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Market Direction with Election
Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,701 Location: NAIROBI
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Barclays bank heading past sh.12 per share Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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Do not be suckered into the current rally. If u bought before when prices were low fine. When excitement dies down most these prices will reset before the next true rise The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/30/2007 Posts: 1,558 Location: Nairobi
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Aguytrying wrote:Do not be suckered into the current rally. If u bought before when prices were low fine. When excitement dies down most these prices will reset before the next true rise These prices are nothing but local money coming back into the market after the polls. I remember posting here somewhere that lots of money on the sidelines standing by to return. In the case of simba at 45.00 the PE is still 7.something. Still lots of value here. I got in early at 26/- for the initial lot but also have kept buying upto 37.75-38 levels so my average is 31/- still worth it at these prices IMHO. I know the cash has not fully come into the market yet until everything gets completely settled, and if u are waiting for that, know that everything will settle eventually but that may be too late for you to make an entry.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,530 Location: nairobi
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Horton wrote:Aguytrying wrote:Do not be suckered into the current rally. If u bought before when prices were low fine. When excitement dies down most these prices will reset before the next true rise These prices are nothing but local money coming back into the market after the polls. I remember posting here somewhere that lots of money on the sidelines standing by to return. In the case of simba at 45.00 the PE is still 7.something. Still lots of value here. I got in early at 26/- for the initial lot but also have kept buying upto 37.75-38 levels so my average is 31/- still worth it at these prices IMHO. I know the cash has not fully come into the market yet until everything gets completely settled, and if u are waiting for that, know that everything will settle eventually but that may be too late for you to make an entry. Good times
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 985 Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
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Ericsson wrote:heri wrote:Metasploit wrote:Metasploit wrote:The market is coiling my eyes on Saf,KCB and CIC @metasploit cic has rallied from a low of 3.10 to 5.65 (82%) You think it still has some rally left? Niliwashow about CIC wengine wakaita monkey. Destination ni 6 Watching the volumes for CIC..6.15 traded with relative good volumes My point of interest for CIC are 5.50,6 and 6.50 7.50-8 will be a tough resistance for KCB ,45 is an interesting point and i will be watching for volumes at and beyond this point for SAF 25 is a very interesting point and am watching for volumes as it is flirting at 25-25.50. Banking stocks and insurance will for sure set new equilibrium last Friday play at the NSE was 90% foreign,intraday play today is purely local
βThe pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.β
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,530 Location: nairobi
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obiero wrote:mamilli wrote:mlennyma wrote:sparkly wrote:Trafalgar78 wrote:What happens after August 8? Do I collect my profits for the next 1 week and then buy after the election? My average returns since January are 45%. Was thinking its time to get out but what do other investors think.
Thanks.
These are the potential outcomes after the election: 1. Elections are peaceful. Jubilee wins per the oponion polls - Market has factored in this possibility hence the sharp rise this year. No major change expected in market. 2. NASA wins elections are peacefull - Uncertainty on new government policies towards investments leading to a fall in market. 3. Either side wins, elections are violent - Market collapses. In conclusion 1/3 the market doesn't change, 2/3 the market falls. You are better off taking your 45% profits. I also think take your 45% and if things are smooth sacrifice 10% of this 45% for commission and price appreciation to buy back @Trafalgar78,you could as well recoup your principal and leave the 45% gains.As for me,am all in(balls included) if the market capitulates,nasema "sande yesu" alafu naziokota on the cheap. That's a sober approach Here we are.. Wale wa sidelines mkule huu
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,530 Location: nairobi
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obiero wrote:bird_man wrote:bartum wrote:Trafalgar78 wrote:What happens after August 8? Do I collect my profits for the next 1 week and then buy after the election? My average returns since January are 45%. Was thinking its time to get out but what do other investors think.
Thanks.
