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Rank: Member Joined: 11/13/2006 Posts: 551 Location: Nairobi
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The Buccaneers of Finance have set their sights on an emerging Africa. Having secured vital resources over the past two years whilst the West wrangled with a financial sector under duress, the seemingly obvious path is development of processing and manufacturing industries. I’m bullish on Africa, are you? “LONDON — China and the World Bank are in talks on setting up low-cost factories in new industrial zones in Africa to help nations achieve higher economic growth, bank president Robert Zoellick said Friday. Zoellick said Beijing had shown "strong interest" in proposals to establish manufacturing operations to reverse Africa's declining share of global trade and achieve growth paths similar to those in some Asian nations….” Read more: http://www.google.com/ho...uwnLaCd6aKuwlc-Wr2WV-xEA
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/13/2006 Posts: 551 Location: Nairobi
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"That the free enterprise economy is given to recurrent episodes of speculation will be agreed. These — great events and small, involving bank notes, securities, real estate, art and other assets or objects — are, over the years and centuries, part of history. What has not been sufficiently analyzed are the features common to these episodes, the things that signal their certain return, and have thus the considerable practical value of aiding understanding and prediction. Regulation and more orthodox economic knowledge are not what protect the individual and the financial institution when euphoria returns, leading on as it does to wonder at the increase in values and wealth, to the rush to participate that drives up prices, and to the eventual crash and its sullen and painful aftermath. There is protection only in a clear perception of the characteristics common to these flights into what must conservatively be described as mass insanity. Only then is the investor warned and saved." A Short History of Financial Euphoria (1990) by J.K. Galbraith
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/13/2006 Posts: 551 Location: Nairobi
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"In recent days, world attention has focused on the potential debt default of Dubai World, the main government-owned corporation in the emirate of Dubai. The transformation of the city-state from a Persian Gulf backwater into the glittering financial capital of the Middle East can only be fully appreciated by those who watched it grow over the last 15 years. But as palm-shaped islands sprouted and spires shot up into the clouds, few spectators realized that Dubai was constructing the perfect metaphor of the 21st century economy: a mirage built on debt..." Read more: http://www.321gold.com/e...browne/browne120309.html
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Rank: Member Joined: 10/29/2009 Posts: 25
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@KaranjaKinuthia- I have read most of your posts under this title and most of them are informative on matters of general business knowlegde.
My question to you is- is there a way this knowledge can be translated into value, particularly monetary value, wealth? I guess thats why most of us are in this forum.
For example, based on the research u have carried out, would you be able to say in plain language- it is possible to invest in gold, crude oil, other commodities today through say futures, and this is the minimum amount (capital) you require, these are the brokers that I know who would provide services to 'small' investors like you etc- or is there a way we can start a company to sell such information etc.
Otherwise without direct link to wealth, this information may not be very useful, except for update of global business news.
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 12/3/2009 Posts: 7 Location: Nairibi
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@Mturi,i think Karanja's information can be translated into wealth though not a local platform.One of the fund houses i represent invests in these african countries and in precious metal and a variety of investment vehicles.
look up Dry Associates Investment bank for more details.
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/13/2006 Posts: 551 Location: Nairobi
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@Mturi, on October 24, 2009, I wrote: Kinuthiakaranja wrote:@Kangi
Thank you for your kind words and encouragement.
'With all thy getting get understanding.' - Steve Forbes
I have had the fortune to experience two bull markets,one in commodities (2001 - present) and the other in the NSE (2001 - 2006). I have been even more fortunate to experience three bear markets,one in the NSE (1997 - 2001),NSE (2006 - present) and the U.S. (2007 - present).
In that time,I have learnt from investing greats such as Warren Buffet,Benjamin Graham,Peter Lynch,Jim Rogers,Jim Sinclair,Monty Guild,Jim Puplava as well as the master of time,Martin Armstrong.
Great fortunes have been made by intrepid or courageous investors who get in at the genesis of a bull market and ride it all through. Recent examples have been the 1968-1980 commodity bull run,1982-1989 Japan asset bubble,1994-2000 Dot Com bubble and 2001-present commodity bull run.
