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How to tell NSE has topped/Maxed out.
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2012 Posts: 5,222
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S.Mutaga III wrote:hisah wrote:NSE20 2015 snapshot. The index is in negative territory for 2015.  This may be a bad year to hunt for capital gains, the best one can do is break even if lucky. However, most returns for 2015 will be from dividends, not capital gains, if this trend continues. And just when you'd decided to join the market, after opting out 
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 830
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Mukiri wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:hisah wrote:NSE20 2015 snapshot. The index is in negative territory for 2015. This may be a bad year to hunt for capital gains, the best one can do is break even if lucky. However, most returns for 2015 will be from dividends, not capital gains, if this trend continues. And just when you'd decided to join the market, after opting out I am still going to invest, with a longer investment horizon. I believe that the counters I chose were bargains at that time. KPLC and Kenya Re have declined marginally but Unga is already up 15% since I bought it. So my portfolio is still in the green. I will only focus on these three counters and buy more as prices decline...my target is to buy a second tranche of Kenya Re and KPLC at KSh 15 A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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The market is clinging on to that 5000 mark as if it's life depends on it and its almost funny. Meanwhile the govt has already forked out 51b to ease the shilling's slide. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,568 Location: nairobi
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lochaz-index wrote:The market is clinging on to that 5000 mark as if it's life depends on it and its almost funny. Meanwhile the govt has already forked out 51b to ease the shilling's slide. the Alshabaab have done us in.. The market slide is directly linked to Garissa.. Manufacturers are feeling the brunt of USD gain on the KES.. We are done upto the time Cousin Obama comes into town
COOP 70,000 ABP 15.20; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Hello Joined: 4/20/2015 Posts: 8
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obiero wrote:lochaz-index wrote:The market is clinging on to that 5000 mark as if it's life depends on it and its almost funny. Meanwhile the govt has already forked out 51b to ease the shilling's slide. the Alshabaab have done us in.. The market slide is directly linked to Garissa.. Manufacturers are feeling the brunt of USD gain on the KES.. We are done upto the time Cousin Obama comes into town To be honest, I don't think this is entirely a sad thing in a market where there are barely any bargains. I am holding out my war chest till the bear pays a visit. And when that time comes, I'll be ready. As the towering mammal rummages though the NSE whilst ripping though stocks with its golden claws, i'll be in tow picking up the scraps. The psychological toll on investors in the wake of the bear run will call for abdominal fortitude which (if the sociological gospel according to @Mnadii is anything to go by) will be lacking among most investors. In my opinion there have been a couple of false dawns. Hopefully, this time round the sun will actually rise. 
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Rank: Member Joined: 7/3/2014 Posts: 245
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I note the daily rise of "Where do I invest ?" more interestingly is the replies are lacking "hot stock tips" This would've been unheard of in 2013-2014. In the world of securities, courage and patience become the supreme virtues after adequate knowledge and a tested judgment are at hand.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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TheGeek wrote:I note the daily rise of "Where do I invest ?" more interestingly is the replies are lacking "hot stock tips" This would've been unheard of in 2013-2014.
It's just getting started. When the bear will be in full chaos mode there will be no posts here as those 'rosy' analyst reports vanish.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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hisah wrote:Aguytrying wrote:hisah wrote:Gatheuzi wrote:hisah wrote:TheGeek wrote:Metasploit wrote:@ Geek..very interesting picks.I like the volume spike on Scan Group.
Please have the RSI column of Scan group in the chart!!
Done. I've placed by bet on scan. Welcome aboard! I had loaded up in Feb then in March the EXP merger deal collapsed. That was a nasty surprise to my expectations as it was a major part of the investment equation. I've been selling since Mar 12. The illiquid conditions in this counter make selling or buying such a pain. There's blood on the streets. No one is saying it, but there's alot of blood letting going on... Like you had said, shares are taking a beating, Lets hope its a correction not the bear coming in Until that 4yr rising wedge is broken down, this is just a correction. A bear will be obvious since mpesa bank will also be heavily bent down during that phase.
USDKES > 100 is the line in the sand. Since this post on Apr 12 the following has happened:
1. The 4yr rising wedge has broken down as 5000 handle broke down and tested 4700 support zone.
2. USD/KES > 100
New developments
3. Crazy expansionary budget proposed by treasury.
4. CGT madness which treasury gave up the fight but proposed a punitive taxation levy on equity sales.
5. CBK has hiked CBR by a shocking 300bps in 4 weeks! Will defend KES at whatever cost ignoring the econ slump. Recession be damned!
Globally
- USD rate hike looms - this will really hurt
- Greece crisis
@aguy fat tails are on the way. Just be patient.
What I expect at NSE20 is just a series of lower lows. 4400 will not be able to support a guns blazing CBK shorting the market with this crazy rate hikes. Bulls need liquidity which CBK is aggressively grab from them. 4000 will likely be tested as the pressure piles up as H1 results come out soon.
