There is a lesson to be learnt.

I use an investment process.
I run the visible variables through it. The numbers from the Annual Report. And other data from other published sources. And my assumptions gleaned from experience, newspapers, visits, etc.

I have tweaked my process since ARM but that doesn't mean the process was fundamentally flawed. After all it also led to KK.
And has done so to KenRe, Unga and Centum. I am quite comfortable with these.

"Long ago, Ben Graham taught me that 'Price is what you pay; value is what you get.' Whether we're talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down." - Warren Buffett

No, I do NOT get every call right. I just need to get a few (significant/core) calls right. Someone who claims to be 100% right should be a billionaire many times over. So if I start waxing lyrical about getting ALL my calls right, please call me out.

Data I used included:
- CDC investing $50mn into ARM which, apparently, they did not. The irony is that 2 years later that's what NCC/Devki is paying for ALL of ARM's Kenyan assets.
- The NAV. I did apply a significant discount.
- The economy. There was a light at the end of the tunnel but the tunnel, as it turned out, was very long.
- Change in the board and management was imminent. There were new directors and a new Chairman ready to go. Also a new CEO.

The process also takes into account the type of investment. I do not go from "nothing to Core" but usually build it up over time.
From nothing to Tier 3 - Total Tier 3 is less than 5% of my portfolio
Tier 3 to Tier 2 - Learning more about the firm/s. Going to AGMs. Reading a lot more. They may get stuck in limbo here. I need to learn when to sell.
Tier 2 to Core - That's where I have what some call "conviction"

Then I wait and monitor. This is where it gets boring but I am old so I don't want too much excitement. There may be good and bad quarters/halves. But there is little going on except making steady gains. The firms chug along. Monitoring and Patience are key. And even then one may get it wrong since complacency may set in.

I think the announcement that CDC would invest $50mn was the most important factor but until the money is disbursed do not believe it. This is an IMPORTANT lesson I have learnt.

Surely, management and administrators should be courteous enough and send shareholders a circular that provides details of this deal plus other disclosures(e.g., what happens to Tanzania assets and how much are they worth etc). We cannot be relying on media who provide scanty information

In that case the board should provide more information

Minority shareholders with meaningless shares.. It's just the way it is. Poleni

1. Only local lenders became shareholders. KQ is still indebted to international lenders like American EXIM Bank. GoK had to issue new guarantees to the international lenders. If KQ doesn't pay, the international lenders will just seize the leased assets (planes) wherever they will be. Easier now since KQ flies to the US.

2. Paunrana and CDC did the right. If a monkey is dead, leave it for the vultures. You might salvage a few bones after the vultures are done. Its the essence of insolvency/ bankruptcy protection laws. GoK should follow suit and let KQ die. KLM was sensible not to pump more capital into a dead monkey.