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Thoughts on TPS Serena
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,103 Location: Nairobi
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Aguytrying wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:rwitre wrote:mlennyma wrote:heri wrote:
From a high of sh 37 in Jan 2018 to sh 12 bob in 2 years . Massacre
Vvs zone Wueh  Nothing is safe from the bear. A beating and then some! Luckily, this is not "Core" for me. Biashara in KE is an extreme sport. Some industries/sectors have it tougher than others. CoronaVirus is going to devastate the tourism industry no matter how good the management. The expansion programme using debt is going to bite TPSEA. I am not selling nor am I buying. I am picking up some "core" dividend paying shares at lower prices. Is tourism business the new agriculture businesses wild swings and challenges. Actually more like the airline business. At this rate the share us getting a beating before fully recovering from the ebola beating a few years ago. Like you I'm eyeing the blue chips that were too mighty to fall, safcom, equity etc. No firm is forever. Those that will survive will have to be adept at adapting. The high-end market has much higher fixed costs and will suffer more during a downturn. Serena might choose to retain staff during the downturn. It may reduce hours/benefits but with other expenses the fixed costs remain high. The recent expansion will also weigh on profits with a huge interest bill but no-one to use the facilities. The Management could not have seen it coming just as most of the world did not. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:Aguytrying wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:rwitre wrote:mlennyma wrote:heri wrote:
From a high of sh 37 in Jan 2018 to sh 12 bob in 2 years . Massacre
Vvs zone Wueh Nothing is safe from the bear. A beating and then some! Luckily, this is not "Core" for me. Biashara in KE is an extreme sport. Some industries/sectors have it tougher than others. CoronaVirus is going to devastate the tourism industry no matter how good the management. The expansion programme using debt is going to bite TPSEA. I am not selling nor am I buying. I am picking up some "core" dividend paying shares at lower prices. Is tourism business the new agriculture businesses wild swings and challenges. Actually more like the airline business. At this rate the share us getting a beating before fully recovering from the ebola beating a few years ago. Like you I'm eyeing the blue chips that were too mighty to fall, safcom, equity etc. No firm is forever. Those that will survive will have to be adept at adapting. The high-end market has much higher fixed costs and will suffer more during a downturn. Serena might choose to retain staff during the downturn. It may reduce hours/benefits but with other expenses the fixed costs remain high. The recent expansion will also weigh on profits with a huge interest bill but no-one to use the facilities. The Management could not have seen it coming just as most of the world did not. They closed 10 Safari Lodges in Kenya and Tanzania. Fate has not been kind on tourism... terror, travel advisories, elections, siasa mingi, poor state of economy, now Covid-19. Add the highly leveraged balance sheet and solvency is going to be an issue. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,515 Location: nairobi
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sparkly wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Aguytrying wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:rwitre wrote:mlennyma wrote:heri wrote:
From a high of sh 37 in Jan 2018 to sh 12 bob in 2 years . Massacre
Vvs zone Wueh Nothing is safe from the bear. A beating and then some! Luckily, this is not "Core" for me. Biashara in KE is an extreme sport. Some industries/sectors have it tougher than others. CoronaVirus is going to devastate the tourism industry no matter how good the management. The expansion programme using debt is going to bite TPSEA. I am not selling nor am I buying. I am picking up some "core" dividend paying shares at lower prices. Is tourism business the new agriculture businesses wild swings and challenges. Actually more like the airline business. At this rate the share us getting a beating before fully recovering from the ebola beating a few years ago. Like you I'm eyeing the blue chips that were too mighty to fall, safcom, equity etc. No firm is forever. Those that will survive will have to be adept at adapting. The high-end market has much higher fixed costs and will suffer more during a downturn. Serena might choose to retain staff during the downturn. It may reduce hours/benefits but with other expenses the fixed costs remain high. The recent expansion will also weigh on profits with a huge interest bill but no-one to use the facilities. The Management could not have seen it coming just as most of the world did not. They closed 10 Safari Lodges in Kenya and Tanzania. Fate has not been kind on tourism... terror, travel advisories, elections, siasa mingi, poor state of economy, now Covid-19. Add the highly leveraged balance sheet and solvency is going to be an issue. Bad luck. Provision to write off this basket case
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,684 Location: NAIROBI
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VituVingiSana wrote:Aguytrying wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:rwitre wrote:mlennyma wrote:heri wrote:
From a high of sh 37 in Jan 2018 to sh 12 bob in 2 years . Massacre