Conclusion: Very tough business staying bullish at NSE vs bad econ macros and a shorting CBK. Then add the global macros of Grexit and USD strength and you realize one needs more than luck to stay afloat.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Is that britam below 20 handle? Geez! Closed @18.75. Sit tight! Meanwhile NSE20 slumped 1.1% yesterday closing at 4762 in response to that CBK shock hike after rebounding to 4900 from 4745. Irrational selling period coming up! $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: User Joined: 1/20/2014 Posts: 3,528
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Many Wanjikus will get ulcers central by end of 2015 since the market is dipping slowly slowly, slow punctures. They will realise the slide later than late!!! Formal education will make you a living. Self-education will make you a fortune - Jim Rohn.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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hisah wrote:Is that britam below 20 handle? Geez! Closed @18.75. Sit tight! Meanwhile NSE20 slumped 1.1% yesterday closing at 4762 in response to that CBK shock hike after rebounding to 4900 from 4745. Irrational selling period coming up! I'm sitting tight with a chunk In bills/mmf as I wait. It's surprising to see britam descending so fast. Season 2 of fat tails buying time. No hurry like u say The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/1/2014 Posts: 906 Location: sky
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Othelo wrote:Many Wanjikus will get ulcers central by end of 2015 since the market is dipping slowly slowly, slow punctures. They will realise the slide later than late!!! the bear arrived long time ago, its only that it was feeding on some appetisers before embarking on a major feast! some counters have already lost more than 30% from their peak and during those peak they traded heavy volumes. or how do you explain somebody who bought carbacid at above 60 and now 18, EA portland at above 110 and now its 55, britam at above 35 and now 18, cic at above 12 and now 7.60, HF at above 50 now 27, transcentury at above 30 now 13, uchumi at above 20 now 8, cfc above 150 etc only less than 5 blue chips are holding the index thus making many not to realize the impact There are only two emotions in the stock market, fear and hope. The problem is, you hope when you should fear and fear when you should hope
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,184 Location: nairobi
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None of my stocks has lost from my entry points,can i sell instead of praising myself?when is the market preparing to beat me?? "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 2/15/2012 Posts: 29 Location: unimportant
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littledove wrote:Othelo wrote:Many Wanjikus will get ulcers central by end of 2015 since the market is dipping slowly slowly, slow punctures. They will realise the slide later than late!!! the bear arrived long time ago, its only that it was feeding on some appetisers before embarking on a major feast! some counters have already lost more than 30% from their peak and during those peak they traded heavy volumes. or how do you explain somebody who bought carbacid at above 60 and now 18, EA portland at above 110 and now its 55, britam at above 35 and now 18, cic at above 12 and now 7.60, HF at above 50 now 27, transcentury at above 30 now 13, uchumi at above 20 now 8, cfc above 150 etc only less than 5 blue chips are holding the index thus making many not to realize the impact often overlooked, volume analysis is a proven method of looking at the general direction of the market. Selling pressure continues by glancing at the RSI(37) A look at the 2 year daily chart of the NSE-20 share index: NVI(smart money) is trading below its 255 day SMA, likewise is the PVI(crowd followers/wanjikus). The probability of a bear market from these 2 observations is 53% and 67% respectively. *Created by Norman Fosback in the mid 70’s, it is worth noting that the PVI can give you fairly good indications of the market condition at a glance depending on whether it is above or below its yearly average.  You can read more on Fosback’s observations hereThe Emotional Dog and Its Rational Tail
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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Watch the markets for some interesting activities these coming weeks. "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/13/2014 Posts: 386 Location: Denmark
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murchr wrote:Watch the markets for some interesting activities these coming weeks. I hate this term 'interesting' which is very consistent with jimnah mbaru remarks at the start of the year. Seeing is believing
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Rank: Member Joined: 12/1/2007 Posts: 539 Location: Nakuru
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jawgey wrote:murchr wrote:Watch the markets for some interesting activities these coming weeks. I hate this term 'interesting' which is very consistent with jimnah mbaru remarks at the start of the year. Generates heat in the belly but sheds no light on any direction For investors as a whole, returns decrease as motion increases ~ WB
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,184 Location: nairobi
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winmak wrote:jawgey wrote:murchr wrote:Watch the markets for some interesting activities these coming weeks. I hate this term 'interesting' which is very consistent with jimnah mbaru remarks at the start of the year. Generates heat in the belly but sheds no light on any direction basing on jimna mbaru and what the market state is now,you should be able to define what interesting means "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,568 Location: nairobi
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samaki imeharibika kutoka kichwa.. KCB at 54
COOP 70,000 ABP 15.20; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,134 Location: Nairobi
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obiero wrote:samaki imeharibika kutoka kichwa.. KCB at 54 And your buddies at KQ can't catch a break. http://www.businessdaily...60/-/2w68ys/-/index.htmlGreedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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