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KENOL-KOBIL 2014
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mlennyma
#741 Posted : Thursday, February 12, 2015 5:19:28 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
Boris Boyka wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Boris Boyka wrote:
theking wrote:
Boris Boyka wrote:
theking wrote:
another kodak moment 12/02/2015 2:53 p.m. demand 10.20 supply 10.30


VWAP???


9.95/=

Wake me up when it is 10.30....

10.30 only?learn to sustain, you don't need to sleep with this target because it can be tomorrow smile who said kk can not rally 10%?

@mr.lenny at a VWAP of 10.3 it means a good qty has traded at a higher price thus even if it swings, bottom is around 10/- .this 10.3 has been the resistance. breaking it is neccesary. waking up means now following keenly and affording a smile. did i mention that is my target???

it seems we are all struggling to have faith in kk,we can't imagine it can have a low of 10.30 tomorrow, miracles do happen
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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mlennyma
#742 Posted : Thursday, February 12, 2015 5:22:37 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
Boris Boyka wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Boris Boyka wrote:
theking wrote:
Boris Boyka wrote:
theking wrote:
another kodak moment 12/02/2015 2:53 p.m. demand 10.20 supply 10.30


VWAP???


9.95/=

Wake me up when it is 10.30....

10.30 only?learn to sustain, you don't need to sleep with this target because it can be tomorrow smile who said kk can not rally 10%?

@mr.lenny at a VWAP of 10.3 it means a good qty has traded at a higher price thus even if it swings, bottom is around 10/- .this 10.3 has been the resistance. breaking it is neccesary. waking up means now following keenly and affording a smile. did i mention that is my target???

it seems we are all struggling to have faith in kk,we can't imagine it can have a low of 10.30 tomorrow, miracles do happen?enyewe ni ngumu may be with bonus and dividend news
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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  | | Edit by user: Thursday, February 12, 2015 5:27 PM | Reason: Not specified
Aguytrying
#743 Posted : Thursday, February 12, 2015 5:29:22 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
mlennyma wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
@aguy!!!what picture would you post?a monkey mating?

thats a monkey's happiest momentsmile

The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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VituVingiSana
#744 Posted : Thursday, February 12, 2015 6:23:35 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,356
Location: Nairobi
What's the ultimate goal of the MAJOR shareholders? That is the question one should ask. The rest of us and our thoughts are irrelevant.

If Biwott & Family wants to sell out then they will ask Ohana to clean up the books and prepare it for sale. The only question is how much?

If the ultimate aim of Biwott & Family is to cash out then KK should start selling off its properties that are located in areas where the fuel sales have stagnated but property prices are increasing.

EXAMPLE:

A station with 1/2 acre valued at 250mn [think Westlands/Parklands/Kilimani/Upper Hill]
Net combined [wholesale + retail] margin of 5/- per liter AFTER costs including salaries, licenses, maintenance, advertising, taxes, transport, etc.

If KK pays 12.5% on its KES loans so borrowing KES 250mn = 31.25mn

To earn 31.25mn the station has to sell 6.25mn liters per year = 500,000/month

So if the station can't sell 500,000 liters/month, is it worth keeping?
How many stations in these high-cost areas sell 500,000 liters/month?
What makes more sense for debt-heavy KK?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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  | | Edit by user: Thursday, February 12, 2015 6:42 PM | Reason: Not specified
h2s
#745 Posted : Friday, February 13, 2015 8:53:09 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 7/20/2012
Posts: 141
VituVingiSana wrote:
What's the ultimate goal of the MAJOR shareholders? That is the question one should ask. The rest of us and our thoughts are irrelevant.

If Biwott & Family wants to sell out then they will ask Ohana to clean up the books and prepare it for sale. The only question is how much?

If the ultimate aim of Biwott & Family is to cash out then KK should start selling off its properties that are located in areas where the fuel sales have stagnated but property prices are increasing.

EXAMPLE:

A station with 1/2 acre valued at 250mn [think Westlands/Parklands/Kilimani/Upper Hill]
Net combined [wholesale + retail] margin of 5/- per liter AFTER costs including salaries, licenses, maintenance, advertising, taxes, transport, etc.

If KK pays 12.5% on its KES loans so borrowing KES 250mn = 31.25mn

To earn 31.25mn the station has to sell 6.25mn liters per year = 500,000/month

So if the station can't sell 500,000 liters/month, is it worth keeping?
How many stations in these high-cost areas sell 500,000 liters/month?
What makes more sense for debt-heavy KK?


Your analysis is spot on. Now if the major shareholders wanted to sell off, would they want the price to shoot or be manageable and they can cut deals with the buyer on how they can benefit? That's why I think the share price is somehow surpressed.
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Boris Boyka
#746 Posted : Friday, February 13, 2015 10:02:55 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/15/2013
Posts: 1,977
Location: Here

1. Supress the share,negotiate with suitor and get their chicken.
2. Supress share,wade off minor shareholders while they buy in more.....after done share sky rockets and they are billionaires whether sell off or not.
In my view both are possible and probability is 50/50 ,only an insider can unravel for us this mistery
Everybody STEALS, a THIEF is one who's CAUGHT stealing something of LITTLE VALUE. !!!
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Gatheuzi
#747 Posted : Friday, February 13, 2015 11:09:36 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/16/2009
Posts: 994
Boris Boyka wrote:

1. Supress the share,negotiate with suitor and get their chicken.
2. Supress share,wade off minor shareholders while they buy in more.....after done share sky rockets and they are billionaires whether sell off or not.
In my view both are possible and probability is 50/50 ,only an insider can unravel for us this mistery


Happy to see you are now awakesmile

Boris Boyka wrote:
I repeat: If this counter is still within 7.90-10.30 bracket,don't bother yourself and others. when it goes beyond those price brackets,please bother and wake me up. Otherwise am in deep slumber.


It seems like the defence line to reach past 10.30 is no mean task.

Time is money, so money is time. Money saved is time gained in reverse! Money stores your life’s energy. You expend your energy, get paid money, and store that money for a future purchase made in a currency.
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VituVingiSana
#748 Posted : Friday, February 13, 2015 11:12:15 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,356
Location: Nairobi
All said and done, it makes better sense for all, including the Controlling Shareholders, to manage the firm well. Whereas I am sure there will be a suitor but failing that why not have a well-run and profitable business?

BTW, I believe it makes sense to cash out of underperforming locations whose real estate prices are crazy high. This was not uncommon in many markets.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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  | | Edit by user: Friday, February 13, 2015 12:55 PM | Reason: Not specified
mlennyma
#749 Posted : Friday, February 13, 2015 11:52:10 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
Gatheuzi wrote:
Boris Boyka wrote:

1. Supress the share,negotiate with suitor and get their chicken.
2. Supress share,wade off minor shareholders while they buy in more.....after done share sky rockets and they are billionaires whether sell off or not.
In my view both are possible and probability is 50/50 ,only an insider can unravel for us this mistery


Happy to see you are now awakesmile

Boris Boyka wrote:
I repeat: If this counter is still within 7.90-10.30 bracket,don't bother yourself and others. when it goes beyond those price brackets,please bother and wake me up. Otherwise am in deep slumber.


It seems like the defence line to reach past 10.30 is no mean task.


the share has undergone 1hr moment of silence
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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  | | Edit by user: Friday, February 13, 2015 11:54 AM | Reason: Not specified
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#750 Posted : Friday, February 13, 2015 1:46:47 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,225
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
Imminent break out on the cards. Upper bollinger band of 10.22 broken

@SufficientlyP
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