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How to tell NSE has topped/Maxed out.
Rank: New-farer Joined: 7/3/2011 Posts: 30 Location: Nairobi
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 Fyatu wrote:wake me up when the slaughter begins hahaha I used to be a pig but I am now a bull-bear hybrid.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Aguytrying wrote:hisah wrote:Gatheuzi wrote:hisah wrote:TheGeek wrote:Metasploit wrote:@ Geek..very interesting picks.I like the volume spike on Scan Group.
Please have the RSI column of Scan group in the chart!!
Done. I've placed by bet on scan. Welcome aboard! I had loaded up in Feb then in March the EXP merger deal collapsed. That was a nasty surprise to my expectations as it was a major part of the investment equation. I've been selling since Mar 12. The illiquid conditions in this counter make selling or buying such a pain. There's blood on the streets. No one is saying it, but there's alot of blood letting going on... Like you had said, shares are taking a beating, Lets hope its a correction not the bear coming in Until that 4yr rising wedge is broken down, this is just a correction. A bear will be obvious since mpesa bank will also be heavily bent down during that phase.
USDKES > 100 is the line in the sand.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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murchr wrote:hisah wrote:Britam - 2yr chart shows strong rejection from the 40/- zone level. Chartists will tell that the coming correction will not be gentle...  Equity - 2yr chart says thin sim or no thin sim, upside is very limited!  Centum - 2yr chart. This is my favourite coz it's such a nice selloff bazooka cocktail which will leave serious hangover side-effects for late the party-goers. Best bull trap setup at the NSE so far!  I will be waiting for those lessons learnt tales. And they'll be plenty as the trapped realize the pretty shiny golden handcuffs just work like the normal handcuffs.  Interesting .... waiting for the lessons.  Sept 2014 "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,221 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:dunkang wrote:hisah wrote:I started the bottomed out thread on July 13, 2011 when the market was skidding with no brakes and felt endless. You are on the right track about topping out if you read the bottomed out 1st post. I have been bearish this market since Nov 2013 while the market has continued to meltup. I closely follow Mpesa bank and it has proved to be a reliable signal since its IPO debut. The likes of @mukiri has been throwing stones at me for being the party spoiler with my never appearing sizable market selloff. False prophesy etc NSE20 has the buying climax symptoms across many counters. When crappy stocks (very small caps) rally on endless price gaps on small volume, the market has run out of quality picks! @hisa, you have been singing this climax song for soooo looong, remember you sold SafCom at 5.80/-, didn't you? I dare say, lets throw away all the valuation b.s and swim with the tide!!! True but remember, the trend is your friend except at the end when it bends - Ed SeykotaAnd we could be right at the end of that trend.Yesterday's NSE close of 5406 could as well be the top. Today, we were down 29 points. The top will be confirmed by week close. Watch out for the divergence, what @Hisah calls price gaps which have to be filled. Don't write him off as yet. As i finish, most of this bull run you are seeing has been due to foreign buys. When the FED ups its cbr from 0.25 by mid June next year, the correction will be one to watch! Locally, CBK has begun the excess liquidity mop up to tame the KES pressure. Higher interest rates are on the way. A shift to fixed income will follow. #Staytuned Britam is -50% to date from Monday Sept 22nd highs. #shackles @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,702 Location: NAIROBI
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Next week it will be down 90% Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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The lessons are coming in thick and fast with britam leading the slaughter fest... Safcom, kcb and eabl are papering over the cracks across other counters otherwise this correction should be a lot more entertaining...like centum @40 The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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lochaz-index wrote:The lessons are coming in thick and fast with britam leading the slaughter fest... Safcom, kcb and eabl are papering over the cracks across other counters otherwise this correction should be a lot more entertaining...like centum @40 Waiting to see who has been swimming naked "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Hello Joined: 2/4/2014 Posts: 2
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centum @40............not likely
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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mmmakau wrote:centum @40............not likely Have you experienced a strong bear market before? Don't under estimate mr market when he's in a bad selling mood. Just like in a strong bull all caution is thrown out the window as the market ignores fundamentals. The same happens in a strong bear as stocks get unbelievably undervalued. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 6/14/2010 Posts: 521 Location: Nairobi
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murchr wrote:And where is guru? Madan has been MIA for quite sometime.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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NSE20 2015 snapshot. The index is in negative territory for 2015. Reversal on course. When the bear will be fully reigning, plots for sale will be the in thing as well as dull business news in the mainstream and a very quiet investor forum on wazua with mostly views and limited equity posts being the norm.  $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 830
