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Access Kenya free fall.
mv_ufanisi
#51 Posted : Tuesday, May 11, 2010 10:24:41 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/15/2010
Posts: 625
sheep wrote:
This is the right time to jump into access...I wish I had more cash!!!


Many hearts have been broken by shares which people expected to come back up but stayed down for a looong time and some eventually died.

However if it's cheap enough, I will get in too.
PKoli
#52 Posted : Tuesday, May 11, 2010 10:33:18 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
At Equity the CEO JM is always bullish when taking about the bank..The same with MJ at Safcom. Even when the shares take substantial beatings the two guys are always bullish..

I do not see the same in the Somens yet they hold relatively higher % of the company than say JM in Equity.

My last buys of Access were in the range of 10-14. I am not sure I attempt this time round.
Djinn
#53 Posted : Tuesday, May 11, 2010 12:43:22 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 11/13/2008
Posts: 1,565
sheep wrote:
This is the right time to jump into access...I wish I had more cash!!!


maybe the right time to jump into an abyss...

If today was May 11th 2007, then please, knock yourself out.

1 - At that time SCOM, Zain, et al did not have converged licences.
2 - At that time Zuku had not raised its head -
3 - mobile data (those annoying USB dongles we've seen getting hawked or unlocked here, esp SCOM ones) were either VERY Expensive (remember those things were abt 20k) or not widely available. Now every Dumb, Prick and Harry seems to have one.
4 - Telkom Kenya - aka the phoenix, is rising from the ashes with intentions of taking back the hill. Never mind their billion shilling loss...
5 - the different submarine systems we have active today (TEAMS and SEACOM) were but plans on paper. Now its a reality and Eassy will soon be commissioned.

AK moved to the consumer segment rather late and with a VERY pricey product. Now Zain/SCOM/Yu/Orange have more or less establised that EDGE/GPRS/3G can do as well as WiMax (or Fibre) esp when it boils down to cost. So, consumer market? No cigar, sorry.

Enterprise market - KDN, UUNet,, Afrol, Zuku, Safaricom Business, Orange Business, Tangering....should I go on?

Cost acquisition of OpenView - not yet making real $ from that.

What do you guys think? 2007 abt 55% market share in customers (and perhaps 70% in revenues) in the business segment....2010 its very likely about 25% in number of customers (and perhaps 35% in terms of revenues - lower bandwidth pricing thus lower revenues + competition + capex) .....
sparkly
#54 Posted : Tuesday, May 11, 2010 8:03:53 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
@djinn i like your analysis, very sensible. The ICT cake is quite huge and will continue to grow esp with generation of local content. Good as zuku, orange etc are, Access and safcom offer the only alternatives for me and you to take part in the ICT feast! At the right price i think access is a good investment. And the price is starting to look yummy.
Life is short. Live passionately.
PKoli
#55 Posted : Wednesday, May 12, 2010 7:31:27 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
@Djinn. Thanks for the informative analysis. I will surely stand on the fence as far as Access is concerned
Jaguar
#56 Posted : Thursday, May 13, 2010 9:58:24 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 6/7/2007
Posts: 263
Location: humu humu
No foreign sales up to this moment (12:00pm). If foreigners keep away for 1week, it might close next week @23.00/
youcan'tstopusnow
#57 Posted : Thursday, May 13, 2010 7:05:46 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
WHY ACCESS KENYA'S AGM WAS SUSPENDED

http://www.businessdaily.../-/k4g9uhz/-/index.html

At least now all the rumour mongers can shut up.
The company is still on the right track.
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
the deal
#58 Posted : Thursday, May 13, 2010 7:31:56 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
@youcant on the right track how??? they did spend half a billion on a 150km optic fiber cable...yet Jamil telkom did spend 300 mil for 200km...the somen brothers run access like a family company...do u see what i see there?????
muganda
#59 Posted : Thursday, May 13, 2010 7:49:10 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,907
Mmm mmmhhh @the deal, I must agree with you. I read the story and it does not offer the comfort @youcan'tstopusnow alludes to. It actually justifies a lower value than is currently on the boards. Reason being this share is always afforded a premium P/E and I wonder whether they can reasonably lay claim to that multiple now?

What a story though! I for one can give testament to how difficult it is for founders/family to transition from personal to professional above the board setups. The question always on the founders/family minds is:
'Who do they think they are questioning us...where were they when we started this company?'
youcan'tstopusnow
#60 Posted : Thursday, May 13, 2010 7:50:12 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
the deal, I accept that the Somen Brothers (and Father) don't understand that the Access Kenya is now a listed company on the NSE. I mean, they completely disregarded advice from the board.
But having said that, AK is not going bust. I know you agree with that. The company will (barring a disaster) record much improved earnings for this financial year. The heavy investment into the cable ate into their profits. That will change this year.
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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