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Could Safaricom issue a profit warning?
selah
#121 Posted : Thursday, February 24, 2011 12:03:01 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/13/2009
Posts: 1,950
Location: in kenya
chemos wrote:
Airtel are waiting to unleash another war at 50cts per minute after the expiry of feelanga free.... Now this will be the real test on safcom because they cant afford to remain on 3 bob and yet again if they reduce to even 2 bob the infrastructure will be in ICU... its a double edge sword for them.


Even if it charged 50cts which Yu and Orange have tried charging some time back or the 10/= per day tarriff they are currently running,they will not achieve the level of loyalty safaricom enjoys...they will attract customers to their network but When another network offers lower prices they will migrate.
'......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
chemos
#122 Posted : Thursday, February 24, 2011 12:07:18 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 11/28/2006
Posts: 1,799
VituVingiSana wrote:
chemos wrote:
Airtel are waiting to unleash another war at 50cts per minute after the expiry of feelanga free.... Now this will be the real test on safcom because they cant afford to remain on 3 bob and yet again if they reduce to even 2 bob the infrastructure will be in ICU... its a double edge sword for them.
The marginal cost of minutes WITHIN the network must be very low e.g. 25 cents/minute. So for Airtel, they can keep 3/- across networks but still make money as long as you call WITHIN the network.



But there is the ripple effect of loosing subs to airtel. You can only do so much to lock in subs. with 50cts who in their right minds would not want to be on airtel... hata kama damu yako ni green kweli utakaa ukiona wengine wakipiga at 50 cts..
Safcom at the moment are fighting to try and retain as much subs within the network and to do this they have to appease them by lowering the rates but at the same time the infrastructure is really getting a beating as it is and if airtel were to go for this killer punch then safcom would have a hard time trying to support calls at sub 2 bob..

look at it this way. at 2 bob or below traffic will almost double at safaricom without adding any capacity and thus cause so much issues.. how long will subs keep up with a congested network.. am sure they will gladly move to airtel where they will get more for less
My 2 cents
#123 Posted : Thursday, February 24, 2011 12:09:22 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 6/2/2010
Posts: 1,075
Dunno when Airtel will realise that 'price' is not the only variable. They could make it completely free and it still would not be that easy to steal safcom's customers.............
VituVingiSana
#124 Posted : Thursday, February 24, 2011 12:19:45 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,215
Location: Nairobi
Apparently the on-net SMS that Safaricom charged 3.50 [for a long time] costs them less than 10cents!!! So when Airtel came in with 1/- [off-net] SMS, it caused a stir...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
selah
#125 Posted : Thursday, February 24, 2011 12:31:44 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/13/2009
Posts: 1,950
Location: in kenya
@chemos your argument would holdwater if the 50cts offer is across networks but if onnet calls the migration will not be as high as you want us to believe...I know of some pple who depend on safaricom not on the voice but MPesa and its easy functionality just like Nokia which enjoys a monopolistic following here in kenya even though we have cheaper and better phones.
'......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
chemos
#126 Posted : Thursday, February 24, 2011 12:43:19 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 11/28/2006
Posts: 1,799
selah wrote:
@chemos your argument would holdwater if the 50cts offer is across networks but if onnet calls the migration will not be as high as you want us to believe...I know of some pple who depend on safaricom not on the voice but MPesa and its easy functionality just like Nokia which enjoys a monopolistic following here in kenya even though we have cheaper and better phones.



Bulk of safcom calls are on-net. so def on net calls would double. Ok the mass migration might or might not be massive that for sure no one knows with a certainity unless you are Karumanzila.
My point is Safcom cannot sit and wait to see their subs moving to airtel. But the problem is if they lower their call rates further down the infrastructure will start to cramble.
The capacity they are going to carry is what was projected for them to carry in 2012 at previous rates and after doing all major expansions.

VituVingiSana
#127 Posted : Thursday, February 24, 2011 12:44:41 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,215
Location: Nairobi
selah wrote:
@chemos your argument would holdwater if the 50cts offer is across networks but if onnet calls the migration will not be as high as you want us to believe...I know of some pple who depend on safaricom not on the voice but MPesa and its easy functionality just like Nokia which enjoys a monopolistic following here in kenya even though we have cheaper and better phones.
M-Pesa is sticky [definitely a growth driver for Safaricom] but most (spending) Kenyans are multi-SIM folks!

Bottomline: Will the low on-net & off-net prices by Airtel [YU + Orange] affect Safaricom profits? Yes... Not in 2010 but in 2011

As for Kenya's economy... We will benefit from lower calling costs!

Kenyans buy foreign assembled [instead of Mecer] computers without blinking an eyelid... yet complain about the non-existent threat of 'loss' of jobs!

