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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:@hisah..what r ur expectations out of Uncle Ben & The Toners band. QE.3 or non? The probable scenarios both ways? The Bernanke will most probably disappoint today during FOMC. Reason being, the markets are still not bloody enough to force public outcry for QE3.0. Remember in Sept 2008 the world felt like it was ending, we are not there yet! Another 10 - 15% down on global stocks and LIBOR or EURIBOR going bananas will feel like it, then the super speed inkjets will be unleashed in a coordinated global printing spree. For now think of it like they're filling up the toners for tons of printing coming soon.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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fxtech wrote:AUD gaining grouuuund across the board, AUDUSD myt move higher short-term, AUDJPY bullish and EURAUD berish as frm 1.4044 Short term yes, medium to long term, the structure is bearish. The easy money is now on the short side.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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CHF continues its rhino charge... SNB totally outgunned. I can see a white flag for now. But when the interventionist has regained wind, expect the CHF crosses (esp USDCHF, GBPCHF and EURCHF) to rally a massive 500pips in a day! $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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JP Morgue was sold by smart money on July 14... Since July 22 its been a global market tanking paradise. Comprehende... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0aXIE-2BbeA
Coming up next, gold. Yes, that metal will be sold with sizable corrections soon! Closed at market @38.10 the XAG/USD trade taken on June 30th @34.90. $40 level has rejected this thing 4 times now even with panic central. This thing is going down! For now I quit on silver, but I still expect this metal to explode above $50 in the near future. The positioning of COMEX physical silver delivery is quite a concern and in future, the COMEX may default! That will be the day the prices go bananas... https://images.angelpub..../9828/aug-2011-comex.png$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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As FOMC event passes without bringing any party gifts, just sombre trader get well wishes cards, markets equally slide in response. Oh my! CHF bulls! Eh, meant rhinos! What the heavens. Is that EURCHF down almost 700pips??? EURCHF is aiming for parity??? ECB & SNB will have issues with panic central antsy traders. Should EURIBOR spike, things will get very ugly... Euro credit crunch coming up... US 10yr note at 2009 lows - 2.03%. Bond market abt to kaboom...! Update - And as EURCHF was about to take out parity down to 1.0060s, boom it flies to 1.02s - 200pips immediately! Casino royale. This street fight is the bloodiest; 4 weeks & counting. I like good fights. Meanwhile USDJPY now threating with new all time lows aiming sub 76. BOJ vs yen bulls main event coming up next... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Trade update - USDSGD short stopped out @breakeven. The volatility  USDJPY hanging by a shoe string. I can see scope of it hitting the bunkers @70. At that level I'll go long and ride the fireworks. Shorting the fall is profitable, but a yen missile could be sniped by BOJ, killing your account. This is a street fight, so no rules apply!? Today CHF bulls are defensive. The technicals of gold & CHF crosses are horribly broken. Large corrections & rebounds coming up in the next 3 - 6 weeks. Long term trend remains up for gold and down for CHF crosses. AUDUSD & NZDUSD recovering nicely, but no more all time highs. Those are distant barriers. If they retrace 50-78% levels, bears will come out in gangs EURUSD was unaffected by panic central, this is the next candidate on panic central round 2. Global stocks too will rebound, but no more highs for the year. Large rebounds will be sold going forward. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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hisah wrote:
US 10yr note at 2009 lows - 2.03%. Bond market abt to kaboom...!
This 10yr note will spiral out of control soon...
Meanwhile USDJPY is still cliff-hanging for 12hrs now. Very courageous that 76 support, but when it caves in, @70 is the stop!$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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hisah wrote:@Fxtech - very nice trade on NZDUSD - It has fallen very hard from all time highs... Is it about to do an aussie...
This was post 1072... Indeed the kiwi did an aussie in a more dramatic fashion... While aussie did another aussie collapse...$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/31/2010 Posts: 325 Location: NAIROBI
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SHORT AUDUSD @1.0274 SL 1.0305 TP 1.0120 WL be looking to enter LONG CHFJPY FRM 104.20 area. Discipline & sticking to your strategy even when you loosing defines great traders.
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/31/2010 Posts: 325 Location: NAIROBI
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GPBCHF SHORT Opportunity might materialise by 4pm local time. Discipline & sticking to your strategy even when you loosing defines great traders.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Gold getting hammered as per expectations. Though the panic is still present, it had overstretched itself too much. It still has some distance to fall. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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fxtech wrote:GPBCHF SHORT Opportunity might materialise by 4pm local time. CHF getting clobbered. SNB throwing fast punches from the ropes after taking heavy blows. These are the kind of spikes I expect on this CHF crosses that have horrible broken technical oscillations. Down 600pips one day, then up 500pips the next day. If you can't ride such wildness, stay away... This street fight will get ugly as months roll by and is nowhere about done!