Martin Armstrong and Jim Rogers have predicted the peak of the current commodity bull run to be in 2015 - 2016. This period will also exhibit a decline in the value of the U.S. Dollar versus a basket of major currencies,possibly culminating in a Dollar crisis. In addition,investors will sell government debt leading to flows into the stock market. As a result,interest rates in developed nations are poised to rise significantly and so are the stock markets.
Unlike most bull markets,one that involves commodities permeates all of organized society. Producers dance whilst consumers grimace. At $120 per barrel oil,the Gulf States had reserves worth $1 trillion,the highest for the region in history.
To benefit,an investor has a myriad of options. The most trodden path is to purchase gold and silver bullion and coins e.g. British sovereigns,American Gold Eagles and Buffalos,Canadian Maple Leafs,Austrian Philharmonics and Australian Kangaroos. An allocation of between 5-33% of your liquid net worth is recommended as a hedge against the decline in purchasing power. The investor can then add on selected gold and silver mining equities.
Selected currencies such as the Canadian Dollar and Swiss Franc also provide protection. An investor may choose further diversification by investing in crude oil producers and fertilizer companies.
A truly hands on approach is engagement in farming of internationally traded cash crops such as wheat,maize,soyabeans,sugar,cotton and coffee which are set to benefit from investment flows.
Lastly,sophisticated investors may speculate in the gold and silver futures market or forex market with a bias towards anti-dollar currencies such as Euro,Yen,Australian Dollar,New Zealand Kiwi and Norwegian Krona. I've left out futures for they are the playground of hedge funds with their algorithmic trading platforms. They are best left for trading professionals. I use Firstrade as my stock broker. They are ranked eigth in the list below: http://www.smartmoney.co...9-broker-survey/?page=8
Minimum funds to set up an account are dependent on the broker. Most discount brokers have minimums of between $0 and $1,000. They are good avenues to start with. You may prefer full service brokers that have higher minimum balances as listed below: http://www.smartmoney.co...e-Full-Service-Brokers/
If you would like more information or assistance in investing in commodities, please inbox me at karanjakinuthia@hotmail.com or call 0722845343.
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Rank: Member Joined: 10/29/2009 Posts: 25
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@Karanjakinuthia
Thanks for this info. I will drop u a line at some point. In the interim, do these brokers also offer option for investing in pounds instead of dollars. I would like to invest in pounds instead
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/13/2006 Posts: 551 Location: Nairobi
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@Mturi Brokers usually trade in the currency of their domicile. U.S. based brokers will house funds denominated in U.S. Dollars. Most mining shares are traded in U.S. and Canadian Dollars. Seek a broker that also allows you to access Canadian markets mostly via the Pink Sheets. Junior miners and explorers are housed in the Toronto and Vancouver markets. Bear in mind, you are seeking to benefit from the weakness of the Dollar, therefore the hard assets you purchase should be denominated in that currency. The U.K. has followed the footsteps of the U.S. resulting in a weak Pound. You stand to benefit from rising assets in both your "home and away" currencies.
