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KQ 2008-9 Results
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VituVingiSana
#76 Posted : Friday, June 12, 2009 7:32:00 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,342
Location: Nairobi
@jammo - there are only two I know. GoK @ 23% and KLM @ 26%. No idea about NSSF.

Greedy when others are fearful,Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase WB
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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VituVingiSana
#77 Posted : Friday, June 12, 2009 7:37:00 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,342
Location: Nairobi
It was always 'hedging' for KQ. Basically to lock in prices rather than speculative gains. There are a number of derivatives they have used. I hope they provide more info in the Annual Report. They have got forward contracts,puts & calls (to form a collar).
**** Revaluation 'gains' depend on the future values expected which is dependent on oil prices.
**** Also what did they hedge? Jet Fuel or Oil... and these are NOT always in sync. Add different 'markets' i.e. Brent,WTI,etc...


Greedy when others are fearful,Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase WB
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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kizee
#78 Posted : Friday, June 12, 2009 7:44:00 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/9/2008
Posts: 537
all agreed...but what i dont get is why the asset is being categorized as a trading or available for sale asset
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Raheel
#79 Posted : Friday, June 12, 2009 9:42:00 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/8/2007
Posts: 10
@ Kizee,

I think VVS has already answered your question,it is the nature of the hedging instrument that makes it a trading or available for sale asset. The instrument is a derivative contract (future or option) that is tradeable on an exchange.

@ VVS,

I completely agree,there is total lack of disclosure on the hedge and treatment of MTM,unless we know what exactly is the nature of the hedge some serious questions remain,like you have pointed out,I reiterate:

1) How much of prevoius profit was windfall from hedge now that they have provided for the loss in the current P&L.

2) How much income have they already gained or loss reduced for current period from run up of crude price from 40 $ bbl to 72 $ today?

3) What is the correct operating margin for the airline even if fuel cost is budgeted at 110$ bbl?

Creates a lot of uncertainity on the way forward


Raheel
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kizee
#80 Posted : Friday, June 12, 2009 11:05:00 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/9/2008
Posts: 537
@ raheel...

has he reaaly answered me? heck if u buy a GOK bond which is nse traded,you do subcategorize it as either afs,htm or trading...same thing for a derivative...or any other financial instrument...the subcategoization depends on the purpose for which the asset was aquired...whether or not its traded is not an issue,OTC financial assets-the most famous perhaps being mortgage backed securities...also do require marking to market...or to use a risk managemnt time...marking to model....liquidity of the asset or otherwise is not the issue...a hedge in my view is an HTM asset...the only time when u are banned from holdin an HTM book is when u sell an asset categorized as such...and even then the ban only lasts for 2 years(i think)....
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slicky d
#81 Posted : Friday, June 12, 2009 12:05:00 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 10/6/2006
Posts: 22
Ok guys hatujisaidie na hi post. lets wait for the annual report and look at what the notes say. we gained from fuel hedges earlier we are being punished now. Life is about hedging. all banks have hedge on forex. lets get moving when we see the report we make better analysis.

Did we all note that all listed companies post their balance sheet,change in equity and cash flow statements except KQ. How can we make sure that we get this. someone with connection at NSE should ask them to ensure that they post these details.



The stock market is not for the faint hearted. The US market has had over 50 market corrections in 70 years
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slicky d
#82 Posted : Friday, June 12, 2009 12:06:00 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 10/6/2006
Posts: 22
Ok guys hatujisaidie na hi post. lets wait for the annual report and look at what the notes say. we gained from fuel hedges earlier we are being punished now. Life is about hedging. all banks have hedge on forex. lets get moving when we see the report we make better analysis.

Did we all note that all listed companies post their balance sheet,change in equity and cash flow statements except KQ. How can we make sure that we get this. someone with connection at NSE should ask them to ensure that they post these details.



The stock market is not for the faint hearted. The US market has had over 50 market corrections in 70 years
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kizee
#83 Posted : Friday, June 12, 2009 2:08:00 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/9/2008
Posts: 537
dude!....banks trade fx and actualy sell hedges yes some hedge but i have never come across a sitution when say an FX forward sale was revalued unless if said sale was for spec purposes...heck i work as a trader in a bank and i have some exposure albeit basic to financial assets..im just curious as to wat hapend to KQ thats all...sori guys if im flogin a dead horse......only reason why im askin mob questions is becoz VVS is one realy knowledgable guy when it comes to financial instruments....
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VituVingiSana
#84 Posted : Friday, June 12, 2009 5:45:00 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,342
Location: Nairobi
The assets are categorized by the 'owner' (which leads to cooking. Sometimes.) but there are guidelines. KQ's hedges are varied. They may (probably) be held to maturity.
* You are comparing apples to oranges. A GoK Bond has a PAYOFF that is 'guaranteed'. Not so a forward contract. Not so a Put or Call. Thus a GoK Bond can be HTM.
** A forward contract is difficult to value if categorized as HTM for a ultra-volatile (high-beta) commodity like oil. Best treatment is MTM.
*** A purchase of a Call or Put can be HTM but not for accounting purposes or prudence. The value can plummet to zero at any time. Also were they European or American options?

**** Bottomline: We need to pressure KQ to give us ADEQUATE disclosures!

Greedy when others are fearful,Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase WB
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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VituVingiSana
#85 Posted : Monday, June 22, 2009 8:10:00 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,342
Location: Nairobi
KQ has shaken off the blues & is up 50% from the low of 17.60 after the results were announced.

Greedy when others are fearful,Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase WB
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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VituVingiSana
#86 Posted : Monday, June 22, 2009 8:46:00 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,342
Location: Nairobi
Why does SK show 25.80 as the price when you can't trade at that price on the NSE. The price is either 25.75 or 26.00 but not 25.80.

Greedy when others are fearful,Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase WB
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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The General
#87 Posted : Tuesday, June 30, 2009 7:25:00 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 6/3/2006
Posts: 553


KQ to set up fresh produce facility

The thicker the thigh the sweeter the pie.
The thicker the thigh the sweeter the pie.
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Pierce
#88 Posted : Thursday, October 22, 2009 8:06:00 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/16/2009
Posts: 1,464
This is really interesting,from Kshs 20 to Kshs 24 in a record 10 days!!

20% increase sounds good in such record time
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cnn
#89 Posted : Thursday, October 22, 2009 8:49:00 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 6/17/2009
Posts: 1,627
@ pierce
slowly simmering,may just boil! Africa imprint.

see it through my lens?
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Hi-Lo
#90 Posted : Thursday, October 22, 2009 11:00:00 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 10/5/2007
Posts: 91
...I think it's the crude price...today it's at 81...but it was 44 last Mar when they did the a/c with 7.5bn hedge losses. They've recovered more than 50% of the 7.5bn [a cool 4bn!!]...and with the grace of God...who knows...maybe crude strikes the magic no. 108...at which point even SCOM profits will will be peanuts comparatively...

Playing the stock market without insider info...is like buying a cow in the moonlight.
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