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chiaroscuro		#51 Posted : Friday, September 06, 2019 4:21:58 PM
Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/2/2012 Posts: 1,134 Location: Nairobi		kawi254 wrote: Extraterrestrial wrote: kawi254 wrote: Ericsson wrote: Extraterrestrial wrote: Kenya Power seeking upward tariff review, which EPRA is most likely to reject. https://www.businessdail...1294-np08e7z/index.html KPLC wants the lifeline tariff to be done away with Lifeline tariff was political Uhurunomics. Kenya Power is selling power below cost...not sustainable. Actually the net cost per unit in FY17/18 was Sh6.06. It is the cost of operations that is ballooning and which they are desperately trying to cover. The Feed In Tariff (FiT) (US $/Kwh) for project above 10MW: Hydro = 0.0825 (Kengen is paid much less for Hydro) Wind = 0.11 Geothermal = 0.088 With Geothermal making bulk of power produced at an average of KES 9/Kwh + Transmission costs + KPLC margin + Expensive thermal costs (thermal PPAs not public) then i doubt net cost can be below KES 10/Kwh . In-fact the bulk power purchased by large industries/consumers at around KES 8/Kwh is also below cost. Looks like the middle class subsidize everyone i.e large manufactures + Lifeline consumers. Simple math: Pick up latest KPLC annual report [https://www.kplc.co.ke/AR2018/KPLC%20Annual%20Report%2017_12_2018_Wed.pdf]. Check for total units sold. Check for power purchase costs. Divide. SH84bn / 7.9bn kWh = Sh10.63/kWh It's really that simple!
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Extraterrestrial		#52 Posted : Friday, September 06, 2019 4:35:17 PM
Rank: Member Joined: 11/17/2018 Posts: 173 Location: Mars		chiaroscuro wrote: kawi254 wrote: Extraterrestrial wrote: kawi254 wrote: Ericsson wrote: Extraterrestrial wrote: Kenya Power seeking upward tariff review, which EPRA is most likely to reject. https://www.businessdail...1294-np08e7z/index.html KPLC wants the lifeline tariff to be done away with Lifeline tariff was political Uhurunomics. Kenya Power is selling power below cost...not sustainable. Actually the net cost per unit in FY17/18 was Sh6.06. It is the cost of operations that is ballooning and which they are desperately trying to cover. The Feed In Tariff (FiT) (US $/Kwh) for project above 10MW: Hydro = 0.0825 (Kengen is paid much less for Hydro) Wind = 0.11 Geothermal = 0.088 With Geothermal making bulk of power produced at an average of KES 9/Kwh + Transmission costs + KPLC margin + Expensive thermal costs (thermal PPAs not public) then i doubt net cost can be below KES 10/Kwh . In-fact the bulk power purchased by large industries/consumers at around KES 8/Kwh is also below cost. Looks like the middle class subsidize everyone i.e large manufactures + Lifeline consumers. Simple math: Pick up latest KPLC annual report [https://www.kplc.co.ke/AR2018/KPLC%20Annual%20Report%2017_12_2018_Wed.pdf]. Check for total units sold. Check for power purchase costs. Divide. SH84bn / 7.9bn kWh = Sh10.63/kWh It's really that simple! Use the figure for non-fuel costs.
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kawi254		#53 Posted : Friday, September 06, 2019 7:43:36 PM
Rank: Member Joined: 2/20/2015 Posts: 468 Location: Nairobi		Extraterrestrial wrote: chiaroscuro wrote: kawi254 wrote: Extraterrestrial wrote: kawi254 wrote: Ericsson wrote: Extraterrestrial wrote: Kenya Power seeking upward tariff review, which EPRA is most likely to reject. https://www.businessdail...1294-np08e7z/index.html KPLC wants the lifeline tariff to be done away with Lifeline tariff was political Uhurunomics. Kenya Power is selling power below cost...not sustainable. Actually the net cost per unit in FY17/18 was Sh6.06. It is the cost of operations that is ballooning and which they are desperately trying to cover. The Feed In Tariff (FiT) (US $/Kwh) for project above 10MW: Hydro = 0.0825 (Kengen is paid much less for Hydro) Wind = 0.11 Geothermal = 0.088 With Geothermal making bulk of power produced at an average of KES 9/Kwh + Transmission costs + KPLC margin + Expensive thermal costs (thermal PPAs not public) then i doubt net cost can be below KES 10/Kwh . In-fact the bulk power purchased by large industries/consumers at around KES 8/Kwh is also below cost. Looks like the middle class subsidize everyone i.e large manufactures + Lifeline consumers. Simple math: Pick up latest KPLC annual report [https://www.kplc.co.ke/AR2018/KPLC%20Annual%20Report%2017_12_2018_Wed.pdf]. Check for total units sold. Check for power purchase costs. Divide. SH84bn / 7.9bn kWh = Sh10.63/kWh It's really that simple! Use the figure for non-fuel costs. Small correction. Units sold is less power transmission losses. Correct figure is (Power Purchase costs/Units bought) KShs 84.1 bn / 9,962 GWh = Sh8.44/kWh <-- Note 7. Power Purchase costs Using Non-fuel costs in 2018 for OrPower 4 Inc (geothermal) who don't have a fuel cost part. Power Purchase cost/Units bought: KShs 11,438,108,000 /1,185 Gwh = KShs 9.65/Kwh Point is KPLC Power Purchase costs have increased. While in 2018 cheap Hydro will subsidize their cost in 2019 there is a big bump of 310MW from LTWP at around Sh 11/Kwh + Ketraco delays penalties in connecting LTWP + increased thermal due to reduced hydrology in 2019 (failed rains). The money has to come from somewhere. If GoK does not plug in to subsidize Lifeline + industries KPLC is not sustainable.
