watesh wrote:MadDoc wrote:sparkly wrote:MadDoc wrote:guru267 wrote:MadDoc wrote:Is power imports from Ethiopia a viable idea? Considering, Ethiopia and the northern part of Kenya are relatively unstable. The infrastructure isn't fully developed too.
To sum it all up, would we risk importing CHEAP power through unstable underdeveloped regions?
This has nothing really to do with Kengen..
Doesn't Kengen sell power to KPLC?
Doesn't importing cheap hydro power hurt Kengen growth prospects?
I'm looking at the viability of importing cheap power from Ethiopia. That's all.
Kengen will be exporting power in 5 years.
The Grand Renaissance dam is due for completion next year. N it has a capacity of 6000mw. Even if the dam takes 7 years to fill, Ketraco is building high voltage transmission lines to Ethiopia.
Ethiopia,s threat can't be underestimated.
In 10 years, Kengen may be laden with debts.
I was for Kengen but the future doesn't look rosy
But 6000MW is such a small amount of power assuming it will run at full capacity...Egypt alone needs over 30,000MW of power, so if Ethiopia is to get to that level and try to take over a bunch of industries from China that power wont be enough. Ethiopia has a huge population (100m+) with current demand of electricity sitting at 2300MW with just less than 30% electricity penetration. Another thing is that dam is already causing conflict with Egypt cause of water shortages, the main life line for Egypt.
Kengen still has a strong future since Kenya Power will buy all the power and send it to Tanzania or Uganda. New high voltage line to Tanzania is being planned to be constructed. If Tz wont be a**holes at any point, its a win for Kengen.
FOCUS!!!
Stick to the low-hanging fruit.
1) It's highly unlikely that Ethiopia can in the medium-term get to Egypt's level of manufacturing. Plenty of "excess" to export.
2) Ethiopia has the Gibe Dam(s) which could supply Kenya.
3) No-one gives a crap about the outdated Nile Treaty that favors Egypt. They can't invade Ethiopia. Let them try. Heck, even UG is building dams on the White Nile. Even Kenya wants to exploit the rivers feeding into L. Victoria.
4) The Egyptians need to practice family planning - China style.
5) UG will be self-sufficient in the medium (5-yr) term with new dams coming online.
6) TZ can also be self-sufficient in the medium (10 years) term with new LNG plants. Plus they have some good hydro potential.
KenGen's primary market remains KENYA. Exports for KenGen will not be a huge % of their sales.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett