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Why dustbowl is the future
MugundaMan
#61 Posted : Friday, March 22, 2019 10:30:17 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/8/2018
Posts: 2,212
Location: DC (Dustbowl County)
guru me wrote:
Agree with the view that Kajiado will def expand if for nothing else, as a result of the natural growth of Nairobi.

The growth does need to be managed and not just allowed to happen organically as it has if DC is to live up to its full potential.

Some things that need to be addressed in my opinion are:

1. Water - there is a perennial crisis over dry taps for most residents. This despite the fact that Athi river is delivering millions of gallons of water to the Indian Ocean - and sometimes flooding peoples residences in the process - each year.

2. Industries: Despite a proliferation of Universities in DC owing to cheap (er) land, there are very few industries of note that have set up shop in DC as far as I can remember. Well there is EPZ and Kenchick etc - but these were pre existing and not very large. Other than the cement companies in Athir River cant think of any large scale industrial complexes that are being set up in the region. It may very well be a symptom of the incompetence of national government in attracting new industries to the country that spill over to the counties. But truth is for the DC to grow, as with all other counties, it needs to attract and incentivise industries to create employment within the county.

3. Infrastructure especially roads: DC has been the rational choice for Kenyans looking to move into home ownership owing to affordability of land and subsequently cheaper costs of home ownership. Sadly for those who end up buying or building homes in DC the realities of the daily commute push them back to Nairobery. Hopefully the train terminals resolve this issue but still feel there is no substitution for an efficient road network. Rail is very rigid in its routing and for that reason I remain unconvinced it alone will solve the issue. Unless we develop a comprehensive rail system similar to NY subway or London underground, a railway with a single destination though an improvement will not fully resolve the issue. Kitengela town as an example already needs a road expansion. Traffic there can be a biatch.


4. Speculators - I being one of them, need to be heavily punished for any parcels that they hold not put to productive use. Speculation pushes land prices up and in some areas leads to the inability to create sufficiently dense communities to allow for proliferation of support and essential services. There just is no critical mass for even the county government to justify spending money to bring roads, water, elec to some places because firstly - some people are holding land, unwilling to develop or sell at current prices, and secondly those willing to develop the land cannot afford the land prices and are forced to buy further inland where they can afford it. Only thing is this may be too far for them - far outweighing the joys of home ownership. Sort of a self reinforcing loop.

5. Master planning - essential to avoid creating a massive shanty town.



Ahsante for this enjoyable read. These are the types of posts that keep some of us coming back to Wazoo.

I agree with you on water, but these are simple to solve issues if everyone (including the national and county governments) took some simple steps to ensure water harvesting and storage is taken care of. You are so right about Athi River. It is comedic that Jewel in the Crown (Kite) has perennial water shortages yet Athi ambles along to the salty sea unharassed. Isatragedy. This means we personally have to take initiative to build enough storage per household to make sure we are water secure for months and months at a go each year.

I beg to differ with you on industries jameni. A drive down the stretch from Kisaju to Isinya reveals hundreds of industries coming up at rapid clip besides the ones you mentioned. There are tile manufacturers, feeds manufacturers, steel fabricators, building contractors, printers, glass manufacturers, precast concrete manufacturers, LPG plants and everything in between coming up like weeds! In fact I am scared Kitengela to Kajiado stretch will become more of an industrial corridor at the expense of the residential and service segments but only time will tell. Please do not forget that the whole reason Jewel in the Crown came into existence as a residential hub was the combination of cheap land - as you correctly pointed out - and a proliferation of industry - EPZ, cement etc. At 300,000 residents I highly doubt more than 20-30% of that figure are commuters to Nairobi. I think we Nairobians tend to have a bias in seeing only what is familiar to us. A couple of Nairobi-centric people complain about the commute and all of a sudden everybody thinks everyone in Kitengela commutes which is a terrible misconception IMHO.

