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Why safaricom must reduce its costs and expenditures to remain a viable stock in future
VituVingiSana
#101 Posted : Friday, September 10, 2010 10:33:14 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,137
Location: Nairobi
GoK (was) bitching about high calling costs & data costs yet refuse to reduce taxes!

26% tax is too high...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Djinn
#102 Posted : Friday, September 10, 2010 10:39:15 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 11/13/2008
Posts: 1,565
@VVS and KulaRaha....

I wrote "In Kenya this process was so BOTCHED and F--KED up in the 90s and early 00s. Telkom Kenya should ideally have been partially privatised at the same time as Kencell and Safaricom were licenced. It should have divested from Safaricom and got its own mobile licence "

Essentially its a "sins of the father" kind of thing. It would be unethical of the present government to be so blase as say "we do not really care that the Moi govt f***ed the process up and left us with a problem child....lets take the investors money and run and thats it"....

I think there could be really serious consequences all around. The French are a big investor in Kenya...

Right now we cannot talk about taxes and Telkom Kenya being a bad entity....as of 2007 its NOT the same body. This is France Telecom as a main shareholder and with total management control. The GoK has a backseat (as it did in SCOM). However, it has certain commitments to uphold and obligations to its investors who came into the market on the premise that the playing field shall always be level as much as possible.

Finally...if you have complained about your taxes...and if you are an investor in any sense....to let Telkom suffer is to let your past taxes and future taxes go to waste. Same thinking as the bail outs in the US - why did Obama not let the financial and automotive sectors die away? Anyone?
KulaRaha
#103 Posted : Friday, September 10, 2010 10:45:42 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/26/2007
Posts: 6,514
So you're saying we should ensure we keep Telkom alive so the French investment is secure?
Business opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming
Djinn
#104 Posted : Friday, September 10, 2010 10:47:24 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 11/13/2008
Posts: 1,565
VituVingiSana wrote:
@djinn: Nice summary... flawed conclusion!

Telkom Kenya is now 'private' [owned in part & controlled by Orange]... If it dies, it dies... end of story! Why should I pay for its inefficiency through my taxes and/or higher charges?



Its actually FT that owns part of Telkom - Orange is an FT subsidiary and the brand for its mobile division.
VituVingiSana
#105 Posted : Friday, September 10, 2010 10:49:10 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,137
Location: Nairobi
1) Obama is a Democrat... [I like the guy but I do not believe in 'tax & spend]. In any event, the actions of Obama + US govt will be judged by history... Does not affect Kenya as much!

2) As for the level playing field... well, Airtel came in years AFTER KenCell was born... Kencell -> Celtel -> Zain... So your argument falls flat!

3) Orange/France Telkom overpaid for Telkom Kenya! Their fault...

4) As for the other stuff [broken promises] FT were compensated... That I agree with... You can't sell what you do not own!

So... brings me back to... Why should I care to support Telkom/Orange in the future using taxpayer cash??? [Old taxes/scams are Sunk Costs]
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
chris79
#106 Posted : Friday, September 10, 2010 10:51:11 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/31/2007
Posts: 341
@djinn can the same argument be applied to Safaricom's case? Protecting the interests of the investor and all?
KulaRaha
#107 Posted : Friday, September 10, 2010 11:11:52 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/26/2007
Posts: 6,514
And what abt protecting Zain? Maybe taxes should help subsidise their losses? Level playing ground?
Business opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming
VituVingiSana
#108 Posted : Friday, September 10, 2010 11:15:07 AM
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Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,137
Location: Nairobi
Do not forget YU & Flashcom either... They would love taxpayer subsidies too...

Erm, there is a VVS Telecom as well... Please fell free to lobby subsidies for it too...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Djinn
#109 Posted : Friday, September 10, 2010 11:16:42 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 11/13/2008
Posts: 1,565
@VVS

You said "2) As for the level playing field... well, Airtel came in years AFTER KenCell was born... Kencell -> Celtel -> Zain... So your argument falls flat! "

Not sure what mean here and what that has to do with my statement....or with Orange who were licenced in 2007 and started their race 7 years down the road...pls elucidate...maybe I am having a slow day...

My point, GoK f***ed up in the late 90s...ideally whoever was to invest in Telkom should have been identified at THAT time. The cart before the horse....We should also NOT forget that the selection of Vodafone as an investor in SCOM was not a transparent process and not openly procured....that in itself set a BAD precedent and allowed it to grow into a monstrosity...sheltered by government since it had investments and CCK had barely cut its milk teeth and at one point the leadership as CCK was like having a wolf herd your sheep...all that has changed now...

Having said that, we are such hypocrites... happy to reap huge profits from what started as a corrupt process (SCOM) and be indifferent to investors, FT, who are paying the price for the same corruption in the same era and entering the game 7 years too late...


VituVingiSana
#110 Posted : Friday, September 10, 2010 11:23:33 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,137
Location: Nairobi
Since FT came in much later they knew the landscape coming in [I dont mean the sale of assets that were not there] just like Airtel did!

