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Realities of Forex Investment
tonicasert
#121 Posted : Tuesday, August 12, 2008 9:05:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/10/2008
Posts: 301
Location: Abu Dhabi
My 2 cents

The hard reality of stagflation are beginning to bite harder now in the Eurozone. The US was quicker to cut rates and currently keeping them on hold while monitoring the situation. A slower growth in the global economies,esp India and China,may reduce net demand for oil. This may boost the USD in the medium term (read next couple of months).

However the last 3 weeks has seen the USD rally tremendously. I feel we may see some minor retracements in the gains,before continuing with some less aggressive gains. This of course will be subject to any new economic numbers coming off.
kim007
#122 Posted : Tuesday, August 12, 2008 9:33:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/19/2008
Posts: 4
did u go short USD/CAD at 1.0704
any one trading this pair

getbusy
Kal-El
#123 Posted : Tuesday, August 12, 2008 10:01:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/17/2008
Posts: 4
@Alala

Thanks,I'll give you a call tomorrow morning and we talk. I've been reading on your system EDSA. Interesting stuff? Tell me,do you think that such a correlation/hedging system can work with other types of instruments like different stocks or forex vs bonds?

@Ngaatu

You're exciting me with your commodities talk,I'm really keen on getting into this field. Alala has already offered to help but I don't mind more info. Any take on trading commodities directly as opposed of through forex.

It's not about the ending,it's about the journey.
StephenAlala
#124 Posted : Tuesday, August 12, 2008 10:49:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/9/2008
Posts: 44
@KAL-El

Arbitrage is widely applied even to equities and indices. For example,the fellow who brought down Barings Banks was hugely successful by arbitraging indices in South East Asia. He became greedier and abandoned this successful strategy,causing one of the worst bank collapses ever known.

@All

The confirmations for the networking event for users of FXCM under Genius are coming in hard and fast. You guys really need to move to a serious platform like FXCM under Genius where there is no dealing desk and where you'll have local support from us right here in Kenya. The movement is going to be explosive. If you guys are aspiring to be money managers handling millions of dollars,this is the place to be.
Passyson
#125 Posted : Tuesday, August 12, 2008 11:13:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/8/2008
Posts: 97
Ayala..Leeson basically bought and sold Nikkei 225 futures contracts simultaneously on OSE and SIMEX thus benefiting from marginal disparities in similar contracts&hellip;.opportunities were there coz SIMEX and OSE have different market conditions&hellip;offshore and local and also the fact that OSE is slower in conducting business that SIMEX.

Leeson also arbitraged JGB futures contacts on TSE and SIMEX&hellip;JGB was rather volatile thus good opportunities here too. He also arbitraged SIMEX and TIFFE Euroyen contracts&hellip;bright guy he was but greed took over!



Yet with all these opportunities,Barings bank collapsed because Leeson kept unmatched positions and hid these unauthorized dealings from the management because he managed both back office functions and the trading! He traded mismatched amounts and also did derivatives contracts that were in some cases of different types!



Wrong arbitrage I might say&hellip;


Anyone who lives within their means suffers from a lack of imagination
Passyson
#126 Posted : Tuesday, August 12, 2008 11:17:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/8/2008
Posts: 97
@Kim007

I did not trade USD/CAD in the NY session&hellip;many things were happening and it was not a good trade as far as I was concerned. My brother went short on it and made money but for me upto the time of writing this,it is no trade.


Anyone who lives within their means suffers from a lack of imagination
NGAATU
#127 Posted : Tuesday, August 12, 2008 11:23:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/6/2008
Posts: 107
Maybe the aspectof making a traders day where all traders could share detail is helpful@alala tusaidie tujue ni nini fellow traders and investors will benefit;tupe hint @Tonicasert that's a million intake bro

@NGAATU
Passyson
#128 Posted : Tuesday, August 12, 2008 11:33:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/8/2008
Posts: 97
@Alala&hellip;I want the freedom of managing my own account&hellip;grow it to whatever million and just manage it for the rest of my life. Thanks though for your offer.



It&rsquo;s a mini account&hellip;my lots as I said range from 50,000-100,000 or 5-10 depending on how you look at it.



@Ngaatu



My Kibaki cents J



Eurozone growth is stagnating&hellip;a weaker Euro is expected in the near future. The US economy is not any better but it is made to look brighter because of the weakening Euro. Oil prices are also in some sort of decline lending the USD some short reprieve. Gold prices also feel like going down the hill so the buck still maintains a brighter outlook. Certain political issues e.g. Georgia acrimony might impact negatively on the buck.



