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Pan Africa Insurance 1H13 PAT jumps 266%
King G
#61 Posted : Wednesday, November 20, 2013 1:34:28 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/20/2012
Posts: 3,855
Location: Othumo
VituVingiSana wrote:
Kausha wrote:
That fair value is very wonky and based on gut estimates than the underlying book in the business. Look at pan africa's Embedded value and you will realize that the price is exegerated and highly unlikely a takeover would happen at such elevated Embedded Value multiples. At 75 the counter is trading at an approx EV multiple of 1.7 suggesting at least 50% premium to fair value.
Speculation cannot be fought. We can't sell short. And until Sanlam gets its 60% (or is it 75%) there is little one can do. Once it has what it wants, the price will probably stagnate. I would rather buy Britam for the long-haul.

As Warren Buffett says. In the long term, the market is a weighing machine not a popularity contest.


But others are making money in the speculation as it is now!!!!!
Thieves
Magnate
#62 Posted : Wednesday, November 20, 2013 1:46:58 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/1/2013
Posts: 257
King G wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Kausha wrote:
That fair value is very wonky and based on gut estimates than the underlying book in the business. Look at pan africa's Embedded value and you will realize that the price is exegerated and highly unlikely a takeover would happen at such elevated Embedded Value multiples. At 75 the counter is trading at an approx EV multiple of 1.7 suggesting at least 50% premium to fair value.
Speculation cannot be fought. We can't sell short. And until Sanlam gets its 60% (or is it 75%) there is little one can do. Once it has what it wants, the price will probably stagnate. I would rather buy Britam for the long-haul.

As Warren Buffett says. In the long term, the market is a weighing machine not a popularity contest.


But others are making money in the speculation as it is now!!!!!


by the time they will be announcing their 4bob dividend in Feb we shall in printing 100+
No diagnosis,no pragnosis,no pragnosis no profit......Jesse livermore
mibbz
#63 Posted : Wednesday, November 20, 2013 1:51:52 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/18/2011
Posts: 448
@magnate....been following this stock past 6 months,this was inevitable. as i said profits are up this year and any sensible take over by Sanlam should happen before release of results as it shall become too expensive for them post release of results

Again 300k shares moved last week,thats a big entry by deep pockets; I believe it was Sanlam buying in.

Lets wait for 100 bob very soon
Kausha
#64 Posted : Wednesday, November 20, 2013 2:40:26 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/8/2007
Posts: 808
I like how the market becomes careless. At 300k shares = Sanlam buying, wahh, December will probably come, Jan will and Feb will and there probably will be no takeover.
sorovi
#65 Posted : Wednesday, November 20, 2013 11:37:45 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 8/3/2007
Posts: 146
SA firm’s stake in Pan Africa doubles to Sh4.1 billion

link
mibbz
#66 Posted : Thursday, November 21, 2013 12:21:40 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/18/2011
Posts: 448
@kausha, i deeply respect you because you joined wazua in 2007 while i was still in University and more importantly a wanjiku investor buying IPOs with euphoria;if wazua was like this back then,i must have missed out on a lot so much respect for that.

mibbz
#67 Posted : Thursday, November 21, 2013 12:50:57 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/18/2011
Posts: 448
But lets crunch the numbers using available data,both from wazua page and the BD story;

Pan Africa has 96,000,000 issued shares as per data on the wazua stock profiler page
.
Allow me to copy paste the BD article here with acknowledgment of the author, George Ngigi

'Regulatory filings to the Capital Markets Authority shows Sanlam bought 108,600 shares in the eight months to August, raising its total shareholding to 53.6 million shares.

This is in line with the company’s disclosure of intention to increase its stake in the insurer to 60 per cent from the 50 per cent held then. As at end of August its stake was 55.81 per cent, from 55.69 per cent in December.'



In August 2013 Sanlam had accumulated 53.6 Million shares equivalent to approximately 55.83%. This is 4.17% or approximately 4 Million shares below their target of 60% acquisition.

I can confidently state since August this year not more than a million Pan Africa shares have traded;i check the stock every single day and the most action it has seen this year was almost 450k shares moving last 2 weeks within which a notable
block of approximately 300k shares was available at a price of 70 bob earlier on in the price rally.In fact appetite at 70 was so high thus the reason it edged to 73 where 4k shares existed momentarily then went to 75-76 range till yesterday.

Lets be real,if you were the investment manager to the anonymous buyer(Sanlam) would you wait for price to reach 100 bob then buy or start buying now?!

What might have spooked huge anonymous buyer(Sanlam) into buying was the report on insurance sector valuation released last week;Pan Africa had the biggest upside in valuation thus anticipated capital gains and possibly existing shareholders firmly clutching onto their stock.

Lastly, remember the Insurance act is to be amended to allow foreign ownership of insurance firms to exceed 60%,that shall be the last nail on the coffin of doubt as to the future of valuations in this sector as it shall open it up to M n A....

Factor the above into the price and you shall see why the price is edging higher;it can only stop if you sell 3 Million shares to Sanlam or unless someone convinces them to change strategy on an investment that has made them 2 Billion this year.

The above is my theory on the whole Pan Africa issue;Thanks
the deal
#68 Posted : Thursday, November 21, 2013 7:32:11 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Sanlam buying aside...PAI is overvalued. The moment the NSE starts struggling...PAI starts wobbling...The 2nd Half is not that great...depending on how NSE and money markets perform in H1 2014 then we are looking at a steepy decline in earnings...do not participate in folly...profit from it.
guru267
#69 Posted : Thursday, November 21, 2013 9:50:00 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
Fair value = 110

Lets make money people!!! smile
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
Kausha
#70 Posted : Thursday, November 21, 2013 10:24:00 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/8/2007
Posts: 808
@Mibbz, a few clarifications, between the majority shareholder (controlling half the board and driving strategy) and the analysts, who in your rightful thinking do you think knows more about the company. You will be surprised the analysts most likely didn't meet management so clearly they are not any better than you and me.

Please convert the KES 2B into rand and then go look at how much profit the mother company makes - it's listed on the JSE. The 2B is not much money for the business plus they consolidate the business and are more interested in the profitability and top line growth and not stock prices.

Sanlam has other larger listed companies in exchanges in Africa just have a look. Have yet to see them delist any.
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