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Kenya Debt Watch
Cde Monomotapa
#101 Posted : Monday, October 17, 2011 5:49:07 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Stop being naive guys. Show me one country that was built with hard cash.
kizee1
#102 Posted : Monday, October 17, 2011 10:16:56 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Stop being naive guys. Show me one country that was built with hard cash.


read your history, when did nations start borrowing to finance their deficits? your assertion is that NO nation grew other than from debt?
kizee1
#103 Posted : Monday, October 17, 2011 10:29:28 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
from wiki

HistoryThe first ever government bond was issued by the English government in 1693 to raise money to fund a war against France. It was in the form of a tontine. Later, governments in Europe started issuing perpetual bonds (bonds with no maturity date) to fund wars and other government spending. The use of perpetual bonds ceased in the 20th century, and currently governments issue bonds of limited duration.

so to answer your question...every prosperous nation before 1693
Scubidu
#104 Posted : Monday, October 17, 2011 3:58:13 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
hisah wrote:
Thanks @scubidu. I had forgotten the name of this thread.

scubidu wrote:

USD 2.0 Billion 4-Year Fixed Rate; Coupon: 1.125% - August 18, 2010
http://treasury.worldban...billionGlobal_Bond.html

But the curious thing is that all the USD bonds before and after it had a basis for their pricing; a spread over a corresponding US Treasury Note. However, the August 2010 auction had no pricing details and the coupon rate was significantly lower than all the others (you just need to compare the coupon rates on the April and May 2010 issues; The rate on the 3-year bond in April was considerably higher than the 4-year).


Nobody saw this nor questioned this world bank houdini act. See no evil... Goodluck with the rains for they'll 'fix' the economy...


@Hisah. Yes nobody questioned it. Well... but think about it World Bank tells you to buy bonds it's issuing (you really don't have no choice). And what's the return? Interest income on World Bank RAMP for fiscal year June 2011 was 355m from a 38b investment... oh dear.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
Scubidu
#105 Posted : Monday, October 17, 2011 4:10:06 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
Mainat wrote:
Scubidu-you've been MIA hope its for a good cause.
Yes, ile ndeni this mzee will leave us with is a work of ugly art. Imho, its easy to look good when you are splashing out but even when its on good projects, you still need to remember its borrowed cash.
Imho, our choice of the next president must be informed by:
Either we get a president with the strategy to grow the economy at 10% pa (without additional borrowing).
Or one who will help Kenya cuts its cloth accordingly.


@mainat. Always for a good cause, but u still have the record... u were away for year, last i remember.
We're pretty much screwed on the borrowing side... as long as cbk is not independent. But we borrow for so much unncessary crap, like military... we can't even take museveni on in a fair fight.
Unfortunately for prezzo, the latest increase in debt has been pure revaluation... guess that's why he's getting serious on exchange rates.
Off topic though. Ive been catching up on The Banking (Amendment) Bill, 2011. The new sections are limiting the interest rates spread. The MPC will set the lending rate and a cbk base rate will determine deposit rates. Bankers will not be happy.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
Scubidu
#106 Posted : Saturday, October 22, 2011 2:39:57 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
Fingers crossed. Hoping we don't buy this!

http://treasury.worldban...D4billionGlobalBond.html
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
the deal
#107 Posted : Sunday, November 27, 2011 11:36:05 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Kenya's domestic debt now stand at 759 bln, interest rate payment up to July top last year.
Scubidu
#108 Posted : Monday, November 28, 2011 2:34:54 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
the deal wrote:
Kenya's domestic debt now stand at 759 bln, interest rate payment up to July top last year.


@the deal. Actually it's around 795 bln. Add to that the 799 bln on external and things start to look crazy (glad the exchange rate has come down). Oh yeah that's external debt figures was before IMF gave us the emergency loan and KenGen the new one.

Keep your eye out for the domestic debt figure on 12th & 19th December though. Interesting times ahead. I foresee injections.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
accelriskconsult
#109 Posted : Monday, November 28, 2011 8:20:28 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/2/2011
Posts: 629
Location: Nai
Scubidu wrote:
Mainat wrote:
Scubidu-you've been MIA hope its for a good cause.
Yes, ile ndeni this mzee will leave us with is a work of ugly art. Imho, its easy to look good when you are splashing out but even when its on good projects, you still need to remember its borrowed cash.
Imho, our choice of the next president must be informed by:
Either we get a president with the strategy to grow the economy at 10% pa (without additional borrowing).
Or one who will help Kenya cuts its cloth accordingly.


@mainat. Always for a good cause, but u still have the record... u were away for year, last i remember.
We're pretty much screwed on the borrowing side... as long as cbk is not independent. But we borrow for so much unncessary crap, like military... we can't even take museveni on in a fair fight.
Unfortunately for prezzo, the latest increase in debt has been pure revaluation... guess that's why he's getting serious on exchange rates.
Off topic though. Ive been catching up on The Banking (Amendment) Bill, 2011. The new sections are limiting the interest rates spread. The MPC will set the lending rate and a cbk base rate will determine deposit rates. Bankers will not be happy.



Guys do you think the CBK has been acting as the lender of last resort?
hisah
#110 Posted : Monday, November 28, 2011 3:49:48 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Gubberment debt at a squeeze crossroad... I can hardly wait for the June 2012 budget.

http://www.businessdaily...2/-/o405ocz/-/index.html
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
eboomerang
#111 Posted : Monday, November 28, 2011 7:09:18 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/27/2011
Posts: 301
Location: Nairobi
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Stop being naive guys. Show me one country that was built with hard cash.