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Extraterrestrial		#54 Posted : Friday, September 06, 2019 9:45:11 PM
Rank: Member Joined: 11/17/2018 Posts: 173 Location: Mars		kawi254 wrote: Extraterrestrial wrote: chiaroscuro wrote: kawi254 wrote: Extraterrestrial wrote: kawi254 wrote: Ericsson wrote: Extraterrestrial wrote: Kenya Power seeking upward tariff review, which EPRA is most likely to reject. https://www.businessdail...1294-np08e7z/index.html KPLC wants the lifeline tariff to be done away with Lifeline tariff was political Uhurunomics. Kenya Power is selling power below cost...not sustainable. Actually the net cost per unit in FY17/18 was Sh6.06. It is the cost of operations that is ballooning and which they are desperately trying to cover. The Feed In Tariff (FiT) (US $/Kwh) for project above 10MW: Hydro = 0.0825 (Kengen is paid much less for Hydro) Wind = 0.11 Geothermal = 0.088 With Geothermal making bulk of power produced at an average of KES 9/Kwh + Transmission costs + KPLC margin + Expensive thermal costs (thermal PPAs not public) then i doubt net cost can be below KES 10/Kwh . In-fact the bulk power purchased by large industries/consumers at around KES 8/Kwh is also below cost. Looks like the middle class subsidize everyone i.e large manufactures + Lifeline consumers. Simple math: Pick up latest KPLC annual report [https://www.kplc.co.ke/AR2018/KPLC%20Annual%20Report%2017_12_2018_Wed.pdf]. Check for total units sold. Check for power purchase costs. Divide. SH84bn / 7.9bn kWh = Sh10.63/kWh[/ It's really that simple! Use the figure for non-fuel costs. Small correction. Units sold is less power transmission losses. Correct figure is (Power Purchase costs/Units bought) KShs 84.1 bn / 9,962 GWh = Sh8.44/kWh <-- Note 7. Power Purchase costs Using Non-fuel costs in 2018 for OrPower 4 Inc (geothermal) who don't have a fuel cost part. [b]Power Purchase cost/Units bought: KShs 11,438,108,000 /1,185 Gwh = KShs 9.65/Kwh Point is KPLC Power Purchase costs have increased. While in 2018 cheap Hydro will subsidize their cost in 2019 there is a big bump of 310MW from LTWP at around Sh 11/Kwh + Ketraco delays penalties in connecting LTWP + increased thermal due to reduced hydrology in 2019 (failed rains). The money has to come from somewhere. If GoK does not plug in to subsidize Lifeline + industries KPLC is not sustainable. You are using an incorrect figure to calculate the cost per unit. I reiterate; use the non-fuel costs. This is seperately stated in the main income statement (not the notes).