Airtel's expansion will bring higher-enf ENGINEERING jobs for Kenyans!

Airtel Africa HQ will be Nairobi. Jobs for construction folks + high-end jobs for developers & engineers!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Jamani
#128 Posted : Thursday, February 24, 2011 1:23:19 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/12/2006
Posts: 1,554
@VVS i agree you on most but differ on these

As for Kenya's economy... We will benefit from lower calling costs! This will affect technological advancement hence shortlived

Airtel's expansion will bring higher-enf ENGINEERING jobs for Kenyans! false, planning for airtel and engineering is centralised in india their model is only touch services are required on site(watu wa mkono)

Airtel Africa HQ will be Nairobi. Jobs for construction folks + high-end jobs for developers & engineers! True for HQ its in Kenya already false for highend jobs i challenge you to walk into their HQ currently on 2nd floor at parkside towers and you will see mumbai or infact kerela for yourself(black indias)
VituVingiSana
#129 Posted : Thursday, February 24, 2011 1:29:22 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,215
Location: Nairobi
@jamani - BTW, the networks in Kenya for safaricom are being built out by the chinese [Huawei & ZTE]!
At least Airtel uses Nokia/Siemens who have a good number of (young) Kenyans. I know a chap who works for Nokia.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Jamani
#130 Posted : Thursday, February 24, 2011 1:40:44 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/12/2006
Posts: 1,554
VituVingiSana wrote:
@jamani - BTW, the networks in Kenya for safaricom are being built out by the chinese [Huawei & ZTE]!
At least Airtel uses Nokia/Siemens who have a good number of (young) Kenyans. I know a chap who works for Nokia.


NO VVS, the network has many different nodes, and Huaweii are supplying some nodes to safcom, infact siemens was the single supply of nodes to safcom before they opted out due to IN or switch issues sometime back. They now will start using alcatel also for LTE. so what am saying is the network has different nodes and depending on specs and cost operators choose the best.

As for Airtel, they had a single supplier in alcatel, thats when their network was supper, then they went into Ericsson and issues started today they use both Ericsson and Alcatel on the core its Ericsson on the BSS its multivendor.
And for information all the vendors have shop in nairobi and young Kenyas employed in them.
kenyarevolution
#131 Posted : Thursday, February 24, 2011 1:49:42 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 7/2/2010
Posts: 4
Location: nairobi
VVS Airtel survive by cutting cost, how is a company that uses that as a survival tactic create Jobs?

In india this company outbid its rival to offer telecommunication services to rural areas by offering to pay the govt for the tender even when the government had given subsidies for interested companies.Airtel waived those subsidies and offered to pay so as to out bid the others.Now few months down the line Airtel writes to the Govt requesting to exit the areas it bid for, claiming the area was growing at a very slow rate,but the govt has refused to grant them their request.
Jamani
#132 Posted : Thursday, February 24, 2011 1:53:04 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/12/2006
Posts: 1,554
kenyarevolution wrote:
VVS Airtel survive by cutting cost, how is a company that uses that as a survival tactic create Jobs?

In india this company outbid its rival to offer telecommunication services to rural areas by offering to pay the govt for the tender even when the government had given subsidies for interested companies.Airtel waived those subsidies and offered to pay so as to out bid the others.Now few months down the line Airtel writes to the Govt requesting to exit the areas it bid for, claiming the area was growing at a very slow rate,but the govt has refused to grant them their request.


News from Mahabarat above... you now have an idea of what might happen to our situation in the near future
VituVingiSana
#133 Posted : Thursday, February 24, 2011 2:21:17 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,215
Location: Nairobi
Jamani wrote:
kenyarevolution wrote:
VVS Airtel survive by cutting cost, how is a company that uses that as a survival tactic create Jobs?

In india this company outbid its rival to offer telecommunication services to rural areas by offering to pay the govt for the tender even when the government had given subsidies for interested companies.Airtel waived those subsidies and offered to pay so as to out bid the others.Now few months down the line Airtel writes to the Govt requesting to exit the areas it bid for, claiming the area was growing at a very slow rate,but the govt has refused to grant them their request.

News from Mahabarat above... you now have an idea of what might happen to our situation in the near future
No problem. The govt of India should stand fast & REFUSE the request! Same thing in Kenya, if you enter into a contract/agreement & you fail to fulfill it then you pay the price!

BTW, in Kenya [I have no idea about India] we have a Universal Service Fee [0.5% - 1% of Revenues] which will [hopefully] be used to build infrastructure in rural or underserved areas.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Jamani
#134 Posted : Thursday, February 24, 2011 2:26:32 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/12/2006
Posts: 1,554
VituVingiSana wrote:
Jamani wrote:
kenyarevolution wrote:
VVS Airtel survive by cutting cost, how is a company that uses that as a survival tactic create Jobs?

