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Safaricom HY2013 Profit before tax up 113%
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Aguytrying wrote:surely anyone who bought at 3.00. the higher it goes the more likely your (already large)paper profit increase is coming to an end.
who last year could have dared to think safcom would touch 5.00 between then and 2013? now even 5.50 is in sight. unbelievable. Have you seen BAT, Uchumi, EABL, KCB, ARM rallies? That is what hot money does! Compared to 2007 market climax, NSE is still very far from that level. Then P/Es of 20s - 40s were the norm! I remember Equity had a P/E of 44 at one point!
Another thing is Wanjikus are still watching. If next year they see stocks flipping similar gains, then the match back into equties will start. Most likely late 2013. By 2014 many new wazua members will be giving success stories as the bull floats everything up. Then ridiculous P/Es will pop up again. Then you'll know what to do 
@dunkang - they expect better performance than 2011-2012. Bob said the mgmt raised the outlook for this year (me thinks mgmt must be on an offense surprise - I wonder what is that hat trick). Last year they downgraded after taking a 47% hit on H1 2011 numbers. Lower double digit is 10-20%. Still a big feat coming from a 4% dip with a nasty price war, MNP bogus campaign and a hostile CCK...
I expect mpesa bank to range at 4.50 - 5.20 till March 2013.
NSE20 will likely close above 4200 - 200pts above by estimate. 4400 is tough resistance, but next year if elections are fine, we can see 4800 - 5000 zone.
Regret not boarding simba at 20. Did so at 25. Expect it to print 40 with a fat dividend in 2013. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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hisah wrote:Aguytrying wrote:surely anyone who bought at 3.00. the higher it goes the more likely your (already large)paper profit increase is coming to an end.
who last year could have dared to think safcom would touch 5.00 between then and 2013? now even 5.50 is in sight. unbelievable. Have you seen BAT, Uchumi, EABL, KCB, ARM rallies? That is what hot money does! Compared to 2007 market climax, NSE is still very far from that level. Then P/Es of 20s - 40s were the norm! I remember Equity had a P/E of 44 at one point!
Another thing is Wanjikus are still watching. If next year they see stocks flipping similar gains, then the match back into equties will start. Most likely late 2013. By 2014 many new wazua members will be giving success stories as the bull floats everything up. Then ridiculous P/Es will pop up again. Then you'll know what to do
@dunkang - they expect better performance than 2011-2012. Bob said the mgmt raised the outlook for this year (me thinks mgmt must be on an offense surprise - I wonder what is that hat trick). Last year they downgraded after taking a 47% hit on H1 2011 numbers. Lower double digit is 10-20%. Still a big feat coming from a 4% dip with a nasty price war, MNP bogus campaign and a hostile CCK...
I expect mpesa bank to range at 4.50 - 5.20 till March 2013.
NSE20 will likely close above 4200 - 200pts above by estimate. 4400 is tough resistance, but next year if elections are fine, we can see 4800 - 5000 zone.
Regret not boarding simba at 20. Did so at 25. Expect it to print 40 with a fat dividend in 2013. yep! sell. Imagine there was a time HFCK was at around pe of 35(if im not wrong) during that bull period and no dividend was been paid! The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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This is a mature company with limited growth prospects going forward, I can't buy it at a PE beyond 10, which means my fair price is KES4.20.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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the deal wrote:This is a mature company with limited growth prospects going forward, I can't buy it at a PE beyond 10, which means my fair price is KES4.20. @thedeal their dividend payout says the company is far from mature. CAPEX also high, aiming at data offering improvement and mpesa. I am counting on Safaricom to come up with new evolutionary products since they cannot expand out of Kenya. @hisah the growth will come from cost reduction. The company has indicated cost savings of 2B+ from a renegotiation of the commission agreement for buying equipment through vodafone. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 5/25/2012 Posts: 4,105 Location: 08c
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sparkly wrote:the deal wrote:This is a mature company with limited growth prospects going forward, I can't buy it at a PE beyond 10, which means my fair price is KES4.20. @thedeal their dividend payout says the company is far from mature. CAPEX also high, aiming at data offering improvement and mpesa. I am counting on Safaricom to come up with new evolutionary products since they cannot expand out of Kenya. @hisah the growth will come from cost reduction. The company has indicated cost savings of 2B+ from a renegotiation of the commission agreement for buying equipment through vodafone. Oops! I didn't know that! So, How Come?? Pesa Nane plans to be shilingi when he grows up.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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sparkly wrote:the deal wrote:This is a mature company with limited growth prospects going forward, I can't buy it at a PE beyond 10, which means my fair price is KES4.20. @thedeal their dividend payout says the company is far from mature. CAPEX also high, aiming at data offering improvement and mpesa. I am counting on Safaricom to come up with new evolutionary products since they cannot expand out of Kenya. @hisah the growth will come from cost reduction. The company has indicated cost savings of 2B+ from a renegotiation of the commission agreement for buying equipment through vodafone. That capex hike is what I'm looking at. Is it for 4G rollout? Or what product is up the sleeves since a lot of cashflow is now piled up..$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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hisah wrote:sparkly wrote:the deal wrote:This is a mature company with limited growth prospects going forward, I can't buy it at a PE beyond 10, which means my fair price is KES4.20. @thedeal their dividend payout says the company is far from mature. CAPEX also high, aiming at data offering improvement and mpesa. @hisah the growth will come from cost reduction. That capex hike is what I'm looking at. Is it for 4G rollout? Or what product is up the sleeves since a lot of cashflow is now piled up.. They are going to increase fibre from 600km to 2400 in the next 3yrs at a cost of KShs 14B. I don't understand why they can't just acquire jamii telkom 4000km of fibre instead of re-digging trenches. With fast changes in Telecoms, this is money that may never be recouped in time. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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Come on People, Safcom has no competition, the nearest compe it has is EABL "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,354 Location: Nairobi
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sparkly wrote:hisah wrote:sparkly wrote:the deal wrote:This is a mature company with limited growth prospects going forward, I can't buy it at a PE beyond 10, which means my fair price is KES4.20. @thedeal their dividend payout says the company is far from mature. CAPEX also high, aiming at data offering improvement and mpesa. @hisah the growth will come from cost reduction. That capex hike is what I'm looking at. Is it for 4G rollout? Or what product is up the sleeves since a lot of cashflow is now piled up.. They are going to increase fibre from 600km to 2400 in the next 3yrs at a cost of KShs 14B. I don't understand why they can't just acquire jamii telkom 4000km of fibre instead of re-digging trenches. With fast changes in Telecoms, this is money that may never be recouped in time. Didn't Safcom have a tiff with JTL? Nowadays, JTL is going after the high-end retail market with the Faiba ads. KDN has many issues but if it's cheap enough it can be a takeover target. Access looks interesting. I was told (rumour) that the Somens had rejected an offer at 20/- & now the shares are trading at 4.60 so there is a (slight) possibility of a takeover. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/4/2012 Posts: 155 Location: Kenya
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murchr wrote:Come on People, Safcom has no competition, the nearest compe it has is EABL  If you don't want to go to plan B have a good plan A.
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Safaricom HY2013 Profit before tax up 113%
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