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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
hisah
#1201 Posted : Friday, November 25, 2011 12:01:54 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Hunderwear wrote:
hisah wrote:
Hunderwear wrote:
Yesterday's index numbers were 3288,are we likely to see a push below the 52week low today and what does it mean?

Yes and it simply means we're in a bear market.

@hisah,Good answer but a was asking about the effect of breaking the 52week low.Is A free fall in the offing?

If u break a former support you'll obviously go lower... Short selling would have helped in hard crashing and finding a support faster.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#1202 Posted : Friday, November 25, 2011 12:05:00 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Eh, mpesa looks like it will let go the 2.90 guardrail today. Coupled with bleeding bank stocks, the slide is about to accelerate.
Fasten your bear belts...Pray
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Aguytrying
#1203 Posted : Friday, November 25, 2011 12:15:00 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
the deal wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
Foreigners are set to make gains if the shilling continues to strengthen. When they sell their shares, they will get more dollars than what they put in to buy the stocks. What's the next ingredient for a recovery.

I'm a foreign investor and i'm not selling the low PE's and high dividend yields are too good to ignore.


It's really beneficial. Even of you make no gains, you make forex gains (as long as the dollar strenthens.

would be liducrous to sell these companies at these prices
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#1204 Posted : Friday, November 25, 2011 1:51:01 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,221
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
All looks set for the Friday Oct 14th 2011 record low index of 3277.50 to be broken!
Next week, i have my eyes set on member at below 16. This is in my view the support level. Millions of shares exchanged hands at this level in April last year.
Some more RooaaaarLaughing out loudly at my favorite 14.85 would do! However, a CBR rate slash Friday next week might make this a pipe dream!
I also have the Agri stocks in my mind i.e WTK and Sasini!
I can then say bye bye to a challenging 2011!
@SufficientlyP
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#1205 Posted : Friday, November 25, 2011 1:57:07 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,221
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
Aguytrying wrote:
the deal wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
Foreigners are set to make gains if the shilling continues to strengthen. When they sell their shares, they will get more dollars than what they put in to buy the stocks. What's the next ingredient for a recovery.

I'm a foreign investor and i'm not selling the low PE's and high dividend yields are too good to ignore.


It's really beneficial. Even of you make no gains, you make forex gains (as long as the dollar strenthens.

would be liducrous to sell these companies at these prices

Wewe Aguy, have you checked your mails in the last 3 weeks?
@SufficientlyP
Mainat
#1206 Posted : Friday, November 25, 2011 2:13:09 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,590
NSE value approaching value pre-16.5% hike. In the unlikely event that CBK hikes CBR again next Thursday, NSE could easily go below 2500 on fundamentals alone...
Sehemu ndio nyumba
hisah
#1207 Posted : Friday, November 25, 2011 2:45:01 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Mainat wrote:
NSE value approaching value pre-16.5% hike. In the unlikely event that CBK hikes CBR again next Thursday, NSE could easily go below 2500 on fundamentals alone...

I have a sneaky feeling that cbr will be jerked up again! Maybe by another 200bps just to squeeze out any remaining 'takataka' siringi as @kizee calls it. Small banks will be forced into a merger at this rate. Money winter and frothy fundamentals will not permit NSE to float above 3000 esp with elections around the corner and a military operation to boot.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Cde Monomotapa
#1208 Posted : Friday, November 25, 2011 2:50:16 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
2,500pts
Mainat
#1209 Posted : Friday, November 25, 2011 2:59:36 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,590
hisah wrote:
Mainat wrote:
NSE value approaching value pre-16.5% hike. In the unlikely event that CBK hikes CBR again next Thursday, NSE could easily go below 2500 on fundamentals alone...

I have a sneaky feeling that cbr will be jerked up again! Maybe by another 200bps just to squeeze out any remaining 'takataka' siringi as @kizee calls it. Small banks will be forced into a merger at this rate. Money winter and frothy fundamentals will not permit NSE to float above 3000 esp with elections around the corner and a military operation to boot.

Very strange. What I call “deepening the hole economics” commonly propounded by the IMF. In the same way that an aggressive austerity is the last thing that Greece needed, a CBR higher than 12% is the last thing our economy needs.

Btw, the next person who tells me about how we fund or control our economy will get a sjambok across their backside…
Sehemu ndio nyumba
ecstacy
#1210 Posted : Friday, November 25, 2011 3:59:55 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2008
Posts: 4,449
On Italy, at 6.5%, the yield on the six-month paper almost doubled compared to a month earlier and showed the appointment of an emergency government to tackle the debt crisis had failed to put a brake on Rome's spiraling borrowing costs...

Then...a meeting of the leaders of Germany, France and Italy yesterday offered no immediate progress in tackling the crisis...

Let it bleed!!!!!
Aguytrying
#1211 Posted : Friday, November 25, 2011 6:19:05 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
the deal wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
Foreigners are set to make gains if the shilling continues to strengthen. When they sell their shares, they will get more dollars than what they put in to buy the stocks. What's the next ingredient for a recovery.

I'm a foreign investor and i'm not selling the low PE's and high dividend yields are too good to ignore.