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hisah wrote:NSE20 2015 snapshot. The index is in negative territory for 2015. This may be a bad year to hunt for capital gains, the best one can do is break even if lucky. However, most returns for 2015 will be from dividends, not capital gains, if this trend continues. A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
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S.Mutaga III wrote:hisah wrote:NSE20 2015 snapshot. The index is in negative territory for 2015. This may be a bad year to hunt for capital gains, the best one can do is break even if lucky. However, most returns for 2015 will be from dividends, not capital gains, if this trend continues. a perfect mountain!!!whats next?? "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 830
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mlennyma wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:hisah wrote:NSE20 2015 snapshot. The index is in negative territory for 2015. This may be a bad year to hunt for capital gains, the best one can do is break even if lucky. However, most returns for 2015 will be from dividends, not capital gains, if this trend continues. a perfect mountain!!!whats next?? You either buy growth stocks and dont expect any capital gains this year, perhaps in future, or you wait...then use stocksmaster's 10% dividend yield yardstick to pick stocks. My 2 Zimbabwe dollars. A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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The macro economic outlook simply does not look good. Cost push inflation seems to making a lot of headway especially in the last one month(just pass by your local grocery/retail shop and check out the price changes), the anticipated long rains are failing in some areas considered the bread basket (delayed perhaps? Could be but if not it compounds an existing problem), tea, coffee and tourism are not having the best of returns, the falling oil prices were a bit of a saving grace but am not sure how long that will hold, other currencies for both oil exporters and importers have weakened vs the dollar( kshs also weakening). The euro bond seems to have delayed the inevitable. Cbk guys can work out something to forestall the slide but for how long? The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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hisah wrote:mmmakau wrote:centum @40............not likely Have you experienced a strong bear market before? Don't under estimate mr market when he's in a bad selling mood. Just like in a strong bull all caution is thrown out the window as the market ignores fundamentals. The same happens in a strong bear as stocks get unbelievably undervalued. I've been praying for the lightening to strike twice. The last bear to bull was a bit of a learning cycle, but now I know exactly what to do. Was the Identity of FTSE 15 and 25 ever uncovered. Thats where to hit hard! in a bear The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Hello Joined: 2/4/2014 Posts: 2
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hisah wrote:mmmakau wrote:centum @40............not likely Have you experienced a strong bear market before? Don't under estimate mr market when he's in a bad selling mood. Just like in a strong bull all caution is thrown out the window as the market ignores fundamentals. The same happens in a strong bear as stocks get unbelievably undervalued. yes, i have experienced a bear market before; however centum has too many 'positives' on its side right now to be hit that hard; unless a certain bombshell of bad news hits, i see centum maintaining its current price or even going up
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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mmmakau wrote:hisah wrote:mmmakau wrote:centum @40............not likely Have you experienced a strong bear market before? Don't under estimate mr market when he's in a bad selling mood. Just like in a strong bull all caution is thrown out the window as the market ignores fundamentals. The same happens in a strong bear as stocks get unbelievably undervalued. yes, i have experienced a bear market before; however centum has too many 'positives' on its side right now to be hit that hard; unless a certain bombshell of bad news hits, i see centum maintaining its current price or even going up Mr Market knows nothing about positives. In a bear all fundamentals are thrown down the drain, and the sellers carry the day. A stock has no feelings; it doesnt even know you exist. "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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murchr wrote:mmmakau wrote:hisah wrote:mmmakau wrote:centum @40............not likely Have you experienced a strong bear market before? Don't under estimate mr market when he's in a bad selling mood. Just like in a strong bull all caution is thrown out the window as the market ignores fundamentals. The same happens in a strong bear as stocks get unbelievably undervalued. yes, i have experienced a bear market before; however centum has too many 'positives' on its side right now to be hit that hard; unless a certain bombshell of bad news hits, i see centum maintaining its current price or even going up Mr Market knows nothing about positives. In a bear all fundamentals are thrown down the drain, and the sellers carry the day. A stock has no feelings; it doesnt even know you exist. Very true. infact due to lack of dividend centum can sink very low in a proper bear market. where news of acquisitions doesn't matter. last bear centum was trading at 13.00 and it took longer to recover than other tier 2's. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,702 Location: NAIROBI
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Kenya's budget for 2015/2016 has been set at ksh.2.17 trillion;KRA is unable to collect half of that amount. Government surpasses target for domestic borrowing for 2014/2015. The revised target for domestic borrowing was Sh118.8 billion,while the net borrowing stood at a massive Sh202.98 billion as at the end of March this year. Interest rates on the 182-day and 364-day tbill rate is rising. Shares are bound to experience a slump as investors direct money to fixed income Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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