Vvs zone Wueh Nothing is safe from the bear. A beating and then some! Luckily, this is not "Core" for me. Biashara in KE is an extreme sport. Some industries/sectors have it tougher than others. CoronaVirus is going to devastate the tourism industry no matter how good the management. The expansion programme using debt is going to bite TPSEA. I am not selling nor am I buying. I am picking up some "core" dividend paying shares at lower prices. Is tourism business the new agriculture businesses wild swings and challenges. Actually more like the airline business. At this rate the share us getting a beating before fully recovering from the ebola beating a few years ago. Like you I'm eyeing the blue chips that were too mighty to fall, safcom, equity etc. No firm is forever. Those that will survive will have to be adept at adapting. The high-end market has much higher fixed costs and will suffer more during a downturn. Serena might choose to retain staff during the downturn. It may reduce hours/benefits but with other expenses the fixed costs remain high. The recent expansion will also weigh on profits with a huge interest bill but no-one to use the facilities. The Management could not have seen it coming just as most of the world did not. This should be a lesson that in future,during the good times the money you make keep some as reserve for the future because good times don't last forever Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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obiero wrote:sparkly wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Aguytrying wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:rwitre wrote:mlennyma wrote:heri wrote:
From a high of sh 37 in Jan 2018 to sh 12 bob in 2 years . Massacre
Vvs zone Wueh Nothing is safe from the bear. A beating and then some! Luckily, this is not "Core" for me. Biashara in KE is an extreme sport. Some industries/sectors have it tougher than others. CoronaVirus is going to devastate the tourism industry no matter how good the management. The expansion programme using debt is going to bite TPSEA. I am not selling nor am I buying. I am picking up some "core" dividend paying shares at lower prices. Is tourism business the new agriculture businesses wild swings and challenges. Actually more like the airline business. At this rate the share us getting a beating before fully recovering from the ebola beating a few years ago. Like you I'm eyeing the blue chips that were too mighty to fall, safcom, equity etc. No firm is forever. Those that will survive will have to be adept at adapting. The high-end market has much higher fixed costs and will suffer more during a downturn. Serena might choose to retain staff during the downturn. It may reduce hours/benefits but with other expenses the fixed costs remain high. The recent expansion will also weigh on profits with a huge interest bill but no-one to use the facilities. The Management could not have seen it coming just as most of the world did not. They closed 10 Safari Lodges in Kenya and Tanzania. Fate has not been kind on tourism... terror, travel advisories, elections, siasa mingi, poor state of economy, now Covid-19. Add the highly leveraged balance sheet and solvency is going to be an issue. Bad luck. Provision to write off this basket case I will salvage whatever I can. I wonder why you haven't considered likewise for KQ now trading at 35 Cents pre-consolidation Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/7/2012 Posts: 11,908
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sparkly wrote:obiero wrote:sparkly wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Aguytrying wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:rwitre wrote:mlennyma wrote:heri wrote:
From a high of sh 37 in Jan 2018 to sh 12 bob in 2 years . Massacre
Vvs zone Wueh Nothing is safe from the bear. A beating and then some! Luckily, this is not "Core" for me. Biashara in KE is an extreme sport. Some industries/sectors have it tougher than others. CoronaVirus is going to devastate the tourism industry no matter how good the management. The expansion programme using debt is going to bite TPSEA. I am not selling nor am I buying. I am picking up some "core" dividend paying shares at lower prices. Is tourism business the new agriculture businesses wild swings and challenges. Actually more like the airline business. At this rate the share us getting a beating before fully recovering from the ebola beating a few years ago. Like you I'm eyeing the blue chips that were too mighty to fall, safcom, equity etc. No firm is forever. Those that will survive will have to be adept at adapting. The high-end market has much higher fixed costs and will suffer more during a downturn. Serena might choose to retain staff during the downturn. It may reduce hours/benefits but with other expenses the fixed costs remain high. The recent expansion will also weigh on profits with a huge interest bill but no-one to use the facilities. The Management could not have seen it coming just as most of the world did not. They closed 10 Safari Lodges in Kenya and Tanzania. Fate has not been kind on tourism... terror, travel advisories, elections, siasa mingi, poor state of economy, now Covid-19. Add the highly leveraged balance sheet and solvency is going to be an issue. Bad luck. Provision to write off this basket case I will salvage whatever I can. I wonder why you haven't considered likewise for KQ now trading at 35 Cents pre-consolidation I have always wondered what #TPS saw in this share over the last 4 years and you were diehards at it. I thought/my personal feeling is that Aga Khan has lost the public investment plot in Kenya/Africa over the last 10 years. Anyway GL all the veterans in here. In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,684 Location: NAIROBI
