sparkly wrote:Given the nature of KK business (low margin commodity business), the company's conservative valuation is as good the earnings and dividends achieved. Applying a PE of 10 (on 0.74 EPS) and a DY of 3.5% (on 0.20 DPS) gives a valuation of 7.4 and 5.7 respectively.
Based on the historical earnings but not on future earnings.
Is 0.74 normalized earnings for KK?
I do not think so. I think it will rise to at least 1/- in 2015. Why?
1) Lower (current) oil prices [translate to lower fuel prices] give KK better margins both at wholesale and pump/retail.
2) Lower debt levels = lower interest costs [per Ohana's statement]
3) Lower interest rate = lower interest costs [per Ohana's statement]
4) More stations [after dumping certain low margin businesses], more cars, lower fuel prices = more volume [& competition]
5) A stronger balance sheet allows KK to get back into the trading/OTC business. Low margin, low risk, high volumes.
6) I expect KK to get out of certain [low volumes for KK] markets like Zambia & Tanzania where it hasn't built up bulk. Keep UG, RW, BU & ET.
At 1/- 'normalized' earnings then 10x PER = 10/- so not that great a buy at 9/-. I am banking on improvements in operations over the next 2 years within EAC.
And a sale of the firm.
Or I am going to be spectacularly wrong.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett