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The KenolKobil 2015 pendulum
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ecstacy
#611 Posted : Saturday, March 19, 2016 11:36:59 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2008
Posts: 4,449
@Kausha, @VVS, @hisah, @Aguy, @mlennyma:

Would you bet your house on KK hitting Ksh 18/= by March 2017?
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Aguytrying
#612 Posted : Saturday, March 19, 2016 12:05:55 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
Aguytrying wrote:
MaichBlack wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
@AGuy @Kausha ... A bit early in the year but is 3bn feasible for 2016?

Most definitely @VVS. I don't expect anything less!!!


It depends alot on if the capital gains from the TZ, Congo sales were booked through profit and loss, and how much.

I can't believe this is kk doing 2.5bn pat. I can't. Unbelievable performance! H1 will show the way. Long story short, I feel well consolidate around 2.5 bn in 2016 as well


After combing through the statements again. One thing made me smile about 2015 and 2016. 21 retail stations were added in 2015. There is rebuilding and renovation of some existing retail stations with the aim to increase fuel sales and non fuel sales.

This what we've been saying since 2012, when we had those aggressive K card deals and KK was the place to fuel and was the market leader in fuel sales. This re-focus on retail is what will drive our sales and profits going forward. Its what total and shell have that we lack at the moment. Im excited by these prospects going forward.

With that 2016 i think we can hit 2.5bn PAT and the hailed 3.0bn in 2017. Im ready to be pleasantly surprised though
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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mlennyma
#613 Posted : Saturday, March 19, 2016 12:08:59 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
ecstacy wrote:
@Kausha, @VVS, @hisah, @Aguy, @mlennyma:

Would you bet your house on KK hitting Ksh 18/= by March 2017?

My take...there are so many pending issues which can make it hit 18 before H1 2016,eg..refunds from govt to oil marketers,kenya pipeline case,partnership, good income from the 10year castrol products marketing in east and central africa,and most important the optimism by those who own the shares as of now,a share gains because of its scarcity when on demandsmile
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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  | | Edit by user: Saturday, March 19, 2016 12:10 PM | Reason: Not specified
VituVingiSana
#614 Posted : Saturday, March 19, 2016 2:41:55 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,354
Location: Nairobi
ecstacy wrote:
@Kausha, @VVS, @hisah, @Aguy, @mlennyma:

Would you bet your house on KK hitting Ksh 18/= by March 2017?

April 2018 ceteris paribus i.e. similar conditions & no PEV 2017.
[My 18/- also includes dividends of 0.25 (Final FY 2015 pd in 2016) + 0.50 (pd for FY 2016 in 2017) and 0.15 (interim FY 2017).
If the NSE offered single stock call options, I would pick up more than a few.

The analyst briefing report was nothing if not positive.
- Focus on PROFITABLE sales not market share.
- K-Card agreement with DTB is more efficient.
- Young country managers.
- Hiring expansion to push non-fuel products.
- Renovation of stations.
- Acquisition/takeover of stations.
- All subsidiaries are profitable in 2016 to-date
- Debt down to 2.3bn and all in USD. And dropping.
- Real estate is not the focus but KK will develop other income sources.
- LPG refilling/storage facility in Kisumu.
- 200,000 LPG cylinders coming in 2016.
- Expansion into new countries is on the cards but not the primary focus.
- Burundi remains profitable despite the political problems.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Aguytrying
#615 Posted : Saturday, March 19, 2016 2:54:25 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
mlennyma wrote:
ecstacy wrote:
@Kausha, @VVS, @hisah, @Aguy, @mlennyma:

Would you bet your house on KK hitting Ksh 18/= by March 2017?

My take...there are so many pending issues which can make it hit 18 before H1 2016,eg..refunds from govt to oil marketers,kenya pipeline case,partnership, good income from the 10year castrol products marketing in east and central africa,and most important the optimism by those who own the shares as of now,a share gains because of its scarcity when on demandsmile


Elder. Has Realtreaty infected you with hopium. 18 in 2016! I think towards end of 2017 it can hit 18-20.

Let's judge with H1 2016 performance
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Aguytrying
#616 Posted : Saturday, March 19, 2016 3:01:07 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
VituVingiSana wrote:
ecstacy wrote:
@Kausha, @VVS, @hisah, @Aguy, @mlennyma:

Would you bet your house on KK hitting Ksh 18/= by March 2017?

April 2018 ceteris paribus i.e. similar conditions & no PEV 2017.
[My 18/- also includes dividends of 0.25 (Final FY 2015 pd in 2016) + 0.50 (pd for FY 2016 in 2017) and 0.15 (interim FY 2017).
If the NSE offered single stock call options, I would pick up more than a few.