Kite roads are already on turbo expansion mode. Bypasses are being built. Commuter railway station is coming up, slip roads have been tarmacked and feeder roads -though unpaved - are there galore. Isinya-Kiserian-Matasia-Ngong drive will be an epic one once the Isinya Kiserian stretch is 100% complete. With KURA taking over Ngong and Kajiado new municipalities, the only way to go is up. Funnily enough I enjoy murram roads these days. There is something very rustic and natural about murram roads which blend very well with nature as God created it. They are also perfect for jogging on. Ngong has the most potential on this infrastructure score IMHO. If the handlers of the town do not screw it up!

I agree with you on the importance of having critical mass. But as you have pointed out this is happening organically as Kenyans continue to breed like rats and Nairobi expands without in a 40km radius. Remember when Karen was considered the bundus (bush?) well Kerarapon (Karen ward side) became the new Karen of yore and then Kerarapon - Ngong side soon became the next frontier, now Ngong town is the next with prices following. The same is happening in Kite, Rongai and surrounds. Critical mass happened in Kite CBD and surrounds kitaambo, now it is spreading further out like a bad smell but in a good way. Kisaju was considered the boonies as little as ten years ago. Now sprawling estates are booming hard there. ISinya was a NO GO ZONE for any serious investor just a few years ago. Everybody laughed when you told them you were investing there. Now it is booming as land skyrockets in price and finding an affordable acre is an uphill task!

Bottom line if people think DC is red hot already they haven't seen nothing yet. As the population grows and Nairobi core becomes out of reach in terms of affordability for 99% of Nairobians who want to be owners and not renters, DC as you have pointed out is the natural destination- but not for long. Already prices are getting crazy. Those who zubaa now will have to run to Kajiado town and beyond in the coming few years to find something pocket friendly that they could have got closer to town had they invested wisely and struck while the iron was still hot.

NewMoney
#62 Posted : Sunday, March 24, 2019 4:00:59 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/1/2019
Posts: 170
Location: Nairobi
Not trying to spoil the party here but facts are facts. My opinion is that to say DC is the future is a very biased view of reality. Yes, Nairobi will grow and its borders will expand, but this does not at all imply the outskirts will see better ROI than the CBD. Investing in the suburbs is great, it will bring back some profit, but acquiring Apartments of similar value today near CBD will bring back similar if not better returns (I am rooting for better, obviously, because am biased too). Case in point, look at London, New York, and other older cities. Inner city properties have continued to pay more handsome returns than the suburbs. To quote this very balanced article (link below), "In the past, urban assets have outperformed suburban asset returns in both office and multifamily sectors. From 1996 to 2016, suburban multifamily fell behind its urban counterpart by 80 basis points, while the suburban office sector underperformed urban by 110 basis points."

Just my 2 cents.

Link: https://www.nreionline.c...-suburban-cre-investment
FRM2011
#63 Posted : Sunday, March 24, 2019 6:17:45 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 11/5/2010
Posts: 2,459
https://www.businessdail...6836-vnae2mz/index.html

@mugundaman, any idea where this land is ? I have a feeling this project will kick-off before Uhuru's 8,000 houses on EAPCC land.

In Athi river, I know not more than 4 families who own land more than 1,000 acres. A project of this magnitude would trigger a micro-economy boom within the area. That would make very many people rich and I want to be among those people.
MugundaMan
#64 Posted : Monday, March 25, 2019 9:07:49 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/8/2018
Posts: 2,212
Location: DC (Dustbowl County)
NewMoney wrote:
Not trying to spoil the party here but facts are facts. My opinion is that to say DC is the future is a very biased view of reality. Yes, Nairobi will grow and its borders will expand, but this does not at all imply the outskirts will see better ROI than the CBD. Investing in the suburbs is great, it will bring back some profit, but acquiring Apartments of similar value today near CBD will bring back similar if not better returns (I am rooting for better, obviously, because am biased too). Case in point, look at London, New York, and other older cities. Inner city properties have continued to pay more handsome returns than the suburbs. To quote this very balanced article (link below), "In the past, urban assets have outperformed suburban asset returns in both office and multifamily sectors. From 1996 to 2016, suburban multifamily fell behind its urban counterpart by 80 basis points, while the suburban office sector underperformed urban by 110 basis points."