My guy! who is naive here Shame on you

I'm not sure you know what you are talking about. You really need to understand how some of the G20 countries operate and then come back to your comment.
Cde Monomotapa
#112 Posted : Monday, November 28, 2011 8:15:25 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Maybe u school me on the Euro SOVEREIGN DEBT crisis about smile cash or credit?
GGK
#113 Posted : Monday, November 28, 2011 9:05:29 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 608
Location: Ruiru
I just read the Highlights of Kenya’s Debt Strategy by Treasury present at the OECD Forum in Paris in Nov 2009.

The number of assumptions made in the strategy is mind-boggling. How do they manage with so many assumptions? No wonder am not an economist.
"..I am because we are. "― Ubuntu, Umtu,
Scubidu
#114 Posted : Tuesday, November 29, 2011 9:14:15 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
accelriskconsult wrote:
Scubidu wrote:
Mainat wrote:
Scubidu-you've been MIA hope its for a good cause.
Yes, ile ndeni this mzee will leave us with is a work of ugly art. Imho, its easy to look good when you are splashing out but even when its on good projects, you still need to remember its borrowed cash.
Imho, our choice of the next president must be informed by:
Either we get a president with the strategy to grow the economy at 10% pa (without additional borrowing).
Or one who will help Kenya cuts its cloth accordingly.


@mainat. Always for a good cause, but u still have the record... u were away for year, last i remember.
We're pretty much screwed on the borrowing side... as long as cbk is not independent. But we borrow for so much unncessary crap, like military... we can't even take museveni on in a fair fight.
Unfortunately for prezzo, the latest increase in debt has been pure revaluation... guess that's why he's getting serious on exchange rates.
Off topic though. Ive been catching up on The Banking (Amendment) Bill, 2011. The new sections are limiting the interest rates spread. The MPC will set the lending rate and a cbk base rate will determine deposit rates. Bankers will not be happy.



Guys do you think the CBK has been acting as the lender of last resort?


I think recently they've tried to reinforce that point... I think they are doing a good job of restoring their lender-of-last-resort facility. But they start doing it now when perhaps the market needs them to be a little bit more lenient. Ino some Tier 3 banks paying a high cost of funds right now, it would be good for them to access cheaper money rather than go bankrupt.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
Scubidu
#115 Posted : Tuesday, November 29, 2011 11:19:03 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
GGK wrote:
I just read the Highlights of Kenya’s Debt Strategy by Treasury present at the OECD Forum in Paris in Nov 2009.

The number of assumptions made in the strategy is mind-boggling. How do they manage with so many assumptions? No wonder am not an economist.


I think the assumptions are not too bad. I'm sure they try to build really complicated models (when sometimes things aren't so complex). But without the assumptions you'd probably be groping in the dark.

One good thing for sure is that although our debt is rising fast we're not yet facing a payment crisis. The external debt is concessionary (with payments suspended for many years) and domestic debt is increasingly becoming short (cause people expect inflation to fall).

In terms of making assumptions on debt sustainability... it shouldn't be too hard given the above. The debt strategy has been thrown out of whack momentarily becoz of inflation, but it's safe to assume we're not in bad shape with regard to paying off the cost of debt in the long term. In the short term... let's wait and see.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
Scubidu
#116 Posted : Wednesday, February 01, 2012 4:38:48 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
So the stats guys crunched the numbers. They told us Kenya debt to GDP was 56.6% in September 2011, then 46.6% in November 2011. I was shocked, in awe. We cut debt to GDP by 10% in two months? Or put another way GDP grew 19.1% in two months... keep cooking those figures boys (cos right now it's well done).

Download the reports below:

http://www.treasury.go.k...mp;gid=108&Itemid=54
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
hisah
#117 Posted : Wednesday, February 01, 2012 5:04:10 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
[quote=Scubidu]So the stats guys crunched the numbers. They told us Kenya debt to GDP was 56.6% in September 2011, then 46.6% in November 2011. I was shocked, in awe. We cut debt to GDP by 10% in two months? Or put another way GDP grew 19.1% in two months... keep cooking those figures boys (cos right now it's well done).

Download the reports below:

http://www.treasury.go.k...p;gid=108&Itemid=54[/quote]

KE Treasury houdini stuff... With ponzinomics anything is possible. Don't be shocked, this is not taught in normal schools you know Think
That GDP growth would even get the chings to camp here to learn the bewitching tricks...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Cde Monomotapa
#118 Posted : Wednesday, February 01, 2012 6:58:00 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Haven't U factored KES strength over the period? OMG...
Scubidu
#119 Posted : Thursday, February 02, 2012 10:19:34 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Haven't U factored KES strength over the period? OMG...


yes. the change in November is 80b in that one month alone when shilling appreciated. That's a 10% change in debt from reval alone. very impressive. But that's can't explain the GDP ratio.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
Cde Monomotapa
#120 Posted : Thursday, February 02, 2012 11:46:30 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Scubidu wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Haven't U factored KES strength over the period? OMG...


yes. the change in November is 80b in that one month alone when shilling appreciated. That's a 10% change in debt from reval alone. very impressive. But that's can't explain the GDP ratio.

GDP is static my friend.
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