Unless you want to imply that the share is extremely overvalued What pe is safcom trading at? Pe of 20. It's extremely overvalued. Extremely. All this while the likes of kcb are at a pe of 7. It's like the story of an elephant on top of a tree.... When it hits kes 20 per share pe ratio will jump to 25! Watch my lips people. This is likely. John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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The noose is getting tighter for individuals and businesses. A pervasive trend toward negative social mood creates incentives to increase control over people. City Hall plans to charge business permits based on trade volumes[url=http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/City-Hall-plans-to-charge-business-permits/-/539546/3067714/-/a79951z/-/index.html]link[/url] KRA now gets powers to act against tax avoiding companies[url=http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Corporate-News/KRA-now-gets-powers-to-act-against-tax-avoiding-firms/-/539550/3067854/-/u8y3v1/-/index.html]link[/url] Remember also that withdrawing amounts over 1 Million KES cash is illegal in Kenya. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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The future can be predicted! Those who don't believe so should accept that their tools (and brains) have failed them. Quote:Zika - Analyst Warned of "Mosquito-Borne Viruses" Moving North
GAINESVILLE, Ga., Feb. 8, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- Article after article tells us that no one really saw the Zika virus coming. But that's simply not true. Landmark research from the Socionomics Institute presented compelling evidence that "mosquito-borne viruses endemic to the tropics," such as Chikungunya and dengue fever, were expanding their range. Their 2009-2015 studies, headed up by Senior Researcher Alan Hall, also showed clearly how major epidemics over the past several hundred years –ranging from London cholera, Spanish flu, polio, HIV/AIDS, SARS, H1N1 flu to Ebola – all shared one common feature: they erupted after large, extended declines in stock prices.
Do stock market declines make people sick? Socionomists don't think so. Instead, they think benchmark stock indexes indicate trends in social psychology. When people become pessimistic and fearful, they sell stocks. Then, they cut back on economic activity. Research shows that both changes in the stock market and changes in the economy precede changes in public health. When societies get depressed, they are more likely to get sick.
[url=http://finance.yahoo.com/news/zika-analyst-warned-mosquito-borne-190700437.html]link[/url] Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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 The Socionomic Theory of FinanceAn Alternative to EMH and a Foundation for Technical AnalysisIn this video, recorded at the 2014 International Federation of Technical Analysts Conference in London, Robert Prechter presents his most comprehensive and concise presentation of socionomics thus far. Prechter challenges you to consider a radical new perspective on social and financial causality. The perspective will enable you to anticipate, understand and act on developing social trends that nearly all other investors and forecasters fail to see coming. Format: Video | 53 minutes + 17-minute bonus feature Presented By: Robert Prechter Level: Intermediate [url=http://beta.elliottwave.com/Video/The-Socionomic-Theory-of-Finance-An-Alternative-to-EMH-and-a-Foundation-for-Technical-Analysis]link[/url] Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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Pessimism, fear and uncertainty create economic conditions that increase stress and disrupt routines, sanitation, households, social relationships, and, ultimately, compromise human immunity. If Zika were Brazil’s only threat today, it would be easier to dismiss this theory. But the rising susceptibility is also evident in the concurrent epidemic of microcephaly, and in the increasing incidence of dengue, chikungunya and the paralyzing nervous disorder, Guillain-Barre syndrome. And while the country is mired in its worst economic crisis since the Great Depression and impeachment proceedings are underway against President Dilma Rousseff, lax hygiene has brewed a toxic stew of viral and bacterial pathogens in Rio de Janiero’s Summer Olympics water venues. It is quite reasonable to propose that changes in social psychology, or social mood, are an important causal mechanism for elevation and reduction in public health risk. [url=http://www.socionomics.net/2016/02/epidemics/]Click here[/url] to see historical charts that demonstrate this effect. [url=http://www.socionomics.net/mosquitoes-dont-care-about-the-stock-market/]link[/url] Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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Panic phase coming up globally. Chinese stock markets (currently on holiday) were almost 50% down since their June 2015 highs, they will resume with a thud. Bankruptcies from overcapacity are yet to hit home. Euro zone stocks are largely in bear territory with serious bank run undercurrents sweeping all over the place from Italy, Spain, Portugal, Germany (Deutsche), Switzerland (credit suisse) etc. Japan's nikkei is currently getting pulverised by flight to safety. So far NIRP is turning out to be hangman's noose for the economy. For the US, all of S&P, nasdaq and Dow are all in correction territory and quickly sliding towards bear zone with acres to fall. All these developments coupled with economic problems carried over and exacerbated since GFC means it will only take a single black swan event( they are currently too many to list) to induce real panic in equities. Whether or not KE prints rosy headlines it won't matter, contagion will take over. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/20/2015 Posts: 2,811 Location: Mombasa
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lochaz-index wrote:Panic phase coming up globally.
