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Land Speculation Remastered
Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/21/2012 Posts: 1,739
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mawinder wrote:Msa Liti wrote:Gordon Gekko wrote:What role did pirate money play in the upswing of land/property prices? If the Somali situation is normalized, what will happen? What has happened since KDF went in and cut off supply of dollars into our economy? Is it true to say that a big proportion of price rise can be attributed to Somalia? A big one. In Eastleigh, sorry for being stereotypical, a 40 by 80 plot can fetch 10m. How does somebody recoup their investment?? Surely. The knock off effect has spiralled on to other areas. Where in Eastleigh?Such a plot goes for a minimum of 25m and the buyers are many.The money is not from pirates.When was the last time you heard of Somali pirates and could you provide statistics of ransom money,how it is shared and the percentage that reaches Kenya?I tend to think these are hardworkers coupled with diaspora inflows. Actually 25M is on the very, very lower side..like you have to be lucky to get one at that price. All old 1970s buildings plots have been bot by Warias and Kiuks and towers developed. No single undeveloped plot is without a "PLOT NOT FOR SALE/BUYER BEWARE" sign which tells you the demand/supply situation. Do not be anxious about anything, but in everything, by prayer and petition, with thanksgiving, present your requests to God..
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Rank: Member Joined: 7/8/2013 Posts: 126
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about 5 years ago, land and rent was cheap in many parts of thika roads because of the perennial traffic jams and lack of roads. when the superhighway came, prices of land and rent skyrocketed since it reduced the time taken to go to town. right now, even after the highway, traffic jams of 5 years ago are now back on thika road, and with ongoing massive developments, jam might be worse 5 years from now than it was five years ago. but this time round land will still be expensive
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/4/2010 Posts: 1,668 Location: nairobi
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urstill1 wrote:a4architect.com wrote:@urstill1..its quite a complicated concept of land taxation. You will hve to google n get the basics of it and how it works in other countries to understand. The current tax rates cant sustain new roads development as @najujua suggests coz this needs huge capital outlay. This capital outlay is actually here with us i.e if you buy land for 10m and sell for 20m, you have capital gains of 10m which you will pocket for your use within the country. This 10m should be heavily taxed so that say 5m of this goes into expanding the roads network. Currently, the 10m capital gains is never taxed after easy evasion except for 3% stamp duty. In South Africa, most of the 10m capital gain will have to be shared with Govt who will input more infrastructure. My question is on the fuel levy. Secondly, I don't think taxation on capital gains(land in this case) will result in more revenue than the fuel levy. Speculators will stop speculating and the current frenzy will stop. @urstill1..south africa has successfully used capital gains tax on land to stem speculation and stabilise inflation/poverty/interest rates. As Iron Sharpens Iron, So one Man Sharpens Another.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/17/2009 Posts: 3,583 Location: Kenya
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a4architect.com wrote:urstill1 wrote:a4architect.com wrote:@urstill1..its quite a complicated concept of land taxation. You will hve to google n get the basics of it and how it works in other countries to understand. The current tax rates cant sustain new roads development as @najujua suggests coz this needs huge capital outlay. This capital outlay is actually here with us i.e if you buy land for 10m and sell for 20m, you have capital gains of 10m which you will pocket for your use within the country. This 10m should be heavily taxed so that say 5m of this goes into expanding the roads network. Currently, the 10m capital gains is never taxed after easy evasion except for 3% stamp duty. In South Africa, most of the 10m capital gain will have to be shared with Govt who will input more infrastructure. My question is on the fuel levy. Secondly, I don't think taxation on capital gains(land in this case) will result in more revenue than the fuel levy. Speculators will stop speculating and the current frenzy will stop. @urstill1..south africa has successfully used capital gains tax on land to stem speculation and stabilise inflation/poverty/interest rates. capital gains tax seems like an interesting concept, but won't that drive the speculators into overdrive, they might start claiming that on top of a proposed bypass an internal port is coming up or some valuable mineral has been discovered nearby.  I think with time the whole kaplot mentality will disappear, especially after the 'diasporians' come home and realize the powerpoint 3d flash animations used to sell the plots to them equates to vast dry impassable black cotton soil when it rains - on ground reality. the matatu industry was at that point in the 90's upto to the recent past, also the stock market had gotten the momentum until the mobitelea ghost came along and people discovered land.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/21/2012 Posts: 1,739
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omhangla wrote:about 5 years ago, land and rent was cheap in many parts of thika roads because of the perennial traffic jams and lack of roads. when the superhighway came, prices of land and rent skyrocketed since it reduced the time taken to go to town. right now, even after the highway, traffic jams of 5 years ago are now back on thika road, and with ongoing massive developments, jam might be worse 5 years from now than it was five years ago. but this time round land will still be expensive Quite Interesting. What could be the cause of Jam on a 12 lane highway? I think the answer is what someone said earlier on this thread - Kenyans are generally doing well and livelihoods Improved. Example, Even after Motorbikes and Tuk tuks got a different registration Nos series a few years a go, the rate of Increase of vehicles on our roads is alarming. Right Now, KBW is Just about to get exhausted. Growing up in the 80s, a KBW registration would go for a good 12 month + before getting exhausted. And I think that this problem will have no end soon. That with 1 Million KES you cannot get a 50x100 Plot touching main Thika road anywhere before Makuyu makes the Situation worse. Do not be anxious about anything, but in everything, by prayer and petition, with thanksgiving, present your requests to God..
