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How I'm surviving the brutal NSE bear run

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Muthawamunene		#51 Posted : Tuesday, December 11, 2018 6:58:13 PM
Rank: Member Joined: 1/3/2011 Posts: 264 Location: Nairobi		Ebenyo wrote: Muthawamunene wrote: I exited after the elections last year while still in the green. I came back in September 2018. I'm buying on a regular basis with some spare change picked up here and there. I was a speculator before my return, but now I'm going for dividend. Sticking to the blue chips. Trying to position myself for future cash flows. Appreciating the falling prices. Its indeed a buying time.bahati mbaya sina pesa ya kutosha.i could have gone on a buying spree. Just buy with what you can spare, or at least deposit with your broker regularly. I'm following some advice that I read right here on wazua; I did what analysis I could on these stocks. NBV, PE, Div yields, cash flow ratios, etc. I established ranges that I think are fair value. When I get money and the price is within that range and the company has no adverse sentiment against it, I buy. Seriously, you will rarely get the perfect stock at the perfect time. And having deposits with your broker is like having your finger ready on the trigger; sometimes these stocks become drastically oversold; during these times you shoot one or two rounds, but not your whole clip. (Of course, have a financially strong broker) Seriously, DON'T BE GREEDY!!! Be boring. Make a trade that you've analysed for some days, not the one that came to mind when you saw the price when you sat at your computer. Those have been my lessons.
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Beler		#52 Posted : Thursday, January 24, 2019 12:28:39 PM
Rank: New-farer Joined: 1/15/2019 Posts: 31		It's alright. To maintain to take profit. We can't be greedy then we can hear and see what market tell us what they will do on the right hand side. Thank you for advice.
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muandiwambeu		#53 Posted : Sunday, June 09, 2019 8:25:07 PM
Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/28/2015 Posts: 1,247		muandiwambeu wrote: rwitre wrote: Ebenyo wrote: mv_ufanisi wrote: Ebenyo wrote: Fyatu wrote: I am managing my blood sugar pole pole reflecting on the years that have been. My entire portfolio is 50%(on average) in the negative with some counters at -ve 90% while others have been suspended with no communication at all(read Atlas Africa Industries). The winter has been long and dark. Money has been hard to come by as usual(economics 101: Money is scarce by nature). From the look of things, there is no respite in the near future. Books have been cooked and continue to be cooked with impunity. Profit warnings still persist. What baffles me is that counters that not so long did rights issues at a whooping 30bob are now trading at 4.50bob others whose rights were floated 19.5 bob are now selling for 3 bob.When i think of these wonders of the world that only happen in Kenya, i derive solace that i am not alone. There are many others nursing their sukari quietly and not sleeping at night. Sometimes i wish i just kept my money under the mattress and not attempted chasing the Kenyan dream. How are you surviving? @fyatu,dont regret.Stock market is one of the best place to grow wealth over time. Its true you are not alone.The bear is rough to everyone. Take heart and view it as a lesson.I first joined NSE through safaricom IPO of 2008.i was among the many green wanjikus who bought their first shares then.I also bought other shares till 2012 and sold everything at some losses. I came back in 2015 with determination to become wealthy through NSE. I started a fresh slowly and im growing with confidence as each day goes by. Over those years,i have learnt some few lessons: a) Put money in the stock money that you can afford to loose.The kind of money that if it drops from your pocket you will not stress up. These also involves money that you may not need anytime soon. b)Stock market requires patience.Im currently buying safaricom at 23 yet there was a time it was 2.50!.These means you need to be patient and give it time. c) Take time to do proper reasearch on any company before buying it.Avoid sentiments and herd mentality. @fyatu,i will encourage you to never give up. Im here to make wealth for me and my children and i will only strive with many challenges and obstacles.Cheer up and relax.avoid stress. I really don't agree with Ebenyo. Firstly, the stock market you read about by Warren Buffett and the likes is not the same stock market we have here. They are not the same "animal". Here we have very weak law enforcement, so there are a lot of leakages in shareholder wealth that go unpunished which creates a vicious cycle. So stock market in Kenya and the one in the US are not the same "thing." My strategy which works very well for me has been to put most of my money i.e. 90% in risk free treasury bills and bonds. Then I use the rest of the money i.e. 10% to set up or invest in very high risk new ventures. The 10% provides me with the potentially unlimited upside while the 90% provides me with a floor beyond which I cannot go under. The way to stay rich is to avoid being poor! One of the biggest hidden costs of the NSE is that it attracts a lot of smart people, who are over trained and over read for a market with so few investable companies. A lot of companies e.g. EAPC are riddled with corruption and the NSE doesn't really suit an emerging market with a high level of corruption. So it's a big waste that people full of American ideas about the stock market operate in the NSE where a lot of rules learnt from American investors make no sense! Your intellect, money and time is much better spent creating your own company in stead of fishing in the