Will election be rigged first Of course it will be.Sell and buy after. Rather stay put.. Ya election liwe liwalo. NSE isn't closing It's never wise to gauge the NSE with a political eye. For the umpteenth time, the market has defied election sentiment
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 985 Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
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Horton wrote:Aguytrying wrote:Do not be suckered into the current rally. If u bought before when prices were low fine. When excitement dies down most these prices will reset before the next true rise These prices are nothing but local money coming back into the market after the polls. I remember posting here somewhere that lots of money on the sidelines standing by to return. In the case of simba at 45.00 the PE is still 7.something. Still lots of value here. I got in early at 26/- for the initial lot but also have kept buying upto 37.75-38 levels so my average is 31/- still worth it at these prices IMHO. I know the cash has not fully come into the market yet until everything gets completely settled, and if u are waiting for that, know that everything will settle eventually but that may be too late for you to make an entry. On Friday August 11th the Equity turnover was ksh 1,410,872,078 with 86% foreign participation
βThe pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.β
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 985 Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
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Aguytrying wrote:Do not be suckered into the current rally. If u bought before when prices were low fine. When excitement dies down most these prices will reset before the next true rise Agreed.But new support prices will be set eg i expect 42-44 to be the new support for KCB
βThe pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.β
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/14/2010 Posts: 806 Location: Nairobi
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Was once 'joking' that with the kind of money being spent on elections...some of it is bound to find its way into the stock exchange. And further, to continue with the 'joke'...its possible some funding raised for elections was not spent but tucked away....and now coming out in the stock exchange.
Either way...am enjoying the ride up!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,530 Location: nairobi
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winston wrote:Was once 'joking' that with the kind of money being spent on elections...some of it is bound to find its way into the stock exchange. And further, to continue with the 'joke'...its possible some funding raised for elections was not spent but tucked away....and now coming out in the stock exchange.
Either way...am enjoying the ride up! The ride is sweet on this side too
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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Remember last year many were of the opinion that they will wait to buy stocks after elections. But stocks don't follow common logic most of the time. Same thing happened in 2012. Against crowd sentiments. I can hardly believe some of the gains I am making. KK almost 100% profit! The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
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Aguytrying wrote:Remember last year many were of the opinion that they will wait to buy stocks after elections. But stocks don't follow common logic most of the time. Same thing happened in 2012. Against crowd sentiments. I can hardly believe some of the gains I am making. KK almost 100% profit! at this rate I will be very rich than I expected "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/30/2007 Posts: 1,558 Location: Nairobi
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mlennyma wrote:Aguytrying wrote:Remember last year many were of the opinion that they will wait to buy stocks after elections. But stocks don't follow common logic most of the time. Same thing happened in 2012. Against crowd sentiments. I can hardly believe some of the gains I am making. KK almost 100% profit! at this rate I will be very rich than I expected Time to buy a porsche?! π€π€ππ
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
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Horton wrote:mlennyma wrote:Aguytrying wrote:Remember last year many were of the opinion that they will wait to buy stocks after elections. But stocks don't follow common logic most of the time. Same thing happened in 2012. Against crowd sentiments. I can hardly believe some of the gains I am making. KK almost 100% profit! at this rate I will be very rich than I expected Time to buy a porsche?! π€π€ππ mpaka nse 20 imejam to update today's bull "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,530 Location: nairobi
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mlennyma wrote:Horton wrote:mlennyma wrote:Aguytrying wrote:Remember last year many were of the opinion that they will wait to buy stocks after elections. But stocks don't follow common logic most of the time. Same thing happened in 2012. Against crowd sentiments. I can hardly believe some of the gains I am making. KK almost 100% profit! at this rate I will be very rich than I expected Time to buy a porsche?! π€π€ππ mpaka nse 20 imejam to update today's bull Lol. But caution still needs to be exercised. Volumes are of the vapor kind on some counters
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/9/2007 Posts: 13,095
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,530 Location: nairobi
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Wednesday shall be the truth bearer
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
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obiero wrote:Wednesday shall be the truth bearer the nse 20 was today up 99.96 points to stand at 4076.98 "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,118 Location: Nairobi
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Aguytrying wrote:Remember last year many were of the opinion that they will wait to buy stocks after elections. But stocks don't follow common logic most of the time. Same thing happened in 2012. Against crowd sentiments. I can hardly believe some of the gains I am making. KK almost 100% profit!  Unlike one who wanted us to buy KQ! Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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