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Angelica _ann wrote:sparkly wrote:obiero wrote:sparkly wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Aguytrying wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:rwitre wrote:mlennyma wrote:heri wrote:
From a high of sh 37 in Jan 2018 to sh 12 bob in 2 years . Massacre
Vvs zone Wueh Nothing is safe from the bear. A beating and then some! Luckily, this is not "Core" for me. Biashara in KE is an extreme sport. Some industries/sectors have it tougher than others. CoronaVirus is going to devastate the tourism industry no matter how good the management. The expansion programme using debt is going to bite TPSEA. I am not selling nor am I buying. I am picking up some "core" dividend paying shares at lower prices. Is tourism business the new agriculture businesses wild swings and challenges. Actually more like the airline business. At this rate the share us getting a beating before fully recovering from the ebola beating a few years ago. Like you I'm eyeing the blue chips that were too mighty to fall, safcom, equity etc. No firm is forever. Those that will survive will have to be adept at adapting. The high-end market has much higher fixed costs and will suffer more during a downturn. Serena might choose to retain staff during the downturn. It may reduce hours/benefits but with other expenses the fixed costs remain high. The recent expansion will also weigh on profits with a huge interest bill but no-one to use the facilities. The Management could not have seen it coming just as most of the world did not. They closed 10 Safari Lodges in Kenya and Tanzania. Fate has not been kind on tourism... terror, travel advisories, elections, siasa mingi, poor state of economy, now Covid-19. Add the highly leveraged balance sheet and solvency is going to be an issue. Bad luck. Provision to write off this basket case I will salvage whatever I can. I wonder why you haven't considered likewise for KQ now trading at 35 Cents pre-consolidation I have always wondered what #TPS saw in this share over the last 4 years and you were diehards at it. I thought/my personal feeling is that Aga Khan has lost the public investment plot in Kenya/Africa over the last 10 years. Anyway GL all the veterans in here. His companies need fresh blood and ideas to drive them to the next level. Let's wait to see how Jubilee Holdings performed in 2019 Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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Angelica _ann wrote:sparkly wrote:obiero wrote:sparkly wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Aguytrying wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:rwitre wrote:mlennyma wrote:heri wrote:
From a high of sh 37 in Jan 2018 to sh 12 bob in 2 years . Massacre
Vvs zone Wueh Nothing is safe from the bear. A beating and then some! Luckily, this is not "Core" for me. Biashara in KE is an extreme sport. Some industries/sectors have it tougher than others. CoronaVirus is going to devastate the tourism industry no matter how good the management. The expansion programme using debt is going to bite TPSEA. I am not selling nor am I buying. I am picking up some "core" dividend paying shares at lower prices. Is tourism business the new agriculture businesses wild swings and challenges. Actually more like the airline business. At this rate the share us getting a beating before fully recovering from the ebola beating a few years ago. Like you I'm eyeing the blue chips that were too mighty to fall, safcom, equity etc. No firm is forever. Those that will survive will have to be adept at adapting. The high-end market has much higher fixed costs and will suffer more during a downturn. Serena might choose to retain staff during the downturn. It may reduce hours/benefits but with other expenses the fixed costs remain high. The recent expansion will also weigh on profits with a huge interest bill but no-one to use the facilities. The Management could not have seen it coming just as most of the world did not. They closed 10 Safari Lodges in Kenya and Tanzania. Fate has not been kind on tourism... terror, travel advisories, elections, siasa mingi, poor state of economy, now Covid-19. Add the highly leveraged balance sheet and solvency is going to be an issue. Bad luck. Provision to write off this basket case I will salvage whatever I can. I wonder why you haven't considered likewise for KQ now trading at 35 Cents pre-consolidation I have always wondered what #TPS saw in this share over the last 4 years and you were diehards at it. I thought/my personal feeling is that Aga Khan has lost the public investment plot in Kenya/Africa over the last 10 years. Anyway GL all the veterans in here. NAV is Kshs 50, completed refurbishments at their City Hotels (Kampala and Nairobi), good debt management. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,684 Location: NAIROBI
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sparkly wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:sparkly wrote:obiero wrote:sparkly wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Aguytrying wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:rwitre wrote:mlennyma wrote:heri wrote:
From a high of sh 37 in Jan 2018 to sh 12 bob in 2 years . Massacre
