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Kenya airways Right Issue
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mkeiy
#121 Posted : Wednesday, March 21, 2012 3:41:31 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/27/2012
Posts: 851
Location: Nairobi
jerry wrote:
Should they stop the rights altogether and cite non-approval by UG&TZ?smile


Do the capital market authorities in UG and TZ have to approve? I've never thought of it.
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the deal
#122 Posted : Wednesday, March 21, 2012 3:48:53 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
mkeiy wrote:
the deal wrote:
Talking is a waste of time, what you should be doing is looking for an entry point...they're not raising cash to eat...they're raising cash to buy assets.


What are you saying? People should stop discussing KQ? I got a good shave on them before i bounced but that's not reason to make me bitter.

Let people talk, it breaks no bone and it ain't profanity.

It's good to talk but why celebrate someones loss?Sad Sad
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mkeiy
#123 Posted : Wednesday, March 21, 2012 4:05:17 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/27/2012
Posts: 851
Location: Nairobi
@ the deal

I lost,so did others.
People are not celebrating at anyone's loss in particular,not from what i have read. It's the whole thing.
It's something that happened beyond the control of majority of us.
A good company bedeviled by its sector.

The swahilis say "kifo cha wengi ni harusi".
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VituVingiSana
#124 Posted : Thursday, March 22, 2012 12:37:04 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,107
Location: Nairobi
hisah wrote:
I don't envy citibank as the underwriter with the share price currently on a nosedive ready to dip below 14. If the rights are under-subscribed heavily (most likely esp wanjikus) it won't be funny. At this point PPT should be stick saving the price plunge. This is quite an interesting scenario for the KQ rights. I can't recall a share that dipped below the rights price before on NSE - @vvs, @mukiha, @njunge - anyone recall this...
Kijana, this happened when I was a young man to EABL so Diageo bought the Rights the Kenyans did not. Of course, EABL has returned 10x to Diageo since the 'failed' Rights Issue. I did not exercise my Rights but I was lucky I bought them from the market [at a discount to the Rights price]. One of my best performers over the years. Then I unwisely sold out ;-( too early!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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chaimani
#125 Posted : Thursday, March 22, 2012 6:22:08 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 25
Location: moscow na muranga
mwekez@ji wrote:
chaimani wrote:
...wait in june the price might be 6 bob or below due to dilution


Shame on you Shame on you Shame on you

Do you know what is dilution?

Dilution cannot lead to the price falling below KES 15.10

This is how you calculate the "diluted share price":

Price just before the rights issue news; 18.6 (and it could have absorbed some of rights news because the share fell from 50+ partly because of the rights issue expectations)


{(16*14)+(5*18.6)}/(16+5) = 15.10


Your arithmetics are not working share close @14.25 yesterday far below your mathematics. I may not know exactly how dilution is calculated but would wish u to calculate the share price when the new shares will be trading in June.I will trust your calculationsSad Sad
chasing after the wind
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jerry
#126 Posted : Thursday, March 22, 2012 7:27:59 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/29/2006
Posts: 2,570
mkeiy wrote:
jerry wrote:
Should they stop the rights altogether and cite non-approval by UG&TZ?smile


Do the capital market authorities in UG and TZ have to approve? I've never thought of it.

Just my 2cents. Let's see if we can get it below 14 2day.
The opposite of courage is not cowardice, it's conformity.
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sparkly
#127 Posted : Thursday, March 22, 2012 7:59:05 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
hisah wrote:
I don't envy citibank as the underwriter with the share price currently on a nosedive ready to dip below 14. If the rights are under-subscribed heavily (most likely esp wanjikus) it won't be funny. At this point PPT should be stick saving the price plunge. This is quite an interesting scenario for the KQ rights. I can't recall a share that dipped below the rights price before on NSE - @vvs, @mukiha, @njunge - anyone recall this...
Kijana, this happened when I was a young man to EABL so Diageo bought the Rights the Kenyans did not. Of course, EABL has returned 10x to Diageo since the 'failed' Rights Issue. I did not exercise my Rights but I was lucky I bought them from the market [at a discount to the Rights price].

@VVS a likely scenario might play out. Air France KLM might take the opportunity to increase their holding. Me thinks the other international might shy away because of the EuroZone crisis. Either way we will have a rights issue.
Life is short. Live passionately.
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mwekez@ji
#128 Posted : Thursday, March 22, 2012 8:31:00 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
chaimani wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
chaimani wrote:
...wait in june the price might be 6 bob or below due to dilution


Shame on you Shame on you Shame on you

Do you know what is dilution?