Just my 2 cents.

Link: https://www.nreionline.c...suburban-cre-investment


Just relax and watch papa...relax and watch smile . We are not just talking ROI, but the future conurbation of human settlement that is a game-changer socio-economically for the next 100 years and beyond. It's like saying you would not invest in Nairobi in 1899 because Machakos (which was eventually bypassed by the Nairobi Railway line) was the capital city of Kenya at that time and ROI was very high hapo.
MugundaMan
#65 Posted : Monday, March 25, 2019 9:12:54 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/8/2018
Posts: 2,212
Location: DC (Dustbowl County)
FRM2011 wrote:
https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/news/Chinese-group-to-build-Sh200bn-Athi-River-city-city-plans/539546-5036836-vnae2mz/index.html

@mugundaman, any idea where this land is ? I have a feeling this project will kick-off before Uhuru's 8,000 houses on EAPCC land.

In Athi river, I know not more than 4 families who own land more than 1,000 acres. A project of this magnitude would trigger a micro-economy boom within the area. That would make very many people rich and I want to be among those people.


No idea whatsoever where the land is but I'm very happy that they are taking place Dancing. You will never go wrong investing near this city or anywhere in the Kitengela-Athi river area for that matter. Half of Nairobi might migrate there within the next 25 years especially after SGR reaches malaba, commuter rails and other infra are done and dusted.
MugundaMan
#66 Posted : Monday, March 25, 2019 9:15:57 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/8/2018
Posts: 2,212
Location: DC (Dustbowl County)
Ngong stadium phase 1 to be completed by May at long last! Applause
Roadside hawkers - gone
Largest market in East and central Africa - under construction
Stadium - being built
At this rate I might have to rebaptize Ngong as the new Jewel in the Crown instead of Kitengela smile Dancing
Either way may both towns boom to the skies!

http://countypress.co.ke...0ioUpySx9WYKxiG35TbL4jms
MugundaMan
#67 Posted : Monday, March 25, 2019 9:17:45 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/8/2018
Posts: 2,212
Location: DC (Dustbowl County)
Uhunye moves Madaraka celebrations to DC, drops 100m there

http://countypress.co.ke...tes-sh100m-for-stadium/

As I said before hata baba Ngina knows DC is the future Laughing out loudly Wenye wana macho wameona tu.
Angelica _ann
#68 Posted : Monday, March 25, 2019 9:24:53 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,935
MugundaMan wrote:
Uhunye moves Madaraka celebrations from DC, drops 100m there

http://countypress.co.ke...tes-sh100m-for-stadium/

As I said before hata baba Ngina knows DC is the future Laughing out loudly Wenye wana macho wameona tu.


In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
MugundaMan
#69 Posted : Monday, March 25, 2019 9:34:18 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/8/2018
Posts: 2,212
Location: DC (Dustbowl County)
Angelica _ann wrote:
MugundaMan wrote:
Uhunye moves Madaraka celebrations from DC, drops 100m there

http://countypress.co.ke...tes-sh100m-for-stadium/

As I said before hata baba Ngina knows DC is the future Laughing out loudly Wenye wana macho wameona tu.




Fine but at least he left the 100m there so DC can host in future smile
Lolest!
#70 Posted : Monday, March 25, 2019 9:46:05 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 3/18/2011
Posts: 12,069
Location: Kianjokoma
I must say I'm impressed with Kitengela town. Had not visited the town since 2011, it looks bigger and more beautiful.

Hope Kajiado govt uses its World Bank's Kenya Urban Support Programme funds well. Such fast growing towns end up looking ugly with time.
Laughing out loudly smile Applause d'oh! Sad Drool Liar Shame on you Pray
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