muddy polluted waters of the NSE. The rule of thumb is to diversify our investments to minimize risks.Putting all your eggs in one basket is risky.Putting 90% in one investment is risky.I prefer 45% 30% and 25% I have diversified between stocks and bonds for now and later when i grow strong i will put a percent in real estate. I like stocks because they beat inflation in the long run. Mimi niko 90% NSE, 8% Bitcoin, 2% waiting on bargains on either of the former. I will survive, donge? One more shakeout, and we are home dry. A bounce is in the whooping to relieve those need desperately to leave. Ashortened window. I believe many are on the gate eager to exit were their loss positions to slightly improve. That shall be the killer bullet, a 15% to 20% upside with a new level of cut loss position set in place, creates a further 40% to 50% downside. That incident will definitely rough the smart money the wrong way and action will have to be guranteed. A few crime like scenes will have to be recorded, definitely. My dream is valid. Time frames, upshot about two four years all in all. Triggers. Moderate macro and micro economics upshot Hiked taxition cold branket in spring Austerity budget climax Electioneering. The plunger. PEV / default by gok MRC/ constitutional Criss/ left winged talks. Current stage Cohabation with weaker ties, breedinging mistrust. Dreams. My best. MRC hitting the ground running. More on the nurseries. Soon they will whack whacky it. Dangerous times it is xwit my. ,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
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whiteowl		#54 Posted : Monday, June 10, 2019 7:35:11 AM
Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/16/2014 Posts: 1,420 Location: Bohemian Grove		I cashed out back in 2016 with exception of KK which I sold during the recent buyout.I'm not in a hurry to make a comeback n I'll watch from the sidelines till 2022.With the current state of the economy I've better chances staking my money in Sportpesa than going back to the NSE.This is going to be one long bear.
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My 2 cents		#55 Posted : Tuesday, December 07, 2021 5:26:41 PM
Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/2/2010 Posts: 1,090		Long after this bear market 2015 - to date, ends. We surely will remember it as the most brutal. Who would have thought 2020/21 would be worse than 2016? Will 2022 be the worst of them all? Given the election?
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VituVingiSana		#56 Posted : Tuesday, December 07, 2021 10:19:18 PM
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,349 Location: Nairobi		whiteowl wrote: I cashed out back in 2016 with exception of KK which I sold during the recent buyout.I'm not in a hurry to make a comeback n I'll watch from the sidelines till 2022.With the current state of the economy I've better chances staking my money in Sportpesa than going back to the NSE.This is going to be one long bear. Respect. I did not see this bear coming. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - *to paraphrase Warren Buffett*
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Ericsson		#57 Posted : Wednesday, December 08, 2021 7:34:17 AM
Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,808 Location: NAIROBI		My 2 cents wrote: Long after this bear market 2015 - to date, ends. We surely will remember it as the most brutal. Who would have thought 2020/21 would be worse than 2016? Will 2022 be the worst of them all? Given the election? Most companies are also worse off financially in 2021 as compared to 2016. Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Kausha		#58 Posted : Thursday, December 23, 2021 7:44:23 AM
Rank: Member Joined: 2/8/2007 Posts: 808		VituVingiSana wrote: whiteowl wrote: I cashed out back in 2016 with exception of KK which I sold during the recent buyout.I'm not in a hurry to make a comeback n I'll watch from the sidelines till 2022.With the current state of the economy I've better chances staking my money in Sportpesa than going back to the NSE.This is going to be one long bear. Respect. I did not see this bear coming. Left after the dead cat bounce of late 2017. There were signs though of the receding tide then. The economic head winds emanating from the poor private sector contribution to the overall country GDP growth were headed to NSE shores. It is clear that Public sector spending driven economic growth cannot generate enough tides to lift the entire economic ocean, it can only catalyze. It may register on the barometer but........The catalysis by the potential multiplier effect can only happen if foreign participation is controlled.
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Kausha		#59 Posted : Thursday, December 23, 2021 7:46:45 AM
Rank: Member Joined: 2/8/2007 Posts: 808		VituVingiSana wrote: whiteowl wrote: I cashed out back in 2016 with exception of KK which I sold during the recent buyout.I'm not in a hurry to make a comeback n I'll watch from the sidelines till 2022.With the current state of the economy I've better chances staking my money in Sportpesa than going back to the NSE.This is going to be one long bear. Respect. I did not see this bear coming.
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young		#60 Posted : Thursday, December 23, 2021 1:08:49 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,074 Location: Lagos, Nigeria		I am still with Nairobi bourse mainly for income (dividend). This is an average or moderate strategy. My portfolio is geared towards dividend giving counters, I am sure we all know them. I started this since 2013 in order to survive here. So far so well, so in the near term there is no plan to pool out of Nairobi bourse . The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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