The China effect is clearly affecting the commodities. Steel,copper,iron etc are in huge demand by China and in most cases makes them into finished goods ready for export. China is highly consuming these raw materials and at the same time the economy is growing at an alarming rate posing threats to the world&rsquo;s established economies. This vast demand by 1 country of certain metals and how it impacts on their production will obviously lead to some volatility in prices.



Anyone who lives within their means suffers from a lack of imagination
Passyson
#129 Posted : Wednesday, August 13, 2008 12:26:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/8/2008
Posts: 97
I am picking the AUD/NZD for a long term investment. I am talking of at least a month. Although the kiwis interest rates have been revised to 8.0% they still provide a good value for investment. NZD/USD in my opinion might provide a lot of volatility while at the same time ensuring that most S/L are hit. My safe bet would be the AUD/NZD&hellip;going short on it as of the moment for the 1 month period.



Anyone with a different option?


Anyone who lives within their means suffers from a lack of imagination
NGAATU
#130 Posted : Wednesday, August 13, 2008 2:28:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/6/2008
Posts: 107
@passyson i think shorting the aud nzd aint bad regarding the prevailing commodities situation.watch out the chinese and india changes in demand of commodities,and the crude oil shifts. regarding the units and lots thats a good explanation. bro u had a good take on the greenback. @kim there is a reverse role in usd cad but in the morning was good bet

@NGAATU
tonicasert
#131 Posted : Wednesday, August 13, 2008 3:01:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/10/2008
Posts: 301
Location: Abu Dhabi
Morning all,

The AUDNZD sounds like a good trade. Though the techs look abit oversold at current levels (looking at daily),it would be a good short on retracement to 1.27 levels. This is considering Australia is looking to cut rates by as much as 50 bps in the next meeting.

Good luck.

Whats for today? Long cable?
Passyson
#132 Posted : Wednesday, August 13, 2008 3:15:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/8/2008
Posts: 97
Morning fellow traders!



@Toni &amp; Ngaatu&hellip;Thanks for the input.



About the GBP,I would advise to wait till 11:30 for the employment report before going on some pipping spree&hellip;then exit your positions ASAP coz there will be the BOE inflation report @ 1230&hellip;from there you can go short or long depending on the outcome of the report.



Anyone who lives within their means suffers from a lack of imagination
tonicasert
#133 Posted : Wednesday, August 13, 2008 3:43:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/10/2008
Posts: 301
Location: Abu Dhabi
Already in and out for 20 pips. Thx. Will wait for the data
StephenAlala
#134 Posted : Wednesday, August 13, 2008 4:19:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/9/2008
Posts: 44
Well,how many of you fellows are interested in becoming money managers?
Passyson
#135 Posted : Wednesday, August 13, 2008 4:30:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/8/2008
Posts: 97
FYI&hellip;the GBP data expectations are as follows: UNEMPLOYEMENT RATE Expected to come out @ 5.3%...Average Earning 3.6% and claimant count is expected @ 17.5k



Look for deviations before trading.


Anyone who lives within their means suffers from a lack of imagination
Passyson
#136 Posted : Wednesday, August 13, 2008 4:40:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/8/2008
Posts: 97
All data is GBP negative&hellip;advisable to wait for the inflation rate too before committing yourself to the GBP trade but all depends on the individual trader.


Anyone who lives within their means suffers from a lack of imagination
Passyson
#137 Posted : Wednesday, August 13, 2008 5:37:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/8/2008
Posts: 97
Overall Info is -ve for the GBP...go short on it but remember we got US core retail sales out at 15:30...be on the look out.

Anyone who lives within their means suffers from a lack of imagination
kim007
#138 Posted : Wednesday, August 13, 2008 5:43:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/19/2008
Posts: 4
any one on a short gbp/usd ave gone from 1.9005 to 1.8875 n still moving .voila good pips for me. enjoy ur pips men

getbusy
Passyson
#139 Posted : Wednesday, August 13, 2008 5:49:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/8/2008
Posts: 97
The GBP/USD pair movement is due to BOE King's dovish statements that are practically not a good outlook on the UK economy. As i said earlier on,you have to be very careful about retracements in anticipation of the US core retail sales later on in the day...

Anyone who lives within their means suffers from a lack of imagination
Passyson
#140 Posted : Wednesday, August 13, 2008 6:15:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/8/2008
Posts: 97
Another long ...i wish there was a chatroom where we could analyze all these currencies and what one is trading on. We could really help each other make money this way. FOREX trading is supposed to be a non-selfish venture. If we all make money out of collective input,the better.

Anyone who lives within their means suffers from a lack of imagination
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