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Market Direction with Election
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Ericsson
#101 Posted : Monday, August 14, 2017 10:56:28 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,798
Location: NAIROBI
Barclays bank heading past sh.12 per share
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Aguytrying
#102 Posted : Monday, August 14, 2017 11:18:30 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
Do not be suckered into the current rally. If u bought before when prices were low fine. When excitement dies down most these prices will reset before the next true rise
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Horton
#103 Posted : Monday, August 14, 2017 11:22:52 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/30/2007
Posts: 1,558
Location: Nairobi
Aguytrying wrote:
Do not be suckered into the current rally. If u bought before when prices were low fine. When excitement dies down most these prices will reset before the next true rise



These prices are nothing but local money coming back into the market after the polls. I remember posting here somewhere that lots of money on the sidelines standing by to return. In the case of simba at 45.00 the PE is still 7.something. Still lots of value here. I got in early at 26/- for the initial lot but also have kept buying upto 37.75-38 levels so my average is 31/- still worth it at these prices IMHO.

I know the cash has not fully come into the market yet until everything gets completely settled, and if u are waiting for that, know that everything will settle eventually but that may be too late for you to make an entry.
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obiero
#104 Posted : Monday, August 14, 2017 11:27:17 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,973
Location: nairobi
Horton wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
Do not be suckered into the current rally. If u bought before when prices were low fine. When excitement dies down most these prices will reset before the next true rise



These prices are nothing but local money coming back into the market after the polls. I remember posting here somewhere that lots of money on the sidelines standing by to return. In the case of simba at 45.00 the PE is still 7.something. Still lots of value here. I got in early at 26/- for the initial lot but also have kept buying upto 37.75-38 levels so my average is 31/- still worth it at these prices IMHO.

I know the cash has not fully come into the market yet until everything gets completely settled, and if u are waiting for that, know that everything will settle eventually but that may be too late for you to make an entry.

Good times

KQ ABP 4.48; MTN ABP 5.20
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Metasploit
#105 Posted : Monday, August 14, 2017 11:38:59 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 985
Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
Ericsson wrote:
heri wrote:
Metasploit wrote:
Metasploit wrote:
The market is coiling


my eyes on Saf,KCB and CIC



@metasploit cic has rallied from a low of 3.10 to 5.65 (82%)

You think it still has some rally left?


Niliwashow about CIC wengine wakaita monkey.
Destination ni 6


Watching the volumes for CIC..6.15 traded with relative good volumes

My point of interest for CIC are 5.50,6 and 6.50

7.50-8 will be a tough resistance

for KCB ,45 is an interesting point and i will be watching for volumes at and beyond this point

for SAF 25 is a very interesting point and am watching for volumes as it is flirting at 25-25.50.

Banking stocks and insurance will for sure set new equilibrium

last Friday play at the NSE was 90% foreign,intraday play today is purely local


β€œThe pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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obiero
#106 Posted : Monday, August 14, 2017 11:39:06 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,973
Location: nairobi
obiero wrote:
mamilli wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
sparkly wrote:
Trafalgar78 wrote:
What happens after August 8? Do I collect my profits for the next 1 week and then buy after the election? My average returns since January are 45%. Was thinking its time to get out but what do other investors think.

Thanks.


These are the potential outcomes after the election:
1. Elections are peaceful. Jubilee wins per the oponion polls - Market has factored in this possibility hence the sharp rise this year. No major change expected in market.
2. NASA wins elections are peacefull - Uncertainty on new government policies towards investments leading to a fall in market.
3. Either side wins, elections are violent - Market collapses.

In conclusion 1/3 the market doesn't change, 2/3 the market falls. You are better off taking your 45% profits.

I also think take your 45% and if things are smooth sacrifice 10% of this 45% for commission and price appreciation to buy back


@Trafalgar78,you could as well recoup your principal and leave the 45% gains.As for me,am all in(balls included) if the market capitulates,nasema "sande yesu" alafu naziokota on the cheap.

That's a sober approach

Here we are.. Wale wa sidelines mkule huu

KQ ABP 4.48; MTN ABP 5.20
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obiero
#107 Posted : Monday, August 14, 2017 11:41:18 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,973
Location: nairobi
obiero wrote:
bird_man wrote:
bartum wrote:
Trafalgar78 wrote:
What happens after August 8? Do I collect my profits for the next 1 week and then buy after the election? My average returns since January are 45%. Was thinking its time to get out but what do other investors think.

Thanks.

Will election be rigged first

Of course it will be.Sell and buy after.

Rather stay put.. Ya election liwe liwalo. NSE isn't closing

It's never wise to gauge the NSE with a political eye. For the umpteenth time, the market has defied election sentiment

KQ ABP 4.48; MTN ABP 5.20
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Metasploit
#108 Posted : Monday, August 14, 2017 11:41:52 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 985
Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
Horton wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
Do not be suckered into the current rally. If u bought before when prices were low fine. When excitement dies down most these prices will reset before the next true rise



These prices are nothing but local money coming back into the market after the polls. I remember posting here somewhere that lots of money on the sidelines standing by to return. In the case of simba at 45.00 the PE is still 7.something. Still lots of value here. I got in early at 26/- for the initial lot but also have kept buying upto 37.75-38 levels so my average is 31/- still worth it at these prices IMHO.

