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Safcom on a dive, whats going on?
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/12/2006 Posts: 1,554
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Jaina wrote:The contest here is between the mighty Idians and the arrogant Brits. In the recent past, indians are outsmarting the brits in many businesses. Eg. In india, Bharti Airtel is the leading mobile phone company with 137 Million subscibers. Vodaphone is ranked 3rd with 80 Million.
Though the contest is in a different wavelength in kenya, kenyan market is and has always been unique. The mighty SAB Millers were humbled in kenya. My bet is these indians will be humbled too. Even if they have big/deep pokets like slim helu, they cannot sustain the pricing strategy that they have adopted in the longterm.
Assuming that safcom can afford to loose 10% of marketshare as a result of the price wars and still maintain current pricing, indians will still have a long way to go to achieve any profits.
@Jaina spot-on, however include kenyans since we also own a percentage in safcom
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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Jamani wrote:Jaina wrote:The contest here is between the mighty Idians and the arrogant Brits. In the recent past, indians are outsmarting the brits in many businesses. Eg. In india, Bharti Airtel is the leading mobile phone company with 137 Million subscibers. Vodaphone is ranked 3rd with 80 Million.
Though the contest is in a different wavelength in kenya, kenyan market is and has always been unique. The mighty SAB Millers were humbled in kenya. My bet is these indians will be humbled too. Even if they have big/deep pokets like slim helu, they cannot sustain the pricing strategy that they have adopted in the longterm.
Assuming that safcom can afford to loose 10% of marketshare as a result of the price wars and still maintain current pricing, indians will still have a long way to go to achieve any profits.
@Jaina spot-on, however include kenyans since we also own a percentage in safcom amen to that considering the shares held by treasury and the ones by wananchi like me. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/11/2010 Posts: 1,011 Location: nairobi
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by the way who were the owner of kencell
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,568 Location: nairobi
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vivendi
COOP 70,000 ABP 15.20; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/12/2006 Posts: 1,554
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bartum wrote:by the way who were the owner of kencell Vivendi and Merali Kencell Merali and Mo-Ibrahim Celtel Kuwait and Merali Zain Bharti and Merali Airtel(next name) ?? and Merali (?? next buyer)
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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Jamani wrote:bartum wrote:by the way who were the owner of kencell Vivendi and Merali Kencell Merali and Mo-Ibrahim Celtel Kuwait and Merali Zain Bharti and Merali Airtel(next name) ?? and Merali (?? next buyer) @jamani merali sold all his stake in zain to bharti so he's not involved in this one Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/12/2006 Posts: 1,554
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guru267 wrote:Jamani wrote:bartum wrote:by the way who were the owner of kencell Vivendi and Merali Kencell Merali and Mo-Ibrahim Celtel Kuwait and Merali Zain Bharti and Merali Airtel(next name) ?? and Merali (?? next buyer) @jamani merali sold all his stake in zain to bharti so he's not involved in this one aah ok, so cck changed the rule to accept 100% ownership of telco to foreign companies? i thought he has kitu 10% there about, and its still listed here check this out http://www.sameer-group....=contacts&pcat=about
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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I think the foreigners who are selling are reacting to the Morgan Stanely downgrade...
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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j Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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the deal wrote:I think the foreigners who are selling are reacting to the Morgan Stanely downgrade... So am i... I'm basing my decision After doing my own analysis of new events and also listening to the sound recommendation of morgan stanley who have been huge supporters of safcom Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/30/2007 Posts: 1,558 Location: Nairobi
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Jaina wrote:The contest here is between the mighty Idians and the arrogant Brits. In the recent past, indians are outsmarting the brits in many businesses. Eg. In india, Bharti Airtel is the leading mobile phone company with 137 Million subscibers. Vodaphone is ranked 3rd with 80 Million.
Though the contest is in a different wavelength in kenya, kenyan market is and has always been unique. The mighty SAB Millers were humbled in kenya. My bet is these indians will be humbled too. Even if they have big/deep pokets like slim helu, they cannot sustain the pricing strategy that they have adopted in the longterm.
