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Realities of Forex Investment
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hisah
#1221 Posted : Wednesday, August 17, 2011 12:10:15 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
For those interested with carry trade, you can use this simple calculator to see the best interest paying crosses when shorting or buying. At the moment carry trade is tricky with all the volatility since trades tend to be stopped out the same day or 3 days at most. Once Mr. Market decides if we are rallying or selling off for months, then carry trades can be initiated with ease.

http://www.forexpros.com.../carry-trade-calculator

Also another useful tool called heatmap...

http://www.forexpros.com/forex-tools/heatmap
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#1222 Posted : Wednesday, August 17, 2011 4:01:00 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Buy the rumour, sell the news... The swissie news - http://www.bloomberg.com...-of-bank-liquidity.html

Time for swissie bulls to have another run-in with the SNB... The streetfight continues... Pray Whistle
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#1223 Posted : Thursday, August 18, 2011 8:07:02 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
hisah wrote:
Return to my interest view...

EURCAD - Almost back to 1.43
USDSGD - Testing 1.19s

Waiting for USDZAR to come back to 6.7 - 6.8

AUDCAD - Forming H&S on longterm charts. A test & failure of 1.03 will confirm. If triggered, will fall hard. I'm still an aussie bear & RBA dovish speech last week supports it.

On the next CHF charge look at AUDCHF, should fall faster than GBPCHF?!

EURUSD - The ugly sisters pair is back above 1.44s smile No comment smile

Gold looks like it wants to retest last weeks high @ $1815. May break above, but very toppish. No need to chase trades. Back under $1700 is better for a run above $2000.

In the meantime look at the narrowing USDJPY bollinger bands. A breakout is coming soon.



2 days later, gold has retested and posted a new high $1827. I still see this as a very toppish sign and those buying at this levels are taking major risks - short term.

US 10yr note will soon go sub 2%. A kaboom moment soon...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#1224 Posted : Friday, August 19, 2011 7:32:22 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
US 10yr note yield finally falls sub 2% - new lows...

Gold continues with highs in asia testing $1845 i.e. $155 away from $2000.

SNB dipped into US Fed bank FX swaps of $200M yesterday. Dexia bank (Belgium) took out $500M of last resort borrowing. The liquidity ground is shaky and wild moves in equities & fx will be experienced soon when swaps turn into the billions.

A number of global brokerage firms & lame stream media are talking of US sliding back into recession & taking the rest of the globe with it. As if we got out of recession as some officials claimed back in Nov 2009 with words like v-shaped recovery etc. Bure kabisa.

Stagflation is what we'll get for extending & pretending the ponzinomics.

http://www.dailyfx.com/f...ry_yield_record_low.html
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#1225 Posted : Friday, August 19, 2011 6:08:11 PM
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Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
USDJPY tests below 76 down to 75.95 and bounces back. Floodgates coming soon...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Dmitry
#1226 Posted : Saturday, August 20, 2011 6:11:20 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 8/12/2010
Posts: 51
Location: Nairobi
Hi there. I have been on a demo account for some time and am indifferent on whether am ready or not. i started with some little info...went live n got BURNTsmile so i went back, read a lot, studied n stared at charts, tried different strategies n now i have one that works most of the time. for example, i had 9/10 success rate last week..an many other times. But my question is, how do you know when you are ready or do i just trust my guts?..also i know emotions are very different when one goes live. i would not want to take high risk positions..is 25X very risky? coz am thinking 10X min and 25X max (leverage).
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Mainat
#1227 Posted : Saturday, August 20, 2011 6:54:35 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,590
Banks showing the usual signs of liquidity stress. West has copied Japanese methods instead of having a proper de-leveraging session, they'll wake up with Japanese type of slumber...
Sehemu ndio nyumba
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Ceinz
#1228 Posted : Sunday, August 21, 2011 12:14:55 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/7/2009
Posts: 1,032
Location: Sea of Transquility
NFA Slaps a $2 Million Fine on FXCM

http://www.babypips.com/blogs/e...on-usd-fine-on-fxcm.html
“small step for man”
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QW25071985
#1229 Posted : Sunday, August 21, 2011 2:07:16 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/25/2011
Posts: 946
Ceinz wrote:
NFA Slaps a $2 Million Fine on FXCM

http://www.babypips.com/blogs/e...on-usd-fine-on-fxcm.html


finally.
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hisah
#1230 Posted : Sunday, August 21, 2011 3:57:04 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
QW25071985 wrote:
Ceinz wrote:
NFA Slaps a $2 Million Fine on FXCM

http://www.babypips.com/blogs/e...on-usd-fine-on-fxcm.html


finally.