CHF is getting hammered on speculative rumours that euro might be pegged on CHF i.e. euro-swiss peg.
Update - If this peg rumour is just that, expect the next plunge to take the EURCHF thru parity! The USDCHF would also break 0.70xx and GBPCHF would test parity too!
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Austria coming soon... Euro bulls be on guard... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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hisah wrote:Gold getting hammered as per expectations. Though the panic is still present, it had overstretched itself too much. It still has some distance to fall. For now gold has topped out @ $1815 and the selloff to $1730s confirms it. Still some distance to fall. For the next 3 - 6 weeks price will be heavy & any rallies will be sold. The technicals are still overstretched & need to reset. I cashed out my last position @1610 as the stampede went bananas. I'm hoping the reverse stampede finds me there.
http://www.youtube.com/w...ture=player_profilepage
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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CHF - stil taking a major beating in asia. EURCHF zooming back to life. Technicals of CHF crosses are still horrible with very ugly candlesticks. No support levels for the rebound. This euro-swiss peg rumour will end very badly in a few weeks! Gold stil on freefall. I hope it gets back to $1600 for the next leg up towards $2000. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 5/7/2009 Posts: 1,032 Location: Sea of Transquility
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hisah wrote:CHF - stil taking a major beating in asia. EURCHF zooming back to life. Technicals of CHF crosses are still horrible with very ugly candlesticks. No support levels for the rebound. This euro-swiss peg rumour will end very badly in a few weeks!
The euro-swiss peg appears to be working for now, however I expect the current levels of USD, EUR and GBP vs CHF to serve as a resistance and possible retracement to occur since they lie at an important fib number. “small step for man”
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Ceinz wrote:hisah wrote:CHF - stil taking a major beating in asia. EURCHF zooming back to life. Technicals of CHF crosses are still horrible with very ugly candlesticks. No support levels for the rebound. This euro-swiss peg rumour will end very badly in a few weeks!
The euro-swiss peg appears to be working for now, however I expect the current levels of USD, EUR and GBP vs CHF to serve as a resistance and possible retracement to occur since they lie at an important fib number. So far the 'buy the rumour, sell the news' mantra is in effect.
I still expect when the next sharp turn comes, EURCHF and GBCHF to tank sub parity! Looks like a long distance from here, but once tested esp on EURCHF it means that is where Mr Market wants to be. Nobody controls Mr Market forever... Besides since SNB started their intervention tacts on EURCHF by placing a fence at 1.5000 back in 2009, look how well the fence has worked!$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Return to my interest view... EURCAD - Almost back to 1.43 USDSGD - Testing 1.19s Waiting for USDZAR to come back to 6.7 - 6.8 AUDCAD - Forming H&S on longterm charts. A test & failure of 1.03 will confirm. If triggered, will fall hard. I'm still an aussie bear & RBA dovish speech last week supports it. On the next CHF charge look at AUDCHF, should fall faster than GBPCHF?! EURUSD - The ugly sisters pair is back above 1.44s No comment Gold looks like it wants to retest last weeks high @ $1815. May break above, but very toppish. No need to chase trades. Back under $1700 is better for a run above $2000. In the meantime look at the narrowing USDJPY bollinger bands. A breakout is coming soon. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 5/7/2009 Posts: 1,032 Location: Sea of Transquility
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hisah wrote:Return to my interest view...
Gold looks like it wants to retest last weeks high @ $1815. May break above, but very toppish. No need to chase trades. Back under $1700 is better for a run above $2000.
In the meantime look at the narrowing USDJPY bollinger bands. A breakout is coming soon.
Seems like I should keep my eyes open and join you in that gold trade, though am not a fan of commodities. I got a small long order for USDJPY @ 77.30 , in anticipation of intervention, b/o etc. Check out of the swiss pairs respected that resistance level I mentioned yesterday. “small step for man”
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Ceinz wrote:hisah wrote:Return to my interest view...
Gold looks like it wants to retest last weeks high @ $1815. May break above, but very toppish. No need to chase trades. Back under $1700 is better for a run above $2000.
In the meantime look at the narrowing USDJPY bollinger bands. A breakout is coming soon.
Seems like I should keep my eyes open and join you in that gold trade, though am not a fan of commodities. I got a small long order for USDJPY @ 77.30 , in anticipation of intervention, b/o etc. Check out of the swiss pairs respected that resistance level I mentioned yesterday. Yap, at 61.8% retracement on the CHF crosses resistance is heavy. I wanted them to spike to 76 - 78% levels so that EURCHF and GBPCHF crash through the parity levels for good!
As for gold and silver, this will keep on rolling over paper money as long as the central planners think that debt monetization aka high-speed inkjet money printing is the way to repay the colossal global national debt.
In 3 years time gold could be above $5000/oz and silver above $100. Physical bullion is better than paper trading of commodos, so try and get some gold and silver.
Btw do we have such bullion facilities in KE?
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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