Dilution cannot lead to the price falling below KES 15.10

This is how you calculate the "diluted share price":

Price just before the rights issue news; 18.6 (and it could have absorbed some of rights news because the share fell from 50+ partly because of the rights issue expectations)


{(16*14)+(5*18.6)}/(16+5) = 15.10


Your arithmetics are not working share close @14.25 yesterday far below your mathematics. I may not know exactly how dilution is calculated but would wish u to calculate the share price when the new shares will be trading in June.I will trust your calculationsSad Sad


@chaimani, lemmi help by pointing the following to you:

1. The diluted share price will not change from 15.10 in June, July, Aug, ...

2. Take your time to understand what is dilution

3. Take your time to understand the other factors that are driving the share price to levels below the diluted share price

4. Read @the deal advice in post 118 and take heed if you intend to play this counter
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Cde Monomotapa
#129 Posted : Thursday, March 22, 2012 9:02:51 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
SMH kampuni ya ma genius.
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mwekez@ji
#130 Posted : Thursday, March 22, 2012 9:23:20 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
guru267 wrote:
Citibank must be now PRAYING for an oversubscription so that they only have to take their underwriting fees and bounce...


Looks like they will just have to take the underwriting fees, undersubscription and then wait to make good returns from the holding if KQ proves itself
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#131 Posted : Thursday, March 22, 2012 10:11:23 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,220
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
jerry wrote:
mkeiy wrote:
jerry wrote:
Should they stop the rights altogether and cite non-approval by UG&TZ?smile


Do the capital market authorities in UG and TZ have to approve? I've never thought of it.

Just my 2cents. Let's see if we can get it below 14 2day.

Already there and not funny!Where's the Plunge Protection Team aka PPT?
@SufficientlyP
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VituVingiSana
#132 Posted : Thursday, March 22, 2012 10:34:22 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,107
Location: Nairobi
If I had the cash... I would buy up all of KQ [assume at 14/-]... stop the crazy expansion, fire most of the management, cut costs, sell assets [leaseback], sweat the equity and prepare to sell off the business to the highest bidder!

I am glad I switched (a huge chunk of my portfolio) to KK which expands judiciously, uses debt & has never asked me for Rights cash, sweats the equity, management has shares/options...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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2012
#133 Posted : Thursday, March 22, 2012 10:40:25 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
I just don't get this one. Why would anyone participate in rights that dilute the stock by such a high percentage while you could wait for it at 10bob or less after the rights? I wonder what the advisors for this rights were thinking. Kq is lucky Gova and KLM are taking up the rights otherwise this is a total mess.

On another note I think the Government should be condemned for announcing that they were going to take up the rights before the price was set. This means the taxpayer can be exploited through the price they set.

BBI will solve it :)
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hisah
#134 Posted : Thursday, March 22, 2012 10:49:22 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
jerry wrote:
mkeiy wrote:
jerry wrote:
Should they stop the rights altogether and cite non-approval by UG&TZ?smile


Do the capital market authorities in UG and TZ have to approve? I've never thought of it.

Just my 2cents. Let's see if we can get it below 14 2day.

Already there and not funny!Where's the Plunge Protection Team aka PPT?

I'm equally puzzled that PPT is not interested in stemming the plunge... d'oh!
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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bartum
#135 Posted : Thursday, March 22, 2012 1:29:49 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/11/2010
Posts: 1,011
Location: nairobi
once bought at 59.50 and salt at 50,and moved forward.iam now watching from a far.ulcers central are this airline stock
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platinum seeker
#136 Posted : Thursday, March 22, 2012 2:31:12 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 10/22/2010
Posts: 35
Location: Nairobi
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hisah
#137 Posted : Thursday, March 22, 2012 3:30:54 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
[quote=platinum seeker]and it gets worse....
http://www.bloomberg.com...il-in-fuel-squeeze.html[/quote]

You mean the industry is now admitting that they will fail due to high oil prices. I thought the global econ masters were happy with high oil prices since it's a statement that the global econ is on a sweet spot of a recovery.
Hmmm... So in 2008 we have financials going bust and in 2012 we have no flights available. Is this bullish to canoe business or what...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Aguytrying
#138 Posted : Thursday, March 22, 2012 3:56:15 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
[quote=platinum seeker]and it gets worse....
http://www.bloomberg.com...il-in-fuel-squeeze.html[/quote]

This is the kind of ceo KQ needs. Naikuni is a waster. How can he own so little
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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hisah
#139 Posted : Thursday, March 22, 2012 3:59:09 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
And now more on KQ from BD...

http://www.businessdaily...4/-/53x688z/-/index.html
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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chaimani
#140 Posted : Thursday, March 22, 2012 7:34:37 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 25
Location: moscow na muranga
the deal wrote:
Talking is a waste of time, what you should be doing is looking for an entry point...they're not raising cash to eat...they're raising cash to buy assets.


How do we get information if you what us to be quite?Not talking Not talking Not talking
chasing after the wind
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