This is just a slap on the wrist for FXCM. Their US outfit was just a mess with slippages that if you were a frequent trade. On MT the slippages were worse! Somehow this got fixed when I moved my account to the UK branch. Btw this slippage practice (esp during volatility periods) is also evident on other brokers' platforms and I wonder why only FXCM is charged.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#1231 Posted : Monday, August 22, 2011 7:10:46 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Gold just keeps on defying gravity laws even as all timeframes - daily, weekly & monthly indicators are horribly overstretched & the parabolic is almost vertical?! This reminds me of oil price run up in 2008. This won't end well...

Update - 13hrs later, Gold futures hit $1899... Something fishy is cooking & with fx almost static today, get ready for serious volatility this week...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#1232 Posted : Tuesday, August 23, 2011 7:00:24 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Euro bulls... http://www.spiegel.de/in...781590,00.html#ref=nlint
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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the deal
#1233 Posted : Tuesday, August 23, 2011 4:59:09 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Hey you forex expert...LoL...on my practise account I took 100000 units of USD/ZAR at 6.199...within hours I was able to sale at 7.235 and made $570...now I have entered another trade EUR/USD at 1.44...
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hisah
#1234 Posted : Wednesday, August 24, 2011 5:35:33 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
hisah wrote:
USDJPY tests below 76 down to 75.95 and bounces back. Floodgates coming soon...

Moody's downgrades Japan, but USDJPY cross unmoved. After S&P's US shocker, it'll take a while for investors to get spooked. Too much bad news already to make things worse.

Gold topped $1913 yesterday & has got hammered big. I still insist a major (a few months) top in forming even if it breaks $2000. Those overstretched techs look like crude oil's back in July 2008. A correction back to $1600 - 1700 is on the cards.

$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Cde Monomotapa
#1235 Posted : Wednesday, August 24, 2011 6:58:53 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Applause
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hisah
#1236 Posted : Wednesday, August 24, 2011 10:56:03 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Indeed, gold falls the most since 2008. Almost $200 down within 24hrs!?

I might just be tempted to short some even as an ardent gold bull???

If it falls very hard in coming months, S. Korea's CB entry zone $1400 should arrest the selling pressure.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#1237 Posted : Thursday, August 25, 2011 7:40:47 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
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And the gold rout continues. Down almost 5% in asia session. Parabolics retrace like a sky dive...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#1238 Posted : Friday, August 26, 2011 7:37:50 AM
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Gold got hammered while USDJPY is getting pimped up.
From next week we will know the tape's direction, but I see a dollar rally across board.
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hisah
#1239 Posted : Sunday, August 28, 2011 4:56:34 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
During all the panic drama it is interesting the EURUSD has not lost 1.40 handle while most of the commodo ccys dropped.

Gold & CHF have seen spectacular rallies during panic central & stocks have nosedived as expected.

There something interesting in the euro static range 1.40 - 1.45, a triangle is forming. Same thing on the USD index. Break outs coming soon with USD index looking bullish. Now for Bernanke to maintain his printing fantasy (QE3) that USD index cannot be allowed to have a bullish breakout.

The USDSGD & USDZAR crosses are also hinting dollar strength coming soon. With euroland debt issues still stuck, the money printing spree timeframe is running out...

In contrast there is a chance that CHF carry trades are now forming.
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Ceinz
#1240 Posted : Sunday, August 28, 2011 5:50:08 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/7/2009
Posts: 1,032
Location: Sea of Transquility
hisah wrote:
During all the panic drama it is interesting the EURUSD has not lost 1.40 handle while most of the commodo ccys dropped.

Gold & CHF have seen spectacular rallies during panic central & stocks have nosedived as expected.

There something interesting in the euro static range 1.40 - 1.45, a triangle is forming. Same thing on the USD index. Break outs coming soon with USD index looking bullish. Now for Bernanke to maintain his printing fantasy (QE3) that USD index cannot be allowed to have a bullish breakout.

The USDSGD & USDZAR crosses are also hinting dollar strength coming soon. With euroland debt issues still stuck, the money printing spree timeframe is running out...

In contrast there is a chance that CHF carry trades are now forming.


My good friend tells me there was a big Eur/usd order on friday, I dont know how he gets the feeds. This must have propped the Eur. Im of the view that this pair is headed south this week. Should this be the case Eur/ gbp will be a good short candidate since at it high levels.
“small step for man”
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