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/17/2011 Posts: 207 Location: humu humu
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Am wrote:omhangla wrote:about 5 years ago, land and rent was cheap in many parts of thika roads because of the perennial traffic jams and lack of roads. when the superhighway came, prices of land and rent skyrocketed since it reduced the time taken to go to town. right now, even after the highway, traffic jams of 5 years ago are now back on thika road, and with ongoing massive developments, jam might be worse 5 years from now than it was five years ago. but this time round land will still be expensive Quite Interesting. What could be the cause of Jam on a 12 lane highway? I think the answer is what someone said earlier on this thread - Kenyans are generally doing well and livelihoods Improved. Example, Even after Motorbikes and Tuk tuks got a different registration Nos series a few years a go, the rate of Increase of vehicles on our roads is alarming. Right Now, KBW is Just about to get exhausted. Growing up in the 80s, a KBW registration would go for a good 12 month + before getting exhausted. And I think that this problem will have no end soon. That with 1 Million KES you cannot get a 50x100 Plot touching main Thika road anywhere before Makuyu makes the Situation worse. It puzzling really,i mean these prices keep going up and there's no sign of abating because valuers architects and other players in the industry validate these prices in their reports. this sends a strong signal to the market that prices are supported by fundamentals.I would be worried if borrowing cost in kenya was low. Population growth and animal spirits will sustain the demand for plots and land for quite some time,as is the growth that we r about to experience in coming years.... however i strongly think the demand for ready built houses will come down soon.
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Rank: User Joined: 8/15/2013 Posts: 13,237 Location: Vacuum
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a4architect.com wrote:Nabwire wrote:[quote=a4architect.com]generally, govt is supposed to use tax to lay more infrastructure hence create a larger Karen so that demand doesn't outstrip supply. In Kenya since there is very little infrastructure devt by govt, demand keeps rising. It will rise until breaking point, most likely a libya/syria anarchy revolt situation. After this, kenyans will learn the importance on relying on scientific research to come up with home grown land /fiscal economy solutions. Wazuans in USA, please confirm that average price of land per acre in USA is kes 300k as described below http://www.bloomberg.com...-to-2-900-per-acre.html[/quote] To answer your question, land and housing prices in the US depend on location. I wont comment much on the article coz it talks about farming land which is entirely different from residential land, but the logic of location holds for both. Land and houses are generally very expensive in the North East ( NY, NJ, MA,) and in the West(CA, WA) but tends to be very cheap in the Midwest and the south ( GA,LA,TN,AL). Bankruptcy has also made places like Detroit very cheap, at the peak of the crisis, you could buy a house for $1, but it came with a lot of headache. Surprisingly, you can get relatively cheap land or houses nearby the expensive metropolitan areas. For example, there are very cheap houses in PA, which is 2 hours commute from NY, but the closer you get to NY, the prices shoot up astronomically. @nabwire..thanks. I wanted price per acre for both farmland and cbd land for comparison. In kenya, farmland is around kes 100k per acre and cbd land is around 250m per acre. What of usa? The article says kes 250 k per acre which sounds too low for usa. This means alot of middle class kenyans can afford farmland in usa if its true. Exactly how much is an average 1 acre plot in USA for farmland and CBD? Looks like kenyan prices could be higher. which part of Kenya can you get an agricultural land at 100K per acre? If Obiero did it, Who Am I?
