Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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hooverrl wrote:Hi everyone, Lots of good points raised. I'm generally skeptical of IPOs, but this looks like it may offer some long-term value to individual investors. I just posted my quick valuation exercise for the IPO here. Is the NSE IPO a Bargain?Many thanks, and I greatly value your feedback! Ryan Thanks for that scintillating analysis. As Ruskin has noted, they are a flurry of new listings, Rights issues, REITS and fixed income securities occurring this year and in 2015. So the earnings of the NSE may assume a new higher normal. If the derivatives, options and futures also come on board that can sustain a growth momentum over the years. I like your conservative estimates, better than to over estimate. I believe at the minimum, your estimate will be achieved. The offer is seeking to raise only 627M shillings, if even a few institutional jump onto this counter, the will be a massive over subscription. the only threat to this i feel is that, lay investors and even other investors may not fully understand or appreciate NSE as business hence it may be hard to whip up the excitement like other IPO's have done. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/25/2012 Posts: 1,624 Location: Langley
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Aguytrying wrote:hooverrl wrote:Hi everyone, Lots of good points raised. I'm generally skeptical of IPOs, but this looks like it may offer some long-term value to individual investors. I just posted my quick valuation exercise for the IPO here. Is the NSE IPO a Bargain?Many thanks, and I greatly value your feedback! Ryan Thanks for that scintillating analysis. As Ruskin has noted, they are a flurry of new listings, Rights issues, REITS and fixed income securities occurring this year and in 2015. So the earnings of the NSE may assume a new higher normal. If the derivatives, options and futures also come on board that can sustain a growth momentum over the years. I like your conservative estimates, better than to over estimate. I believe at the minimum, your estimate will be achieved. The offer is seeking to raise only 627M shillings, if even a few institutional jump onto this counter, the will be a massive over subscription. the only threat to this i feel is that, lay investors and even other investors may not fully understand or appreciate NSE as business hence it may be hard to whip up the excitement like other IPO's have done. Tax rate should be less than 30% though. If you have built castles in the air, your work need not be lost; that is where they should be. Now put the foundations under them.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,121 Location: Nairobi
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120mn [not 115mn] written back as 'recovered' from 2 collapsed brokers. Read 17(b). Non-recurring. 40mn for "Market Access" from CBA. Likely to be non-recurring. There is another 41mn bad debt "write back" but I cannot determine what it is for. Non-recurring" So add these up and one gets 200mn in "non-recurring" income that goes straight to the bottom-line. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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VituVingiSana wrote:120mn [not 115mn] written back as 'recovered' from 2 collapsed brokers. Read 17(b). Non-recurring.
40mn for "Market Access" from CBA. Likely to be non-recurring.
There is another 41mn bad debt "write back" but I cannot determine what it is for. Non-recurring"
So add these up and one gets 200mn in "non-recurring" income that goes straight to the bottom-line. Thanks for opening our eyes. Im not so sure about this IPO now. For sure a profit warning is coming The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,702 Location: NAIROBI
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NSE IPO is on-going and they can't even update the daily price list on their website. Site still showing prices of last week Friday Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/12/2009 Posts: 312
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Ericsson wrote:NSE IPO is on-going and they can't even update the daily price list on their website.
Site still showing prices of last week Friday @ ericsson, How comes there is no agressive advertising like in yestar IPOs? I have not seen it on TV!  Though this is not a fis market, something fishy seems to be going on. 
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
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On radios its being advertised,on tv i have not yet seen. "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,702 Location: NAIROBI
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@Wondergirl; Maybe they didn't allocate enough money to do a massive advertising Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/2/2008 Posts: 268 Location: Nairobi
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mlennyma wrote:On radios its being advertised,on tv i have not yet seen. May be they are targeting radio listeners, not TV viewers.
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/12/2009 Posts: 312
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icecube wrote:mlennyma wrote:On radios its being advertised,on tv i have not yet seen. May be they are targeting radio listeners, not TV viewers.  
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/9/2014 Posts: 130 Location: Nairobi
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People relate more to what they see than what they hear, so I suppose a certain percentage should be apportioned to TV Viewing. To prove how much TV viewership can shape opinion, take the example of Faulu's advert of 'chini kwa chini loans'
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/9/2014 Posts: 130 Location: Nairobi
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People relate more to what they see than what they hear, so I suppose a certain percentage should be apportioned to TV Viewing. To prove how much TV viewership can shape opinion, take the example of Faulu's advert of 'chini kwa chini loans'
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/25/2012 Posts: 1,624 Location: Langley
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Wondergirl wrote:icecube wrote:mlennyma wrote:On radios its being advertised,on tv i have not yet seen. May be they are targeting radio listeners, not TV viewers. NTV, i have seen it twice between 2030hrs and 2130hrs. If you have built castles in the air, your work need not be lost; that is where they should be. Now put the foundations under them.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/25/2012 Posts: 1,624 Location: Langley
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Mastermind wrote:Wondergirl wrote:icecube wrote:mlennyma wrote:On radios its being advertised,on tv i have not yet seen. May be they are targeting radio listeners, not TV viewers. NTV, i have seen it twice between 2030hrs and 2130hrs. Actually thats what am watching now If you have built castles in the air, your work need not be lost; that is where they should be. Now put the foundations under them.
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 7/29/2014 Posts: 10 Location: BUNGOMA
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Is this IPO a good buy? or we allow the big fish to catch it then we come on board later...WAZUAN thoughts please.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 4/22/2010 Posts: 11,522 Location: Nairobi
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tajiriaggrey wrote:Is this IPO a good buy? or we allow the big fish to catch it then we come on board later...WAZUAN thoughts please. This is what people have been discussing throughout this thread,take time and go through it. possunt quia posse videntur
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Rank: Hello Joined: 7/26/2014 Posts: 7
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Magnate wrote:NSE is offloading only 66,000,000 shares at 9.50,the minimum shares one can purchase is 500 shares at 4750Kshs,.
The 66m shares representing 34% is a constricted number and i see some institutional investors taking positions and wanting to increase their stake immediately after listing of this brokers club business on Sept 9th.
i wont be left out on this one Magnate, am not certain of to buy coz i need the money by Oct 1. And i don't want to invest for long just short term and am out,What do you think? 
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/28/2014 Posts: 149 Location: Nairobi
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maka wrote:tajiriaggrey wrote:Is this IPO a good buy? or we allow the big fish to catch it then we come on board later...WAZUAN thoughts please. This is what people have been discussing throughout this thread,take time and go through it. @maka: You are exceedingly polite. You were obviously not a monolizer.  When you live for others' opinions, you are dead.
- Carlos Slim Helu
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/13/2011 Posts: 284 Location: Nairobi
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Aguytrying wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:120mn [not 115mn] written back as 'recovered' from 2 collapsed brokers. Read 17(b). Non-recurring.
40mn for "Market Access" from CBA. Likely to be non-recurring.
There is another 41mn bad debt "write back" but I cannot determine what it is for. Non-recurring"
So add these up and one gets 200mn in "non-recurring" income that goes straight to the bottom-line. Thanks for opening our eyes. Im not so sure about this IPO now. For sure a profit warning is coming I tend to view this from another angle; the liquidity angle. The number of shares on offer tend to be few, around 66m compared 2 many ipo's. The demand/ supply angle will then come in play here n will in th short term outweigh th bad debt dimension...my thoughts
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/28/2014 Posts: 149 Location: Nairobi
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The broker houses are all recommending this as a BUY. Sterling Research sees a 20% upside. When you live for others' opinions, you are dead.
- Carlos Slim Helu
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