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mumias sugar results-560% growth half year-unaudited
Much Know
#61 Posted : Wednesday, February 03, 2010 8:10:04 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/6/2008
Posts: 3,579
If you make analysis and predictions without looking at the global markets, you will miss out (short term) but if you are a long term fundamentalist, it does not really matter. Mumias will be on the up and up so will Kenre, When? after western markets rally to the end of this week and perhaps another two. These markets were bearish for a spike of a while and drove down NSE
Ras Kienyeji Man
Much Know
#62 Posted : Thursday, February 04, 2010 1:04:54 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/6/2008
Posts: 3,579
Confimed buy at 10/-, set for the rally tomorrow, just on time!
Ras Kienyeji Man
guru267
#63 Posted : Thursday, February 04, 2010 1:32:11 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
@much know.. what rally are you talking about tomorrow? judging from this weeks perfomance of msc, the profit rise of 560% had already been factored into the price... there will most likely be no rally until full year announcement

but then again i do expect one in kenya re...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
VituVingiSana
#64 Posted : Thursday, February 04, 2010 10:32:17 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,346
Location: Nairobi
Mumias looks cheap at current prices. Also has lots of liquidity BUT I am waiting for a drop in the price (as is inevitable) as sellers show up!

Like many other firms (e.g. Safaricom) the larger players are buying out the smaller players... and this is a good thing for the stock price...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Cicero
#65 Posted : Friday, February 05, 2010 2:41:40 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 7/7/2009
Posts: 111
Yes, i agree with you @VVS, Mumias certainly looks cheap. With an EPS of ~64 cents already in the bag, i think an end of year EPS of KES2 or more is what we should all expect as the end of year results are released. Everything held constant, this share may at the end of the day favour those who will hold and wait for the almost certain positive announcement which will put it's value above KES20 end of this year where it belongs. Not so?
Don't gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it...
VituVingiSana
#66 Posted : Friday, February 05, 2010 3:35:36 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,346
Location: Nairobi
Cicero wrote:
With an EPS of ~64 cents already in the bag, i think an end of year EPS of KES2. Everything held constant, will put it's value above KES20 end of this year where it belongs. Not so?

LOL... I disagree!!!

On EPS I think it will be between 1.50 - 2.00 and anything higher will be a huge surprise to me.

I discount any 'tax' benefits since these are generally one-offs though they help in keeping the cash in-house.

Mumias at 10x PE is a little high since the risks with farmers, COMESA, etc remain high.

Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
guru267
#67 Posted : Friday, February 05, 2010 5:17:44 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
I agree with @VVS.. i tried all metrics to and try and justify a price of 20 and above for msc by year end but i just hit a brick wall... @VVS maybe there's something we're missing!!! because if i missed this boat because i missed something i'll beat myself to death...any extra info?????
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
VituVingiSana
#68 Posted : Friday, February 05, 2010 5:31:07 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,346
Location: Nairobi
@guru - We have not missed anything on Mumias... I doubt it will got to 20/- in 2010... I am waiting for a sub-10 price...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Njung'e
#69 Posted : Friday, February 05, 2010 8:56:45 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/7/2007
Posts: 11,935
Location: Nairobi
So the second half run might not be as rosy afterall.......Does someone remember Chaliwong saying Msc has so much cane??Liar ...Hell!!...Who will hold down this dude down for me while i bite his bottoms!!!smile .Truth....and this is sad so much so that,i wish Evans doesn't let it go this way......for the next couple of months,Msc will be operating for six days in a week due to cane shortage!!(VRS)....Grrrrrrrr!!!Sad
Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm.
ecstacy
#70 Posted : Friday, February 05, 2010 10:38:05 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2008
Posts: 4,449
I've gotten into MSC like a problem...not leaving anytime soon.
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