It's really beneficial. Even of you make no gains, you make forex gains (as long as the dollar strenthens.

would be liducrous to sell these companies at these prices

Wewe Aguy, have you checked your mails in the last 3 weeks?


i havent checked that account, will do!!
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
Aguytrying
#1212 Posted : Friday, November 25, 2011 6:21:39 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
Prices at close of trading on Friday, November 25, 2011
NSE Index: 3,252.59 (down by 36.11 points)

Previous low broken emphatically. No wonder KK wants to test 9.00
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
Eric_Nyamu
#1213 Posted : Friday, November 25, 2011 7:06:46 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 10/6/2011
Posts: 84
Aguytrying wrote:
Prices at close of trading on Friday, November 25, 2011
NSE Index: 3,252.59 (down by 36.11 points)

Previous low broken emphatically. No wonder KK wants to test 9.00


wow . thats what i didnt want ...not only is it the previous low but THE YEARLY LOW !!!!!!!!!!!!! wooooo Gai...where are we headed ..
hisah
#1214 Posted : Friday, November 25, 2011 7:45:54 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
hisah wrote:
Eh, mpesa looks like it will let go the 2.90 guardrail today. Coupled with bleeding bank stocks, the slide is about to accelerate.
Fasten your bear belts...Pray

Mpesa lets go 2.90 after mannnny months of supply test. Coop bank too let go the 14/- handle after many months. I think we will see very ridiculous bluechip prices soon. Fat tails aka discounts galore for 2013 smile
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Eric_Nyamu
#1215 Posted : Friday, November 25, 2011 8:24:00 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 10/6/2011
Posts: 84
hisah wrote:
hisah wrote:
Eh, mpesa looks like it will let go the 2.90 guardrail today. Coupled with bleeding bank stocks, the slide is about to accelerate.
Fasten your bear belts...Pray

Mpesa lets go 2.90 after mannnny months of supply test. Coop bank too let go the 14/- handle after many months. I think we will see very ridiculous bluechip prices soon. Fat tails aka discounts galore for 2013 smile


never thought it would let go of that handle ...
hisah
#1216 Posted : Sunday, November 27, 2011 2:09:36 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Hmmm... I've just noticed that the index broke down 3270-77 level, but most of the bank stocks have not yet retraced their hopium gains... Not pretty this.

For 140 - 170/- the cluster reads ARM, bamburi, EABL, jubilee, NMG and soon stanchart... Interesting price clustering...

Coop will test 10 to settle down. If one bought in 2008 IPO that will be a round trip.

Will NBK be able to defend 20? If broken 15 should provide adequate support.

NIC had better defend 25.

Mumias may revisit sub 5 on the way to 3.60.

KPLC yet again supply test of 17/- coming - 3rd attempt.

KCB not looking good for this simba. 13/- is possible.

DTK @90 needs to hold or 80 will be tested.

CFC sub 40 will get me interested. @deal see u there...

Wow centum sub 14. I thought sub 16 was bad enough?!

Uchumi - this one trapped me for a looong time & I sold without a huff @14.20 after suspension. Sub 7 I'll get interest again.

Britank is a sub 5 candidate. @guru had stated by Dec it will be in the 4s levels. I still see scope of it testing sub 4s... At these levels it gets interesting with such overselling...

So let's see if NSE will closes above 3000 in Dec. Below that will lead to overselling bout in Q1 2012 Sad

Update...
KQ 25/- is resistance for the bounce. Next down trip aims 17.

Mpesa - having let go 2.90, 2009 low @2.55 is now possible. If broken, the few remaining wanjikus will be thrown under the bus. It would be sad to see sub 2s here like that paka!?
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
the deal
#1217 Posted : Sunday, November 27, 2011 3:29:44 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
@hisah if this wave C then the index will hold above 3000, but if its wave 3 or 5 then 3000 will cave in due to the selling pressure, on MSC look at the 5 year chart & u will those classic triangles, which point to Sh4 as the next line of support.
BGL
#1218 Posted : Sunday, November 27, 2011 4:20:37 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/11/2009
Posts: 1,223
Things are tough! i have -21% returns since the beginning of the yr. The worst performers are Carbacid & EACables.
The only right investment decision i made early this year was to focus on dairy farming & putting some money in MURAMATI.
History will not remember you for your IQ. It will remember you for what you did. “Genius is 1 percent inspiration, 99 percent perspiration.” Thomas Edison
kaifastus
#1219 Posted : Sunday, November 27, 2011 6:14:29 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/17/2011
Posts: 207
Location: humu humu
Wow! I cant touch the stock mkt now.can't sell either.just Waiting. Alternative investments are not very reliable,rentals are hit hard by low occup ancy we are forced to lower rent we charge to retain wateja. I think Kenya is facing very trying times ahead.
lovely2010
#1220 Posted : Sunday, November 27, 2011 7:17:16 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/25/2010
Posts: 519
Location: nairobi
the deal wrote:
@hisah if this wave C then the index will hold above 3000, but if its wave 3 or 5 then 3000 will cave in due to the selling pressure, on MSC look at the 5 year chart & u will those classic triangles, which point to Sh4 as the next line of support.


Ill buy MCS @ 2bob...InshaAllah...
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