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Agriculture Stocks - Moto Moto
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cnn
#101 Posted : Monday, March 15, 2010 10:33:53 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 6/17/2009
Posts: 1,619
Retired my whole lot of sasini @ 16.65,the sweet gains go to KPLC..its free money i can live with the conversion uncertainity.The initial capital to Kenol.
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kishindo
#102 Posted : Monday, March 15, 2010 12:19:41 PM
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Joined: 1/11/2008
Posts: 121
bye bye sasini...twas nice doing biz with you....
Less is more....for Architects only!!
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mv_ufanisi
#103 Posted : Monday, March 15, 2010 1:55:15 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/15/2010
Posts: 625
@cnn - you are a real strategist. Wah that was on the spot timing. However given that someone bought so much at 16.65 - and seems that the person has a lot of cash, I wonder if this bus will not drive on again. Let's see what happens tomorrow and the days after. I might join you in KPLC if I'm able to offload my Sasn tomorrow.
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sheep
#104 Posted : Monday, March 15, 2010 2:48:54 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 7/24/2008
Posts: 781
I expected a price correction in Sasini today but it seems to edge upwards without resistance,I have enough profit margin to sit tight and wait for the stock to run its full course.
I don't take profits easily,its the losses that I have learnt to take with a "cheer".Its always the staying that makes the real money,you'll never make a ten bagger by darting in and out of the market.In a bull market the strategy is to hold until you are sure the run is over,most probably after 4-5yrs as has been historically.
The utimate goal of investing is to buy low sell high;if we re-write this core equation in psychology terms it becomes buy fear sell greed.
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sparkly
#105 Posted : Monday, March 15, 2010 5:50:39 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
sheep wrote:
I expected a price correction in Sasini today but it seems to edge upwards without resistance,I have enough profit margin to sit tight and wait for the stock to run its full course.
I don't take profits easily,its the losses that I have learnt to take with a "cheer".Its always the staying that makes the real money,you'll never make a ten bagger by darting in and out of the market.In a bull market the strategy is to hold until you are sure the run is over,most probably after 4-5yrs as has been historically.


@sheep for the agricultural stocks, the gods have smiled broadly at us. Time to sell, let the next generation of investors take over.

Bye Kakuzi thanks for the 150% gain.
Life is short. Live passionately.
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Much Know
#106 Posted : Monday, March 15, 2010 6:05:14 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/6/2008
Posts: 3,548
I cannot hide my envy for anyone who made cash on agrics however the agric market is very 'futures' especially foreigners, bets were made on weather forcasts months ago, you are most likely buying a foreigners stock or a very very very long term patient holder, there are even njahi (lablab) futures you name it. The skill is not how to get into a liquid agric but how to get out. Ebu lets see.
A New Kenya
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Kaufman
#107 Posted : Monday, March 15, 2010 6:40:40 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 1/29/2010
Posts: 23
Keep holding there ain't nothing stopping the agri stocks, atleast not in the near future. Weather forecast looks good through the long rainy season. No temptations to sell yet.
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VituVingiSana
#108 Posted : Tuesday, March 16, 2010 1:57:56 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
LOL... Well, I feel vindicated for starting this thread!

BTW, Kakuzi made about 15/- (without the biological gains) so pretty cheap even at 88/- (PER less than 6)... Very cheap! Should be over 100/-
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Much Know
#109 Posted : Tuesday, March 16, 2010 9:03:45 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/6/2008
Posts: 3,548
Some jamaas are busy struggling to run out of sasini with profit whilst others are running into agrics still at this prices, whats up?
A New Kenya
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guru267
#110 Posted : Tuesday, March 16, 2010 9:07:59 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
@much know... these are just profit takers... i mean who wouldnt take profits after making 85% in two weeks??? but sasini is still pretty cheap so i expect it continue with its run...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Much Know
#111 Posted : Tuesday, March 16, 2010 9:18:12 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/6/2008
Posts: 3,548
@guru267, i am very tempted to try it but i will just let this one pass, let me stick to my strategies
A New Kenya
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guru267
#112 Posted : Tuesday, March 16, 2010 9:31:19 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
@much know you should stick to your strategies especially with agriculturals since they they have made more PAUPERS than they have PRINCES....
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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VituVingiSana
#113 Posted : Tuesday, March 16, 2010 1:17:53 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
@guru - All stocks have risks... Buy for the future... Kapchorua Tea is 100% into tea... and tea prices remain strong even if the production has jumped...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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guru267
#114 Posted : Wednesday, March 17, 2010 9:38:52 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
sasini imeanza kuchoma watu!!
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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mv_ufanisi
#115 Posted : Wednesday, March 17, 2010 10:12:16 AM
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Joined: 1/15/2010
Posts: 625
Glad I got out at 15. This baby is headed south side.
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guru267
#116 Posted : Thursday, March 18, 2010 7:22:08 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
@guru - All stocks have risks... Buy for the future... Kapchorua Tea is 100% into tea... and tea prices remain strong even if the production has jumped...


@VVS its true all stocks have risks... but the risk associated with agriculturals is HUGE...
i mean too huge to hold them for the long term.... i mean tea prices are high for now but what happens when all farmers start producing tea to chase these prices???

all that said kakuzi's price is very justified given that its earnings rose in a very TERRIBLE agricultural environment...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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VituVingiSana
#117 Posted : Thursday, March 18, 2010 10:02:43 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
@guru - I was referring to Sasini as being over-priced (not Kakuzi).

Kakuzi has 20mn shares but very few in the public domain... They will have similar profits in 2010.

Kakuzi is going to use the cash they didnt pay as dividends to pay down the debt...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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sparkly
#118 Posted : Thursday, March 18, 2010 10:31:47 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
@guru - I was referring to Sasini as being over-priced (not Kakuzi).

Kakuzi has 20mn shares but very few in the public domain... They will have similar profits in 2010.

Kakuzi is going to use the cash they didnt pay as dividends to pay down the debt...


Question - Kakuzi broke out at 38. Its obvious that its on the way down. Aren't there good chances that the price will approach 38 at some point in the future? I assume 38 forms a new support for the share.
Life is short. Live passionately.
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guru267
#119 Posted : Thursday, March 18, 2010 10:49:13 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
@sparkly
38bob for Kakuzi is not even a dream but a NIGHTMARE.... its EPS went up to 17.34 and this year looks much better for the company so no way it can fall that far (i think)..

the thing with agriculturals is they trade on very thin volumes so it is extremely hard to determine support and resistance levels for them...

my advice to you if you want to enter is to enter at a point or level where you feel you are buying value...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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mkonomtupu
#120 Posted : Thursday, March 18, 2010 11:15:34 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
Now the agric stocks are now in full retreat. I pity those who bought at those high prices. Hope you don't get stuck for a long time. These agric stocks had a similar dance in the 1990's.
Guru, EPS in agric stocks is never a good guide to make decisions.

The next roller-coaster is going to the financials
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