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kawi254		#55 Posted : Friday, September 06, 2019 9:52:21 PM
Rank: Member Joined: 2/20/2015 Posts: 468 Location: Nairobi		Extraterrestrial wrote: kawi254 wrote: Extraterrestrial wrote: chiaroscuro wrote: kawi254 wrote: Extraterrestrial wrote: kawi254 wrote: Ericsson wrote: Extraterrestrial wrote: Kenya Power seeking upward tariff review, which EPRA is most likely to reject. https://www.businessdail...1294-np08e7z/index.html KPLC wants the lifeline tariff to be done away with Lifeline tariff was political Uhurunomics. Kenya Power is selling power below cost...not sustainable. Actually the net cost per unit in FY17/18 was Sh6.06. It is the cost of operations that is ballooning and which they are desperately trying to cover. The Feed In Tariff (FiT) (US $/Kwh) for project above 10MW: Hydro = 0.0825 (Kengen is paid much less for Hydro) Wind = 0.11 Geothermal = 0.088 With Geothermal making bulk of power produced at an average of KES 9/Kwh + Transmission costs + KPLC margin + Expensive thermal costs (thermal PPAs not public) then i doubt net cost can be below KES 10/Kwh . In-fact the bulk power purchased by large industries/consumers at around KES 8/Kwh is also below cost. Looks like the middle class subsidize everyone i.e large manufactures + Lifeline consumers. Simple math: Pick up latest KPLC annual report [https://www.kplc.co.ke/AR2018/KPLC%20Annual%20Report%2017_12_2018_Wed.pdf]. Check for total units sold. Check for power purchase costs. Divide. SH84bn / 7.9bn kWh = Sh10.63/kWh[/ It's really that simple! Use the figure for non-fuel costs. Small correction. Units sold is less power transmission losses. Correct figure is (Power Purchase costs/Units bought) KShs 84.1 bn / 9,962 GWh = Sh8.44/kWh <-- Note 7. Power Purchase costs Using Non-fuel costs in 2018 for OrPower 4 Inc (geothermal) who don't have a fuel cost part. [b]Power Purchase cost/Units bought: KShs 11,438,108,000 /1,185 Gwh = KShs 9.65/Kwh Point is KPLC Power Purchase costs have increased. While in 2018 cheap Hydro will subsidize their cost in 2019 there is a big bump of 310MW from LTWP at around Sh 11/Kwh + Ketraco delays penalties in connecting LTWP + increased thermal due to reduced hydrology in 2019 (failed rains). The money has to come from somewhere. If GoK does not plug in to subsidize Lifeline + industries KPLC is not sustainable. You are using an incorrect figure to calculate the cost per unit. I reiterate; use the non-fuel costs. This is seperately stated in the main income statement (not the notes). iishe. I am no expert in calculating the figures and the figures are not the issue. The issue is KPLC Power Purchase are up with no corresponding increase in power selling price so profits will dip. They can reduce expenses but what are the chances they will?
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Superprime1		#56 Posted : Sunday, September 08, 2019 3:26:09 PM
Rank: Member Joined: 5/2/2018 Posts: 267		@KaunganaDodo When are full year results out and what should we anticipate on this one? Last time you were quite accurate...
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KaunganaDoDo		#57 Posted : Monday, September 09, 2019 10:27:49 AM
Rank: Member Joined: 8/6/2018 Posts: 299		Superprime1 wrote: @KaunganaDodo When are full year results out and what should we anticipate on this one? Last time you were quite accurate... we can start with the known knowns first, which is that "there will be no Dividends Declared this year" The other known unknowns and other Unknown Unknowns will be Known at day break. Its still midnight,unknown unknown phantom figures are walking around the compounds looking for Creatures crawl in search of blood. I would rather Pee inside here than open the midnight door in search of the known pit latrine hidden in the known darkness where unknown unknown creatures crawl.
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Extraterrestrial		#58 Posted : Monday, September 09, 2019 12:23:18 PM
Rank: Member Joined: 11/17/2018 Posts: 173 Location: Mars		KaunganaDoDo wrote: Superprime1 wrote: @KaunganaDodo When are full year results out and what should we anticipate on this one? Last time you were quite accurate... we can start with the known knowns first, which is that "there will be no Dividends Declared this year" The other known unknowns and other Unknown Unknowns will be Known at day break. Its still midnight,unknown unknown phantom figures are walking around the compounds looking for Creatures crawl in search of blood. I would rather Pee inside here than open the midnight door in search of the known pit latrine hidden in the known darkness where unknown unknown creatures crawl. Brilliant @KuanganaDodo
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Superprime1		#59 Posted : Monday, September 09, 2019 10:35:48 PM
Rank: Member Joined: 5/2/2018 Posts: 267		KaunganaDoDo wrote: Superprime1 wrote: @KaunganaDodo When are full year results out and what should we anticipate on this one? Last time you were quite accurate... we can start with the known knowns first, which is that "there will be no Dividends Declared this year" The other known unknowns and other Unknown Unknowns will be Known at day break. Its still midnight,unknown unknown phantom figures are walking around the compounds looking for Creatures crawl in search of blood. I would rather Pee inside here than open the midnight door in search of the known pit latrine hidden in the known darkness where unknown unknown creatures crawl. Damn, it's that bad!
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Superprime1		#60 Posted : Monday, September 09, 2019 10:39:01 PM
Rank: Member Joined: 5/2/2018 Posts: 267		KaunganaDoDo wrote: Superprime1 wrote: @KaunganaDodo When are full year results out and what should we anticipate on this one? Last time you were quite accurate... we can start with the known knowns first, which is that "there will be no Dividends Declared this year" The other known unknowns and other Unknown Unknowns will be Known at day break. Its still midnight,unknown unknown phantom figures are walking around the compounds looking for Creatures crawl in search of blood. I would rather Pee inside here than open the midnight door in search of the known pit latrine hidden in the known darkness where unknown unknown creatures crawl. Damn, it's that bad!
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