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/21/2012 Posts: 1,739
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Swenani wrote:a4architect.com wrote:Nabwire wrote:[quote=a4architect.com]generally, govt is supposed to use tax to lay more infrastructure hence create a larger Karen so that demand doesn't outstrip supply. In Kenya since there is very little infrastructure devt by govt, demand keeps rising. It will rise until breaking point, most likely a libya/syria anarchy revolt situation. After this, kenyans will learn the importance on relying on scientific research to come up with home grown land /fiscal economy solutions. Wazuans in USA, please confirm that average price of land per acre in USA is kes 300k as described below http://www.bloomberg.com...-to-2-900-per-acre.html[/quote] To answer your question, land and housing prices in the US depend on location. I wont comment much on the article coz it talks about farming land which is entirely different from residential land, but the logic of location holds for both. Land and houses are generally very expensive in the North East ( NY, NJ, MA,) and in the West(CA, WA) but tends to be very cheap in the Midwest and the south ( GA,LA,TN,AL). Bankruptcy has also made places like Detroit very cheap, at the peak of the crisis, you could buy a house for $1, but it came with a lot of headache. Surprisingly, you can get relatively cheap land or houses nearby the expensive metropolitan areas. For example, there are very cheap houses in PA, which is 2 hours commute from NY, but the closer you get to NY, the prices shoot up astronomically. @nabwire..thanks. I wanted price per acre for both farmland and cbd land for comparison. In kenya, farmland is around kes 100k per acre and cbd land is around 250m per acre. What of usa? The article says kes 250 k per acre which sounds too low for usa. This means alot of middle class kenyans can afford farmland in usa if its true. Exactly how much is an average 1 acre plot in USA for farmland and CBD? Looks like kenyan prices could be higher. which part of Kenya can you get an agricultural land at 100K per acre? Kajiado Interior, Loitoktok, Amboseli, Interior of Isiolo, etc. Do not be anxious about anything, but in everything, by prayer and petition, with thanksgiving, present your requests to God..
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/4/2010 Posts: 1,668 Location: nairobi
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Swenani wrote:a4architect.com wrote:Nabwire wrote:[quote=a4architect.com]generally, govt is supposed to use tax to lay more infrastructure hence create a larger Karen so that demand doesn't outstrip supply. In Kenya since there is very little infrastructure devt by govt, demand keeps rising. It will rise until breaking point, most likely a libya/syria anarchy revolt situation. After this, kenyans will learn the importance on relying on scientific research to come up with home grown land /fiscal economy solutions. Wazuans in USA, please confirm that average price of land per acre in USA is kes 300k as described below http://www.bloomberg.com...-to-2-900-per-acre.html[/quote] To answer your question, land and housing prices in the US depend on location. I wont comment much on the article coz it talks about farming land which is entirely different from residential land, but the logic of location holds for both. Land and houses are generally very expensive in the North East ( NY, NJ, MA,) and in the West(CA, WA) but tends to be very cheap in the Midwest and the south ( GA,LA,TN,AL). Bankruptcy has also made places like Detroit very cheap, at the peak of the crisis, you could buy a house for $1, but it came with a lot of headache. Surprisingly, you can get relatively cheap land or houses nearby the expensive metropolitan areas. For example, there are very cheap houses in PA, which is 2 hours commute from NY, but the closer you get to NY, the prices shoot up astronomically. @nabwire..thanks. I wanted price per acre for both farmland and cbd land for comparison. In kenya, farmland is around kes 100k per acre and cbd land is around 250m per acre. What of usa? The article says kes 250 k per acre which sounds too low for usa. This means alot of middle class kenyans can afford farmland in usa if its true. Exactly how much is an average 1 acre plot in USA for farmland and CBD? Looks like kenyan prices could be higher. which part of Kenya can you get an agricultural land at 100K per acre? Going rates for 5,000, 10,000, 20,000 acre pieces of land in Nanyuki, Laikipia, Suswa, Naivasha, Kilimambogo where such land is available for sale is in this range. As Iron Sharpens Iron, So one Man Sharpens Another.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/22/2011 Posts: 1,325
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I think the land prices around Nairobi are high because of volatile inflation, so people prefer hard assets that have returns higher than the inflation rate. Since choices are limited, majority of people store their money in land, demand for land then outstrips its supply (in the Nairobi region) so the prices start inching up, and as more people get more disposable income, they look at land as a safe haven to park their cash, resulting in outrageous prices! I cant even imagine why someone would buy one acre of land for 250m an acre! Once devolution happens, and financial markets are better regulated, and interest rates go down and inflation is tamed, then those land prices will have to go down, in other words once investors have confidence in the value of money through stable financial environment and government policies that protect investor rights, that's the only way that investors will stop flooding into land and hence over valuing it.
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