Wazua
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Facebook IPO
Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/16/2010 Posts: 906 Location: Nairobi
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Tanking fast. It's looking to hit about 30$ a share, despite Morgan Stanley's best attempts at support. http://www.businessinsid...aks-the-ipo-price-2012-5
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/26/2011 Posts: 759
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hisah wrote:@Rollout - what is your short target? $20. Me thinks this thing should go sub $10. I don't see its value at all... I started shorting once it hit $40 last friday, I will be doing it until they lock me out, which I think they'll very soon, I will start deliverying the stocks on Thurday, my plan is to cover all my short positions before 1pm on thurday and go long on the same stock thurday afternoon because alot of shortsellers will be deliverying the stock around that time so there will be a small rally in the afternoon of thurday as more people buy the stock and cover their short positions. Facebook will be trading at between $23-$27 by Tuesday next week! Good bless facebook!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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So far FB stock is 11% below IPO price on 2nd trading day. Those who bought it at $45 during the IPO ramp are already 20% underwater. Indeed a historic global IPO this is... Enjoy the video... https://www.youtube.com/...bedded&v=qqF83-FmVpM$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: User Joined: 1/24/2012 Posts: 1,675 Location: In Da Hood
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Rollout wrote:hisah wrote:@Rollout - what is your short target? $20. Me thinks this thing should go sub $10. I don't see its value at all... I started shorting once it hit $40 last friday, I will be doing it until they lock me out, which I think they'll very soon, I will start deliverying the stocks on Thurday, my plan is to cover all my short positions before 1pm on thurday and go long on the same stock thurday afternoon because alot of shortsellers will be deliverying the stock around that time so there will be a small rally in the afternoon of thurday as more people buy the stock and cover their short positions. Facebook will be trading at between $23-$27 by Tuesday next week! Good bless facebook! @rollout. Which broker do you use to trade facebook stocks ? Are they cheap ?
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/26/2011 Posts: 759
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QW25091985 wrote:Rollout wrote:hisah wrote:@Rollout - what is your short target? $20. Me thinks this thing should go sub $10. I don't see its value at all... I started shorting once it hit $40 last friday, I will be doing it until they lock me out, which I think they'll very soon, I will start deliverying the stocks on Thurday, my plan is to cover all my short positions before 1pm on thurday and go long on the same stock thurday afternoon because alot of shortsellers will be deliverying the stock around that time so there will be a small rally in the afternoon of thurday as more people buy the stock and cover their short positions. Facebook will be trading at between $23-$27 by Tuesday next week! Good bless facebook! @rollout. Which broker do you use to trade facebook stocks ? Are they cheap ? I trade inhouse using other people's money! Don't need a broker!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 11/7/2007 Posts: 2,182
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rollout care to explain how you so that? kindly?? LOVE WHAT YOU DO, DO WHAT YOU LOVE.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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The Wanjikus in the USA who bought into Facebook should find time and talk to the Wanjikus in Kenya who bought into Safaricon and Britank! They might help each other in coping mechanisms. They might even do it in AA-style meetings. ''Hi, guys. My name is...and I got duped'' Or to paraphrase rapper Game: ''NYSE, NSE; different toilet same shit!'' GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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Mr Moorhead said that meant the Initial Public Offering (IPO) had been a success for Facebook's founders and early investors. Some of them managed to sell parts of their stakes for hundreds of millions of dollars. But he said the share price fall could have long-term consequences for the world's biggest social network. "The challenge is this will sully the long-term brand of Facebook, and in five years time people will look back on the IPO and have a negative connotation and none of that is good for the Facebook brand and the Facebook service itself," Mr Moorhead told BBC World. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18141990
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/22/2011 Posts: 1,325
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There is no such thing as a Wanjiku investor in the US. The US middle class is too broke to even have money left over to buy shares, after extreme partying,flashy cars and bills bills bills, they barely have $2 at the end of the month. The retail investors who bought FB cashed out on Friday in a panic, I think most of the people left in now are the big boys and the speculators. The lock out period I think is 6 months for the initial investors, they have Billions to lose, I doubt if they will just let the ship sink. I wouldnt necessarily write off FB, the sad thing for them is when the tide does turn for them, people will be too busy to notice. Lets not forget that the IPO was offered at a time when the market had been down 11 out of 12 sesions
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/26/2011 Posts: 759
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@youcan'tstopusnow, According to me, it is good for longterm prospect of facebook for the stock to drop down to $20-$25, and I know this sound like self-serving on my part because I had already indicated that my positions will profit when facebook stock drop but here is the point.
Valuation of facebook IPO is supported by blurry fundamentals, so with the IPO price of $38 facebook will most likely disappoint the market by not meeting the revenue targets that can support such stock price, so to avoid regular missing of targets, facebook stock can as well take the hit now and grow it's revenue step by step than have to disappoint the market quarter after quarter. Again either way I am happy with the way thing are looking right now, couldn't be happier! God Bless Facebook
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/26/2011 Posts: 759
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[quote=hisah]So far FB stock is 11% below IPO price on 2nd trading day. Those who bought it at $45 during the IPO ramp are already 20% underwater. Indeed a historic global IPO this is... Enjoy the video... https://www.youtube.com/...edded&v=qqF83-FmVpM[/quote] Who in this world full of stupid people would think facebook will undervalue its stock? it was obvious just like Safaricom that facebook was going to overvalue the stock, the only think that push the price up was the hype, I predicated a drop of between 15-25% by the end of the first full week of trading!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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Rollout, true. FB won't tumble forever. The exact same scenario played out here where Britak and TCL rose slightly at first then hit mega-lows immediately after. Only after the dust has settled, are they now gradually beginning to rise. Was there ever a positive report on Facebook pre-listing? All reports I read advised caution. Yet who was buying at 45? And more intriguing, why? (Maybe just succumbing to 'hype' as you say) GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Rollout wrote:hisah wrote:@Rollout - what is your short target? $20. Me thinks this thing should go sub $10. I don't see its value at all... I started shorting once it hit $40 last friday, I will be doing it until they lock me out, which I think they'll very soon, I will start deliverying the stocks on Thurday, my plan is to cover all my short positions before 1pm on thurday and go long on the same stock thurday afternoon because alot of shortsellers will be deliverying the stock around that time so there will be a small rally in the afternoon of thurday as more people buy the stock and cover their short positions. Facebook will be trading at between $23-$27 by Tuesday next week! Good bless facebook! I still think $23 is too high for this thing. As you say the short covering will bounce it, but my outlook 4-6 months is this thing will be sub $20. What stops FB from experiencing the same fate as MySpace? How unique is it not to be replicated? Where is the value coming from? What are its assets? People's photos & status?