The analyst briefing report was nothing if not positive.
- Focus on PROFITABLE sales not market share.
- K-Card agreement with DTB is more efficient.
- Young country managers.
- Hiring expansion to push non-fuel products.
- Renovation of stations.
- Acquisition/takeover of stations.
- All subsidiaries are profitable in 2016 to-date
- Debt down to 2.3bn and all in USD. And dropping.
- Real estate is not the focus but KK will develop other income sources.
- LPG refilling/storage facility in Kisumu.
- 200,000 LPG cylinders coming in 2016.
- Expansion into new countries is on the cards but not the primary focus.
- Burundi remains profitable despite the political problems.


The remaining 2.3bn debt. Is that including the 1.6bn TZ,Congo proceeds?

Where can I get that investor briefing.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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mlennyma
#617 Posted : Saturday, March 19, 2016 3:35:13 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
Aguytrying wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
ecstacy wrote:
@Kausha, @VVS, @hisah, @Aguy, @mlennyma:

Would you bet your house on KK hitting Ksh 18/= by March 2017?

April 2018 ceteris paribus i.e. similar conditions & no PEV 2017.
[My 18/- also includes dividends of 0.25 (Final FY 2015 pd in 2016) + 0.50 (pd for FY 2016 in 2017) and 0.15 (interim FY 2017).
If the NSE offered single stock call options, I would pick up more than a few.

The analyst briefing report was nothing if not positive.
- Focus on PROFITABLE sales not market share.
- K-Card agreement with DTB is more efficient.
- Young country managers.
- Hiring expansion to push non-fuel products.
- Renovation of stations.
- Acquisition/takeover of stations.
- All subsidiaries are profitable in 2016 to-date
- Debt down to 2.3bn and all in USD. And dropping.
- Real estate is not the focus but KK will develop other income sources.
- LPG refilling/storage facility in Kisumu.
- 200,000 LPG cylinders coming in 2016.
- Expansion into new countries is on the cards but not the primary focus.
- Burundi remains profitable despite the political problems.


The remaining 2.3bn debt. Is that including the 1.6bn TZ,Congo proceeds?

Where can I get that investor briefing.

the kenol kobil which made a profit of 6billion in 2009 and 7.7billion in 2010 before the mess is the same company today ,if today you hear the case with kpc has been concluded and kk awarded 3 billion hell will break loose,but lets not rely on this,we are now profitable
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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  | | Edit by user: Saturday, March 19, 2016 3:38 PM | Reason: Not specified
VituVingiSana
#618 Posted : Saturday, March 19, 2016 6:31:54 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,354
Location: Nairobi
Aguytrying wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
ecstacy wrote:
@Kausha, @VVS, @hisah, @Aguy, @mlennyma:

Would you bet your house on KK hitting Ksh 18/= by March 2017?

April 2018 ceteris paribus i.e. similar conditions & no PEV 2017.
[My 18/- also includes dividends of 0.25 (Final FY 2015 pd in 2016) + 0.50 (pd for FY 2016 in 2017) and 0.15 (interim FY 2017).
If the NSE offered single stock call options, I would pick up more than a few.

The analyst briefing report was nothing if not positive.
- Focus on PROFITABLE sales not market share.
- K-Card agreement with DTB is more efficient.
- Young country managers.
- Hiring expansion to push non-fuel products.
- Renovation of stations.
- Acquisition/takeover of stations.
- All subsidiaries are profitable in 2016 to-date
- Debt down to 2.3bn and all in USD. And dropping.
- Real estate is not the focus but KK will develop other income sources.
- LPG refilling/storage facility in Kisumu.
- 200,000 LPG cylinders coming in 2016.
- Expansion into new countries is on the cards but not the primary focus.
- Burundi remains profitable despite the political problems.


The remaining 2.3bn debt. Is that including the 1.6bn TZ,Congo proceeds?

Where can I get that investor briefing.
The 2.3bn [check @Kausha post] is after the 1.6bn from TZ. I am not sure if it can be paid off by May as DO had said now that Brent prices are back to $41. I think the story now is 'within 2016' vs 3 months from Feb.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Kalameni
#619 Posted : Saturday, March 19, 2016 7:28:30 PM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 9/20/2010
Posts: 80
The future is bright for kk and its esteemed shareholders.84% PAT impressive.Puma energy must be full of regret.
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Realtreaty
#620 Posted : Saturday, March 19, 2016 8:50:51 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 8/16/2011
Posts: 2,387
This is the best time the Govt(KPRL and KPC) to repay KK as oil prices are low and govt do not need hedging. Pay now and escape future headaches.
1. Cash Payment
2. Free tendering
3. Free products/servicesto kk to cover costs and penalties
4. Tax rebates or concessions
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