In india this company outbid its rival to offer telecommunication services to rural areas by offering to pay the govt for the tender even when the government had given subsidies for interested companies.Airtel waived those subsidies and offered to pay so as to out bid the others.Now few months down the line Airtel writes to the Govt requesting to exit the areas it bid for, claiming the area was growing at a very slow rate,but the govt has refused to grant them their request.

News from Mahabarat above... you now have an idea of what might happen to our situation in the near future
No problem. The govt of India should stand fast & REFUSE the request! Same thing in Kenya, if you enter into a contract/agreement & you fail to fulfill it then you pay the price! hahaha Kenya its the pocket that talks TKK

VituVingiSana
#135 Posted : Thursday, February 24, 2011 2:31:21 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,215
Location: Nairobi
Jamani wrote:
Same thing in Kenya, if you enter into a contract/agreement & you fail to fulfill it then you pay the price! hahaha Kenya its the pocket that talks TKK

Then it is a structural/institutional problem... Protecting Safaricom [or Orange] will not solve that problem...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Jamani
#136 Posted : Thursday, February 24, 2011 2:59:19 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/12/2006
Posts: 1,554
VituVingiSana wrote:
Jamani wrote:
Same thing in Kenya, if you enter into a contract/agreement & you fail to fulfill it then you pay the price! hahaha Kenya its the pocket that talks TKK

Then it is a structural/institutional problem... Protecting Safaricom [or Orange] will not solve that problem...


True that neither will undercutting the market do it. Fair pricing will make our economy grow and technology advance, with cheap pricing we shall save coins in pockets but slow down on growth due to backward technology.
By the way are you aware that some operators in Kenya are buying mtumba equipment thats being phased out in other markets.....yes its happenning
VituVingiSana
#137 Posted : Thursday, February 24, 2011 3:06:50 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,215
Location: Nairobi
Jamani wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Jamani wrote:
Same thing in Kenya, if you enter into a contract/agreement & you fail to fulfill it then you pay the price! hahaha Kenya its the pocket that talks TKK

Then it is a structural/institutional problem... Protecting Safaricom [or Orange] will not solve that problem...


True that neither will undercutting the market do it. Fair pricing will make our economy grow and technology advance, with cheap pricing we shall save coins in pockets but slow down on growth due to backward technology.
By the way are you aware that some operators in Kenya are buying mtumba equipment thats being phased out in other markets.....yes its happenning
That is OK. If we can get it a fraction of the new stuff, why not? In the rural areas 2G suffices [how many ICT guys are out there?] for basic internet/data needs. Of course, 2G is fine for voice where the traffic is light to moderate.
I buy second-hand (or old) items if I do not need the latest in tech products. As long as it fulfills my needs/requirements at a price I can afford.

BTW, in Kenya... we have mitumba (clothes), cars, machinery, phones, computers, etc!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
selah
#138 Posted : Thursday, February 24, 2011 3:13:26 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/13/2009
Posts: 1,950
Location: in kenya
@VVS did you read this story http://bit.ly/iks6de this change in strategy did not only cost jobs but htose who were asked to reapply were paid Half the salary..Now tell me how is cost cutting good for the industry...obviously these employees who will receive half the pay will be too demoralized to work efficiently and who gets the blunt of low moral...obviously us the customers.
'......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
Jamani
#139 Posted : Thursday, February 24, 2011 3:16:42 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/12/2006
Posts: 1,554
VituVingiSana wrote:
Jamani wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Jamani wrote:
Same thing in Kenya, if you enter into a contract/agreement & you fail to fulfill it then you pay the price! hahaha Kenya its the pocket that talks TKK

Then it is a structural/institutional problem... Protecting Safaricom [or Orange] will not solve that problem...


True that neither will undercutting the market do it. Fair pricing will make our economy grow and technology advance, with cheap pricing we shall save coins in pockets but slow down on growth due to backward technology.
By the way are you aware that some operators in Kenya are buying mtumba equipment thats being phased out in other markets.....yes its happenning
That is OK. If we can get it a fraction of the new stuff, why not? In the rural areas 2G suffices [how many ICT guys are out there?] for basic internet/data needs. Of course, 2G is fine for voice where the traffic is light to moderate.
I buy second-hand (or old) items if I do not need the latest in tech products. As long as it fulfills my needs/requirements at a price I can afford.

BTW, in Kenya... we have mitumba (clothes), cars, machinery, phones, computers, etc!


You missed the point... IT technology my dear advances very fast, its not like buying mtumba cloths, since mtumba clothes are still in fashion by the time they reach kenya... and those second nodes/equipment bought are not for rural areas as you mention above but installed in urban areas. yaani these cheap things are turning us backwards
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