I know the cash has not fully come into the market yet until everything gets completely settled, and if u are waiting for that, know that everything will settle eventually but that may be too late for you to make an entry.


On Friday August 11th the Equity turnover was ksh 1,410,872,078 with 86% foreign participation

β€œThe pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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Metasploit
#109 Posted : Monday, August 14, 2017 11:44:06 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 985
Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
Aguytrying wrote:
Do not be suckered into the current rally. If u bought before when prices were low fine. When excitement dies down most these prices will reset before the next true rise


Agreed.But new support prices will be set eg i expect 42-44 to be the new support for KCB

β€œThe pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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winston
#110 Posted : Monday, August 14, 2017 2:45:21 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/14/2010
Posts: 806
Location: Nairobi
Was once 'joking' that with the kind of money being spent on elections...some of it is bound to find its way into the stock exchange. And further, to continue with the 'joke'...its possible some funding raised for elections was not spent but tucked away....and now coming out in the stock exchange.

Either way...am enjoying the ride up!
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obiero
#111 Posted : Monday, August 14, 2017 4:45:06 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,973
Location: nairobi
winston wrote:
Was once 'joking' that with the kind of money being spent on elections...some of it is bound to find its way into the stock exchange. And further, to continue with the 'joke'...its possible some funding raised for elections was not spent but tucked away....and now coming out in the stock exchange.

Either way...am enjoying the ride up!

The ride is sweet on this side too

KQ ABP 4.48; MTN ABP 5.20
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Aguytrying
#112 Posted : Monday, August 14, 2017 6:23:28 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
Remember last year many were of the opinion that they will wait to buy stocks after elections. But stocks don't follow common logic most of the time. Same thing happened in 2012. Against crowd sentiments. I can hardly believe some of the gains I am making. KK almost 100% profit!
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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mlennyma
#113 Posted : Monday, August 14, 2017 7:17:04 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,192
Location: nairobi
Aguytrying wrote:
Remember last year many were of the opinion that they will wait to buy stocks after elections. But stocks don't follow common logic most of the time. Same thing happened in 2012. Against crowd sentiments. I can hardly believe some of the gains I am making. KK almost 100% profit!

at this rate I will be very rich than I expected
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Horton
#114 Posted : Monday, August 14, 2017 7:19:09 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/30/2007
Posts: 1,558
Location: Nairobi
mlennyma wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
Remember last year many were of the opinion that they will wait to buy stocks after elections. But stocks don't follow common logic most of the time. Same thing happened in 2012. Against crowd sentiments. I can hardly believe some of the gains I am making. KK almost 100% profit!

at this rate I will be very rich than I expected



Time to buy a porsche?! πŸ€”πŸ€”πŸ˜†πŸ˜†
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mlennyma
#115 Posted : Monday, August 14, 2017 7:27:39 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,192
Location: nairobi
Horton wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
Remember last year many were of the opinion that they will wait to buy stocks after elections. But stocks don't follow common logic most of the time. Same thing happened in 2012. Against crowd sentiments. I can hardly believe some of the gains I am making. KK almost 100% profit!

at this rate I will be very rich than I expected



Time to buy a porsche?! πŸ€”πŸ€”πŸ˜†πŸ˜†

mpaka nse 20 imejam to update today's bull
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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obiero
#116 Posted : Monday, August 14, 2017 7:30:35 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,973
Location: nairobi
mlennyma wrote:
Horton wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
Remember last year many were of the opinion that they will wait to buy stocks after elections. But stocks don't follow common logic most of the time. Same thing happened in 2012. Against crowd sentiments. I can hardly believe some of the gains I am making. KK almost 100% profit!

at this rate I will be very rich than I expected



Time to buy a porsche?! πŸ€”πŸ€”πŸ˜†πŸ˜†

mpaka nse 20 imejam to update today's bull

Lol. But caution still needs to be exercised. Volumes are of the vapor kind on some counters

KQ ABP 4.48; MTN ABP 5.20
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washiku
#117 Posted : Monday, August 14, 2017 7:55:35 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/9/2007
Posts: 13,095
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obiero
#118 Posted : Monday, August 14, 2017 8:05:17 PM
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Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,973
Location: nairobi
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mlennyma
#119 Posted : Monday, August 14, 2017 8:20:56 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,192
Location: nairobi
obiero wrote:
washiku wrote:
Kenya's main stock index rose 2.51 per cent on Monday to a 14-month high, building on gains last week as investors welcomed the re-election of President Uhuru Kenyatta.

Wednesday shall be the truth bearer

the nse 20 was today up 99.96 points to stand at 4076.98
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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VituVingiSana
#120 Posted : Monday, August 14, 2017 10:34:45 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,265
Location: Nairobi
Aguytrying wrote:
Remember last year many were of the opinion that they will wait to buy stocks after elections. But stocks don't follow common logic most of the time. Same thing happened in 2012. Against crowd sentiments. I can hardly believe some of the gains I am making. KK almost 100% profit!

Applause Applause Applause Unlike one who wanted us to buy KQ!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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