Scubidu-if you asked 5 economists the same questions, you'd get 6 answers

In reference to the points I was trying to make earlier. Perhaps the reason why CBK is interfering with currency markets; it got the directive from Treasury in the budget speech; support exports; but why? World Bank says:

The Kenya Economic Update describes the Kenyan economy as “running on one engine” since growth is imbalanced, predominantly driven by domestic consumption fuelled by imports. Exports, it explains, are weak — shrinking from 40 percent of total output in the 1960s to 26 percent in 2009 — due to the underperformance of the agriculture and manufacturing sectors. This import-led growth has also created a large current account deficit.

On the „Kenya Can End Poverty‟ blog, Wolfgang Fengler, Lead Economic Specialist for Kenya, discusses strategic ways to improve Kenya‟s exports. The specialist points out that exports will only increase if the infrastructure deficit is improved, specifically the port of Mombasa. “Mombasa is the most important single piece of infrastructure in East Africa, and it remains a key bottleneck for trade,” said Fengler.

Read more:

http://blogs.worldbank.o...running-on-one-engine-0

http://web.worldbank.org...heSitePK:356509,00.html

http://www.africabusines...l-kenya-economic-update/

The Schiff Report. The last three video blogs.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=deQa7CxocGc

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YLSrsK2XS4M

http://www.youtube.com/user/SchiffReport

A quick read of the latest Monthly Economic Review for August 2010 is most perplexing. You don't have to be an economist to realize the numbers are all confusing, but just be able to apply simple maths.

The debt to gdp ratio involves comparing the public debt figure to the GDP figure at market prices. Using the data on pages 5 & 39 of the document we can see that GDP market prices was Ksh2,274 bn in 2009 while the public debt was Ksh1,115 bn. So the debt to gdp ratio should be 49.0% in Dec-09 and not the 45.1% officially stated.

In any case these differences may be due to some error or funny standard applied, we'll never know for sure. One thing that we do know know is that page 39 tells us that the country's public debt rose 13% from Ksh1,114.5 bn to KSh1,263.7 bn from Dec-09 to Aug-10 while the debt to gdp ratio reportedly rose from 45.1% to 51.2%.

First thing is first, simple maths will tell you that based on those figures GDP is FALLING...eehhh? Lastly using the govt figures of debt (1,115) and the given ratio (45.1%) for Dec-09, shouldn't GDP be Ksh2,471 bn (by simple maths) and not Ksh2,274 bn officially reported?

Can one really trust these figures?

http://www.centralbank.g...ublications/default.aspx

The increase in Debt to GDP ratio, though in control, should be worrying. How far should it go? What is the threshold?