Vvs zone Wueh Nothing is safe from the bear. A beating and then some! Luckily, this is not "Core" for me. Biashara in KE is an extreme sport. Some industries/sectors have it tougher than others. CoronaVirus is going to devastate the tourism industry no matter how good the management. The expansion programme using debt is going to bite TPSEA. I am not selling nor am I buying. I am picking up some "core" dividend paying shares at lower prices. Is tourism business the new agriculture businesses wild swings and challenges. Actually more like the airline business. At this rate the share us getting a beating before fully recovering from the ebola beating a few years ago. Like you I'm eyeing the blue chips that were too mighty to fall, safcom, equity etc. No firm is forever. Those that will survive will have to be adept at adapting. The high-end market has much higher fixed costs and will suffer more during a downturn. Serena might choose to retain staff during the downturn. It may reduce hours/benefits but with other expenses the fixed costs remain high. The recent expansion will also weigh on profits with a huge interest bill but no-one to use the facilities. The Management could not have seen it coming just as most of the world did not. They closed 10 Safari Lodges in Kenya and Tanzania. Fate has not been kind on tourism... terror, travel advisories, elections, siasa mingi, poor state of economy, now Covid-19. Add the highly leveraged balance sheet and solvency is going to be an issue. Bad luck. Provision to write off this basket case I will salvage whatever I can. I wonder why you haven't considered likewise for KQ now trading at 35 Cents pre-consolidation I have always wondered what #TPS saw in this share over the last 4 years and you were diehards at it. I thought/my personal feeling is that Aga Khan has lost the public investment plot in Kenya/Africa over the last 10 years. Anyway GL all the veterans in here. NAV is Kshs 50, completed refurbishments at their City Hotels (Kampala and Nairobi), good debt management. Competition is giving them a rough ride Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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Ericsson wrote:sparkly wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:sparkly wrote:obiero wrote:sparkly wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Aguytrying wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:rwitre wrote:mlennyma wrote:heri wrote:
From a high of sh 37 in Jan 2018 to sh 12 bob in 2 years . Massacre
Vvs zone Wueh Nothing is safe from the bear. A beating and then some! Luckily, this is not "Core" for me. Biashara in KE is an extreme sport. Some industries/sectors have it tougher than others. CoronaVirus is going to devastate the tourism industry no matter how good the management. The expansion programme using debt is going to bite TPSEA. I am not selling nor am I buying. I am picking up some "core" dividend paying shares at lower prices. Is tourism business the new agriculture businesses wild swings and challenges. Actually more like the airline business. At this rate the share us getting a beating before fully recovering from the ebola beating a few years ago. Like you I'm eyeing the blue chips that were too mighty to fall, safcom, equity etc. No firm is forever. Those that will survive will have to be adept at adapting. The high-end market has much higher fixed costs and will suffer more during a downturn. Serena might choose to retain staff during the downturn. It may reduce hours/benefits but with other expenses the fixed costs remain high. The recent expansion will also weigh on profits with a huge interest bill but no-one to use the facilities. The Management could not have seen it coming just as most of the world did not. They closed 10 Safari Lodges in Kenya and Tanzania. Fate has not been kind on tourism... terror, travel advisories, elections, siasa mingi, poor state of economy, now Covid-19. Add the highly leveraged balance sheet and solvency is going to be an issue. Bad luck. Provision to write off this basket case I will salvage whatever I can. I wonder why you haven't considered likewise for KQ now trading at 35 Cents pre-consolidation I have always wondered what #TPS saw in this share over the last 4 years and you were diehards at it. I thought/my personal feeling is that Aga Khan has lost the public investment plot in Kenya/Africa over the last 10 years. Anyway GL all the veterans in here. NAV is Kshs 50, completed refurbishments at their City Hotels (Kampala and Nairobi), good debt management. Competition is giving them a rough ride Serena can stand the competition. Things were looking up following completion of the developments but Corona has happened. The impact on hotels is severe. Because of this, I've cut my loss. I'll relook when things return to normalcy completely. Most likely after a year and half or so
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,103 Location: Nairobi
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Most hotels are in deep doo-doo. We can't compare with others since TPS is the only one which is listed but the 5-star hotels eg Sankara, Intercont, Kempinski, etc are probably all bleeding. 🩸 I am going to provision TPS and can afford to hold onto the shares. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,684 Location: NAIROBI
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Serena Beach Hotel in Mombasa shut down Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/10/2014 Posts: 969 Location: Kenya
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Ericsson wrote:Serena Beach Hotel in Mombasa shut down Until a vaccine is developed I don't see tourism recovering in less than a year.