Assuming that safcom can afford to loose 10% of marketshare as a result of the price wars and still maintain current pricing, indians will still have a long way to go to achieve any profits.
Markt share is not just the number of lines that have been activated. It has to do with revenue per line too!! What would ratify you paying 3times more per minute when a cheaper one is available. Even if Scom lower tarrifs to match Zain, their net earnings shouldn't exceed 14B; ofcourse factoring in the extra calls coz of the lower price. Vodafone are gettin sorted in the UK too coz of price wars. SAB millers v EABL is abit different. It has to do with taste. Tusker is one of the best as out there. In Scom v Zain, Zain has better call quality and is cheaper. So my bet, unless Scom pulls a rabbit outta the bag, would be on Zain.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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Jamani wrote:guru267 wrote:Jamani wrote:[quote=bartum]by the way who were the owner of kencell Vivendi and Merali Kencell Merali and Mo-Ibrahim Celtel Kuwait and Merali Zain Bharti and Merali Airtel(next name) ?? and Merali (?? next buyer) @jamani merali sold all his stake in zain to bharti so he's not involved in this one aah ok, so cck changed the rule to accept 100% ownership of telco to foreign companies? i thought he has kitu 10% there about, and its still listed here check this out http://www.sameer-group....contacts&pcat=about[/quote] @jamani the page is obsolete because its dated in 2006. Merali currently Has no interest in zain Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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@guru is it not good to wait for the half year results....i thnk the same morgan stanely will upgrade Scom...
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/10/2007 Posts: 1,587
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the deal wrote:@guru is it not good to wait for the half year results....i thnk the same morgan stanely will upgrade Scom... At this point I would adopt a wait and see attitude like the guru. Airtel is a collosus like non safcom has ever seen. Noting that they are also eyeing the data market, safcom has to contend with reduced margins and more serious competition. We cannot rule out the Indians. MJ is well aware of this
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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the deal wrote:@guru is it not good to wait for the half year results....i thnk the same morgan stanely will upgrade Scom... @the deal there are clear reasons why morgan stanely will not be swayed by the half year results.. first of all the results will be based on old the old pricing regime where same network calls are 7bob and also because many shareholders bought into the company for long term growth which doesnt look really positive under current circumstances Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/13/2008 Posts: 558
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In an oligopolistic market, The dominant firm sets prices which are simply taken by the smaller firms in determining their profit maximizing levels. Although this is just theory in an economics class, there is some truth in it.
Market leaders do not simply follow the small firms. They set the pace through hook and crook. As such, the hype of price wars in kenya at the moment will not be sustainable unless the market leader reacts. Chances are that Safcom's reaction will not be a price reduction, but unothodox method such as brokage of its network access by competition.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/30/2007 Posts: 1,558 Location: Nairobi
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guru267 wrote:the deal wrote:i agree with AKS who said this is just an 'overreaction'.... You're actually listening to Aly khan.... This dude has 50% of his portfolio in safcom what do you expect him to say?? LOOL
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/13/2009 Posts: 1,950 Location: in kenya
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I have seen that kacucu that announces new tarrifs for safaricom being shown a lilbit before they cut the clip as if they are doing a hype thing .she is as if she is connecting a cable or a microphone and then she shakes her head before the clip is cut without announcing anything.Can this be safaricom launching their new tarrifs or Am I seing my own things. '......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 5/18/2008 Posts: 796
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@Selah...
You've not heard...
"Mambo ya kubamba yanakuja"
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/7/2010 Posts: 1,279 Location: nbi
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Lets do the simple maths using Safcom's annual report. - Ksh63bn out of Ksh83bn comes from voice -each call gives Safcom Ksh6 per minute. If Zain maintains this thing for 2 months, Safcom will have to respond with at least Ksh4 per minute. Which means losing 2/6*63= Ksh21bn. That is 25% reduction in revenue! -We are not going to talk about data revenue lost from lower subscriber number - a share price of Ksh4.50 is sound -Assuming Zain is able to overcome capacity issues The Governor of Nyeri - 2017
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