Chinese stock markets (currently on holiday) were almost 50% down since their June 2015 highs, they will resume with a thud. Bankruptcies from overcapacity are yet to hit home.
Euro zone stocks are largely in bear territory with serious bank run undercurrents sweeping all over the place from Italy, Spain, Portugal, Germany (Deutsche), Switzerland (credit suisse) etc.
Japan's nikkei is currently getting pulverised by flight to safety. So far NIRP is turning out to be hangman's noose for the economy.
For the US, all of S&P, nasdaq and Dow are all in correction territory and quickly sliding towards bear zone with acres to fall.
All these developments coupled with economic problems carried over and exacerbated since GFC means it will only take a single black swan event( they are currently too many to list) to induce real panic in equities.
Whether or not KE prints rosy headlines it won't matter, contagion will take over. Well said crusaders of doomsday! John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/20/2015 Posts: 2,811 Location: Mombasa
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Spikes wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Panic phase coming up globally.
Chinese stock markets (currently on holiday) were almost 50% down since their June 2015 highs, they will resume with a thud. Bankruptcies from overcapacity are yet to hit home.
Euro zone stocks are largely in bear territory with serious bank run undercurrents sweeping all over the place from Italy, Spain, Portugal, Germany (Deutsche), Switzerland (credit suisse) etc.
Japan's nikkei is currently getting pulverised by flight to safety. So far NIRP is turning out to be hangman's noose for the economy.
For the US, all of S&P, nasdaq and Dow are all in correction territory and quickly sliding towards bear zone with acres to fall.
All these developments coupled with economic problems carried over and exacerbated since GFC means it will only take a single black swan event( they are currently too many to list) to induce real panic in equities.
Whether or not KE prints rosy headlines it won't matter, contagion will take over. Well said crusaders of doomsday! Most folks are greedily waiting NSE to bottom out! You will be shocked to see a new high level as days pass. People have money just making noise, bleating waiting for the next slide. Mtangoja sana! John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/3/2014 Posts: 257
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Spikes wrote:Spikes wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Panic phase coming up globally.
Chinese stock markets (currently on holiday) were almost 50% down since their June 2015 highs, they will resume with a thud. Bankruptcies from overcapacity are yet to hit home.
Euro zone stocks are largely in bear territory with serious bank run undercurrents sweeping all over the place from Italy, Spain, Portugal, Germany (Deutsche), Switzerland (credit suisse) etc.
Japan's nikkei is currently getting pulverised by flight to safety. So far NIRP is turning out to be hangman's noose for the economy.
For the US, all of S&P, nasdaq and Dow are all in correction territory and quickly sliding towards bear zone with acres to fall.
All these developments coupled with economic problems carried over and exacerbated since GFC means it will only take a single black swan event( they are currently too many to list) to induce real panic in equities.
Whether or not KE prints rosy headlines it won't matter, contagion will take over. Well said crusaders of doomsday! Most folks are greedily waiting NSE to bottom out! You will be shocked to see a new high level as days pass. People have money just making noise, bleating waiting for the next slide. Mtangoja sana! We all have a different risk threshold. So when the bear is upon us expect the majority to sit it out. Very few see this as a time to buy. Those who want to buy or sell or watch should do so. Then in the coming weeks and months the market will make it clear who made the best decision. Hindsight is always 20/20, but at the end of the day, we all have to own the decisions we make.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Adjectives have started checking in. Perfect. Bearish proponents have a new name; crusaders of doomsday. Nice fight coming up between doomsday crusaders vs optimists. Meanwhile mpesa bank is following the path of least resistance... The looming gok debt bomb will nuke the market. This is the main reason Zacchaeus is busy grabbing tax. When Zacchaeus behaves this way the markets always go to sleep. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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