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Rank: Member Joined: 7/10/2014 Posts: 145 Location: Nairobi
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watesh wrote:Ericsson wrote:Serena Beach Hotel in Mombasa shut down Until a vaccine is developed I don't see tourism recovering in less than a year. Terrible even after a vaccine is discovered many foreigners especially from the west will be fearful and consider risky to visit Africa. "Blowing out someone else candle won't make yours shine brighter"-Anonymous
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/10/2014 Posts: 969 Location: Kenya
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jgithige wrote:watesh wrote:Ericsson wrote:Serena Beach Hotel in Mombasa shut down Until a vaccine is developed I don't see tourism recovering in less than a year. Terrible even after a vaccine is discovered many foreigners especially from the west will be fearful and consider risky to visit Africa. Very true, very slow recovery in foreign tourists. Local tourists will be key in giving the sector a lifeline post virus similar to the time when alshabaab wrecked the industry.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,684 Location: NAIROBI
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watesh wrote:jgithige wrote:watesh wrote:Ericsson wrote:Serena Beach Hotel in Mombasa shut down Until a vaccine is developed I don't see tourism recovering in less than a year. Terrible even after a vaccine is discovered many foreigners especially from the west will be fearful and consider risky to visit Africa. Very true, very slow recovery in foreign tourists. Local tourists will be key in giving the sector a lifeline post virus similar to the time when alshabaab wrecked the industry. Local tourists it will be tough. Count the job losses and diminishing disposable income Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,515 Location: nairobi
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Ericsson wrote:watesh wrote:jgithige wrote:watesh wrote:Ericsson wrote:Serena Beach Hotel in Mombasa shut down Until a vaccine is developed I don't see tourism recovering in less than a year. Terrible even after a vaccine is discovered many foreigners especially from the west will be fearful and consider risky to visit Africa. Very true, very slow recovery in foreign tourists. Local tourists will be key in giving the sector a lifeline post virus similar to the time when alshabaab wrecked the industry. Local tourists it will be tough. Count the job losses and diminishing disposable income Taabu
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Member Joined: 7/10/2014 Posts: 145 Location: Nairobi
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obiero wrote:Ericsson wrote:watesh wrote:jgithige wrote:watesh wrote:Ericsson wrote:Serena Beach Hotel in Mombasa shut down Until a vaccine is developed I don't see tourism recovering in less than a year. Terrible even after a vaccine is discovered many foreigners especially from the west will be fearful and consider risky to visit Africa. Very true, very slow recovery in foreign tourists. Local tourists will be key in giving the sector a lifeline post virus similar to the time when alshabaab wrecked the industry. Local tourists it will be tough. Count the job losses and diminishing disposable income Taabu Uhuru's statement earlier today on Nairobi & Mombasa lockdown has crushed what was left. Imagine the earlier offpeak bookings locals had made for Easter no longer tenable. It's a wait and see tomorrow as Kenyans rush to their agents for refund. "Blowing out someone else candle won't make yours shine brighter"-Anonymous
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/10/2014 Posts: 969 Location: Kenya
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jgithige wrote:obiero wrote:Ericsson wrote:watesh wrote:jgithige wrote:watesh wrote:Ericsson wrote:Serena Beach Hotel in Mombasa shut down Until a vaccine is developed I don't see tourism recovering in less than a year. Terrible even after a vaccine is discovered many foreigners especially from the west will be fearful and consider risky to visit Africa. Very true, very slow recovery in foreign tourists. Local tourists will be key in giving the sector a lifeline post virus similar to the time when alshabaab wrecked the industry. Local tourists it will be tough. Count the job losses and diminishing disposable income Taabu Uhuru's statement earlier today on Nairobi & Mombasa lockdown has crushed what was left. Imagine the earlier offpeak bookings locals had made for Easter no longer tenable. It's a wait and see tomorrow as Kenyans rush to their agents for refund. Yikes!!!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,684 Location: NAIROBI
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watesh wrote:jgithige wrote:obiero wrote:Ericsson wrote:watesh wrote:jgithige wrote:watesh wrote:Ericsson wrote:Serena Beach Hotel in Mombasa shut down Until a vaccine is developed I don't see tourism recovering in less than a year. Terrible even after a vaccine is discovered many foreigners especially from the west will be fearful and consider risky to visit Africa. Very true, very slow recovery in foreign tourists. Local tourists will be key in giving the sector a lifeline post virus similar to the time when alshabaab wrecked the industry. Local tourists it will be tough. Count the job losses and diminishing disposable income Taabu Uhuru's statement earlier today on Nairobi & Mombasa lockdown has crushed what was left. Imagine the earlier offpeak bookings locals had made for Easter no longer tenable. It's a wait and see tomorrow as Kenyans rush to their agents for refund. Yikes!!! Agents shutting down,hotels closing. Will the additional taxes by Ukur Yattani in proposed bill achieve much Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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