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/13/2006 Posts: 551 Location: Nairobi
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Deja vu for Japan. In the years 2002-2003, the Bank of Japan engaged in a $300 billion stimulus plan with the intention of reversing years of deflation following the collapse of its assets bubble in 1989. It only served to weaken the Yen and stimulate exports. Following the 2007 financial crisis, the Yen has soared to 14 year highs against the dollar effectively stalling the export-led recovery. The domestic economy has yet to reverse the now 20 year downward spiral. Politicians will not learn from history. This measure adds to the liquidity sloshing around the world from easy money policies of developed countries. "Dec. 8 (Bloomberg) -- The Japanese government unveiled a 7.2 trillion yen ($81 billion) economic stimulus package amid signs the recovery and Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama’s popularity are waning. Hatoyama’s first stimulus plan includes 3.5 trillion yen to help regions, 600 billion yen for employment and 800 billion yen on environmental initiatives, the Cabinet said today in a statement in Tokyo. The measures had been delayed because of haggling within the coalition government..." Read more: http://www.bloomberg.com...101&sid=aKEgYWoMAWIc
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/13/2006 Posts: 551 Location: Nairobi
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The "black gold of Chebkube" is in a long term bull market. Co-op bank is strategically positioning itself. I hope the interests of the farmer are front and center, otherwise they will be written off as another hollow initiative. "A fresh battle over market share is shaping up in the lucrative coffee marketing business with a newly formed marketing company declaring it had already signed contracts for more than a third of this year’s expected national production of the commodity. The Co-operative Bank of Kenya-backed Kenya Co-operative Coffee Exporters Limited (KCCE) said it had signed contracts with coffee farmers amounting to 20,000 tonnes equivalent to 37 per cent of the 54,000 tonnes that the Coffee Board of Kenya (CBK) expects from the current 2009/10 crop season. “The figure is expected to rise as more farmers continue signing our marketing agreements,” KCCE CEO, Lucy Murumba, said, touting better prices for growers..." Read more: http://www.businessdaily.../-/t6dg50z/-/index.html
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,118 Location: Nairobi
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Isn't tea a far larger market/export for Kenya vs coffee? Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/13/2006 Posts: 551 Location: Nairobi
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@ VituVingiSana Yes, tea is a larger export earner than coffee. Kenya has been a dominant player in the tea sector. For a few years, tea producers were guilty of oversupply the global market resulting in diminished profits. On the other hand, the Kenyan coffee sector has been mired in dwindling profitability and declining production. Fortuna, the Roman goddess which we derive the term "fortune", has been kind to the commodity sector with coffee lagging the performance of wheat and corn. The low in the sector has been marked by long suffering farmers cutting their coffee trees for horticulture etc. Please review the long term chart below: http://www.mrci.com/pdf/kc.pdf
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,118 Location: Nairobi
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So a better bet would be for Co-op to hitch along for the ride with tea Farmers. Of course, the coffee deal is also good! Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/13/2006 Posts: 551 Location: Nairobi
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A Greek Tragedy is unfolding. Debt ridden developed nations are finding increasingly difficult to raise funds in the international debt markets. Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain (PIGS) as well as the Eastern European bloc have elisited downward revisions on their debt status and raised concerns on their budgets going forward. Increasing destabilisation of nation states will all the more lure investors into gold as a hedge. "The ongoing global financial and economic crisis has, in our opinion, exacerbated an underlying loss of competitiveness in the Greek economy," said the credit-rating agency. The country was placed on negative watch just days ago. The moves comes days after a €2.5bn (£2.2bn) debt sale by Greece that was entirely issued at short-term rates, much of it in three-month notes. Such an action is highly unusual for wealthy countries tapping the sovereign bond markets. It suggests that Athens fears that investors may be unwilling to purchase long-term bonds in the current climate....." Read more: http://www.telegraph.co....ades-sovereign-debt.html
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/13/2006 Posts: 551 Location: Nairobi
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The take home lesson from ex-Fed Chief Paul Volcker is "If you fail, fail. I'm not going to help you. Your stock is gone, creditors are at risk, but no one else is affected.". No wonder he's been sidelined post crisis as he would have left the over-the-counter derivatives laden investment and commercial banks fail. Wall Street's bedfellow Washington would have found that too unpalatable. "The former US Federal Reserve chairman told an audience that included some of the world's most senior financiers that their industry's "single most important" contribution in the last 25 years has been automatic telling machines, which he said had at least proved "useful". Echoing FSA chairman Lord Turner's comments that banks are "socially useless", Mr Volcker told delegates who had been discussing how to rebuild the financial system to "wake up". He said credit default swaps and collateralised debt obligations had taken the economy "right to the brink of disaster" and added that the economy had grown at "greater rates of speed" during the 1960s without such products...." Read more: http://www.telegraph.co....erivatives-industry.html