As @youcant says KE retails got it rough with Britak & Safaricom hype IPO's? I expect FB to remain sub IPO price for a long time. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/12/2006 Posts: 1,554
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Extract from Zacks.com
Much Ado About Nothing (aka Facebook)
Facebook has to be the most overhyped and underwhelming IPO of all time. First the launch was delayed by 30 minutes. Then it barely blipped higher before retreating to the original price of $38. Then the underwriters had to jump in to buy more shares to save face. From there it floated higher for a while. Then ended the day embarrassingly close to where it started.
Want to know what I really think about Facebook? Then check out my most recent article (the title might tip you off a little ;-).
Why I Am Shorting Facebook
As for my prediction of a bounce coming, it seems to be according to plan. Here again is my previous commentary on the matter:
"I bet that the market bounces higher on Friday morning. Yet as the day progresses it starts turning south once again. And as hope goes out the window THAT is the time to cover your shorts and go a bit more long for a likely 2-3% bounce next week."
Well the hope going out the window part certainly took place. Now let's see if the bounce ensues. To get the early read on the market every morning, then be sure become a regular reader of our popular article: Ahead of Wall Street
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Rank: Member Joined: 7/13/2006 Posts: 94 Location: Nairobi
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Which brokers in Kenya can assist me to buy this FB stock. Knock hard and it will be opened. Ask and you will be answered. Seek and you shall find.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/13/2009 Posts: 1,950 Location: in kenya
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And now is the start of the Drama. Quote:In the run-up to Facebook's $16 billion IPO, Morgan Stanley, the lead underwriter on the deal, unexpectedly delivered some negative news to major clients: The bank's consumer Internet analyst, Scott Devitt, was reducing his revenue forecasts for the company.
The sudden caution very close to the huge initial public offering, and while an investor roadshow was underway, was a big shock to some, said two investors who were advised of the revised forecast.
They say it may have contributed to the weak performance of Facebook shares, which sank on Monday - their second day of trading - to end 10 percent below the IPO price. The $38 per share IPO price valued Facebook at $104 billion. http://news.yahoo.com/in...po-051601330--sector.htm'......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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selah wrote:And now is the start of the Drama. Quote:In the run-up to Facebook's $16 billion IPO, Morgan Stanley, the lead underwriter on the deal, unexpectedly delivered some negative news to major clients: The bank's consumer Internet analyst, Scott Devitt, was reducing his revenue forecasts for the company.
The sudden caution very close to the huge initial public offering, and while an investor roadshow was underway, was a big shock to some, said two investors who were advised of the revised forecast.
They say it may have contributed to the weak performance of Facebook shares, which sank on Monday - their second day of trading - to end 10 percent below the IPO price. The $38 per share IPO price valued Facebook at $104 billion. http://news.yahoo.com/in...o-051601330--sector.htm Oh this FB game is shaping out to be a proper thriller...$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/26/2011 Posts: 759
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hisah wrote:Rollout wrote:hisah wrote:@Rollout - what is your short target? $20. Me thinks this thing should go sub $10. I don't see its value at all... I started shorting once it hit $40 last friday, I will be doing it until they lock me out, which I think they'll very soon, I will start deliverying the stocks on Thurday, my plan is to cover all my short positions before 1pm on thurday and go long on the same stock thurday afternoon because alot of shortsellers will be deliverying the stock around that time so there will be a small rally in the afternoon of thurday as more people buy the stock and cover their short positions. Facebook will be trading at between $23-$27 by Tuesday next week! Good bless facebook! I still think $23 is too high for this thing. As you say the short covering will bounce it, but my outlook 4-6 months is this thing will be sub $20. What stops FB from experiencing the same fate as MySpace? How unique is it not to be replicated? Where is the value coming from? What are its assets? People's photos & status?
As @youcant says KE retails got it rough with Britak & Safaricom hype IPO's? I expect FB to remain sub IPO price for a long time. I think Facebook has alot of smart people running the company and for that reason the next move for facebook is to go for a round of shopping, acquisition will very much drive the company revenue for the next 3 yrs but the EVA will be on red for some time because of that, when you put everything together, unlike Safaricom, facebook will actually perform well in long term.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Still bleeding - down 4% today. http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/fb/stock-chart$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/26/2011 Posts: 759
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Just counting my days, Thurday 1pm I will be very happy, I want it to slide as slow as possible as I milk every moment, this baby is doing exactly what some of us wanted. Now that it is public information, there were cuts in revenue estimate assumptions in the middle of the roadshow that were material but were only disclosed to privilaged investors and that explain a larger part of sell off, in plain terms some people had material info about Facebook, JP Morgan, Morgan Stan and Goldman underwriting analysts lower the estimate the last minute and the info was only disclosed to few investors, sound illigal to me but let the SEC worry about that!
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