Basically, FT can't expect special treatment coz the playing field was level for all in Voice by the time Airtel came in... Telkom/Orange had an advantage over Zain/Airtel in that they have both CDMA + GSM license!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Djinn
#111 Posted : Friday, September 10, 2010 11:30:41 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 11/13/2008
Posts: 1,565
@KulaRaha and VVS - Zain, Yu, Flashcom, Popote... I'm afraid my knowledge of how much shareholding the government has in these entities is rather limited...so I cannot with any degree of certainty say whether we should protect them...

I'm also a bit vague about how long they have been PRIVATE entities in the market but I could fathom a guess and say they are certainly more long in the tooth than FT/Orange in Kenya.

So, what do you think? Should we subsidise Zain, Flashcom and Yu given the stake GoK and taxpayers have in them?
Djinn
#112 Posted : Friday, September 10, 2010 11:38:09 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 11/13/2008
Posts: 1,565
chris79 wrote:
@djinn can the same argument be applied to Safaricom's case? Protecting the interests of the investor and all?


@Chris - no. In this particular case, I am only trying to argue for Telkom because it started out late as a privatised entity and unlike Vodafone who have reaped profits for 10 years, FT is yet to break even.
VituVingiSana
#113 Posted : Friday, September 10, 2010 11:41:25 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,137
Location: Nairobi
I say... NO-ONE should be subsidized!

In Kenya, most firms that got subsidies were BLACK HOLES...

Look at KQ... It has been 'private' since the 90s... and (mostly) profitable unlike most of its counterparts in Africa including Air Zimbabwe, Air Tanzania, (old) Air Uganda... even South African Airways!

We have other black holes like KPC [Huge lawsuits], KPRL, etc!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
KulaRaha
#114 Posted : Friday, September 10, 2010 11:42:04 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/26/2007
Posts: 6,514
FT should not have come if they didn't want to compete.

Business opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming
youcan'tstopusnow
#115 Posted : Friday, September 10, 2010 11:51:51 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
I say the field IS level already
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
KulaRaha
#116 Posted : Friday, September 10, 2010 11:56:22 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/26/2007
Posts: 6,514
This arguement of protecting Telkom still doesn't make sense. No one supporting it has given one sensible reason why we should defend Telkom.

Amazing...its like Safcon diehards who are upset we are calling at 3/=.

Illogical.
Business opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming
VituVingiSana
#117 Posted : Friday, September 10, 2010 12:04:06 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,137
Location: Nairobi
You know the advert about French guns:

"WW2 French guns for sale. Dropped once, never fired."

"I would rather have a German division in front of me than a French one behind me." —General George S. Patton

An old saying: Raise your right hand if you like the French.... Raise both hands if you are French.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Rahatupu
#118 Posted : Friday, September 10, 2010 1:34:30 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 1,982
Location: matano manne
@Abunuasi, 4G and video idea very good, but think about the numbers, could they get the needed critical mass to sustain video calls as a competitive advantage?
2. Safcom's diversification into computer and handset sales, can they expand fast enough and into the mass market (outside Nairobi)?
Only when the answers to these questions are in the affirmative, then Safcom can sustain its edge against a brutal bully that Airtel seems to be.

@Kularaha, Jua mingi: I bet Dr. Ndemo was right in looking at the aspect of unhealthy competition. All the job losses as highlighted in reduced sales (Who uses 500 and 1k scratch cards anymore?). Airtel will repatriate its profits/and losses too. The subscribers maybe the happy lot now. Lets enjoy it.

While at it Zain seemed the saviour to most pple when they were the 1st to lower to 3 bob. It seems to work since some pple are ignoring the fact that Safcom is still cheaper than Zain (2bob). Though it seems to have eased out since there is not as much activity from Zain calls as was initially. Therefore Safcom should lower charges of M-pesa, data before Zain spoils the party.

For investors, lets wait for Safcom at below 3.50 to enter on long term basis.
Mpenzi
#119 Posted : Friday, September 10, 2010 3:59:27 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/17/2008
Posts: 1,234
@Djinn

Perception is crucial in matters of govt subsidies. Uchumi was subsidized and kept alive by the government mostly becoz of public sentiment that it was 'ours' and shouldnt be let to die. We could as well as let it die and have Nakumatt, Tuskys etc rule the roost. I dont think Telkom Kenya inspires the same kind of public sentiment and it would be much harder to convince govt to sink in more money into the entity, particularly because Telkom appears so rudderless and with no game plan.
VituVingiSana
#120 Posted : Friday, September 10, 2010 5:25:47 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,137
Location: Nairobi
@mpenzi - I have ZERO upenzi for Telkom! At least Uchumi was an entity that tried to serve Kenyans!

In the 90s, Uchumi was king under an able CEO... then came kirubi's henchman & bye-bye Uchumi! I have no fond memories of Telkom!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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