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/13/2006 Posts: 551 Location: Nairobi
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Where art thou green shoots? Stunted they may seem with President Obama calling for an extension of the stimulus package into next year. "Dec. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Moody’s Investors Service said the top debt ratings on the U.S. and the U.K. may “test the Aaa boundaries” because public finances are worsening in the wake of the global financial crisis. “The deterioration has been pretty severe,” said Pierre Cailleteau, managing director of sovereign risk at Moody’s, in a Bloomberg Television interview in London. “We expect a pretty strong policy response in the next couple of years in order to keep the debt in the Aaa range. We expect them to bend but not to break....” Read more: http://www.bloomberg.com...087&sid=ag5Azr1XuakI
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/13/2006 Posts: 551 Location: Nairobi
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Tin hats all round. The ratings agencies are on a downgrading frenzy. "Après l’Islande, le déluge Not to be outdone by its rivals at Fitch, who on Tuesday downgraded the sovereign rating of the Hellenic Republic of Greece, Standard & Poor’s on Wednesday revised its outlook on the Kingdom of Spain to negative from stable. From the statement: * We are revising the outlook on the Kingdom of Spain to negative from stable, and affirming the ‘AA+’ long-term and ‘A-1+’ short-term sovereign credit ratings. * Compared to our expectations when we lowered our rating on the sovereign in January 2009, we now believe that Spain will experience a more pronounced and persistent deterioration in its public finances and a more prolonged period of economic weakness versus its peers...." Read more: http://ftalphaville.ft.c...ins-outlook-to-negative/
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/13/2006 Posts: 551 Location: Nairobi
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Now that gold has paused for breath after a thundering run, a review of its long term fundamentals are in order. Please review the article below for that very purpose: "The problem with paper money is that governments can create unlimited amounts. This is what they have done throughout history and especially in the last 100 years and which has led to the total destruction of most currencies. Most people don’t even understand that their government makes their money worthless. Money printing gives them the illusion of being richer whilst all they have are pieces of paper with more zeros on them. But there is one currency that governments can’t print which is gold. Gold has been real money for almost 5,000 years and it is the only currency that has survived throughout history. Gold can’t be printed and no government controls it. Therefore gold will, over time, always reveal governments’ fraudulent actions in creating money out of thin air. And this is what we are experiencing currently. Gold is not going up. Instead gold is doing what it has always done, namely maintaining its value and purchasing power...." Read more: http://matterhornassetma...er-money-is-going-down/
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/13/2006 Posts: 551 Location: Nairobi
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HEDGE FUND'S ROASTING ON AN OPEN MARKET FIRE (The Christmas Song) WilliamBanzai7 Hedgefunds roasting on an open market fire Investors sure to get the hose Alpha carols being sung to the wealthy choir of the dumb And regulators dressed up like Eskimos Everybody knows the hedge hog turkeys and Madoff's ponzi scheme help to make the seasons blight SEC examiners with their eyes all aglow Will find it hard to sleep tonight They know that billions of losses are on the way The markets are loaded with cash cows for slaughter Its the Wall Street way And ev'ry wealthy grandmother's Child is gonna spy to see if Quants and X Wall Street traders really know how to fly And so, I'm offering this Simple phrase to investors from One to ninety-two Altho' it's been said many times Many ways Merry Redemptions to you
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/13/2006 Posts: 551 Location: Nairobi
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Uh oh! This can't be good. "ALBANY, N.Y. — Gov. David Paterson said Wednesday that New York has run out of cash and he's directing budget officials to reduce state aid payments to schools, local governments and nonprofit service providers until things improve. Speaking at the Museum of American Finance in Manhattan, Paterson said he'll probably get sued, but he won't let the state run out of money on his watch. "I am directing the Division of the Budget to limit payments so that we will have the cash to pay our debts at the end of December," Paterson said. "I will continue to withhold payments until this economy is leveled off." "Now New York has run out of cash," he said. "You can't spend money that you don't have...." Read more: http://www.huffingtonpos...rk-has-run_n_386403.html
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