Downside target levels for the NSE index.
Short term 3600 - 3700 (3wks - 6wks)
Mid term 3200 - 3400 (2mths - 5mths)
Long term 2800 - 3000 (6mths onwards).

Since the index is currently oversold, rebound target is 3800 - 3900 short term also likely to be supported by earnings reports esp from banks. The index fell thru this supportl (3900) like a knife, this is now solid resistance with a lot of sellers trapped. At this rebound level expect selling. If indeed the bounce hits 4000 (unlikely), sellers pressure will increase. Then the index slide aiming the bounce floor down to 3400 ensues.

At 3200 - 3400, the rebound aims 3600 -3700 level.

If the elliot wave count (5 down) is correct, sellers fatigue will most likely stop at 2700 - 2800 levels. Look for large volumes below 3000 from smart money. You'll notice with ease since at this level small daily volumes will be moving the market in a sickly fashion.

This is just my view on the current bear setup. Smart may decide to create a floor now or lower. But my gut feeling is from 3000 down, PPT (plunge protection team) will step in. ATS will be 'failing' at times Or at times trading ends early (suspended) or trading starts late. PPT masters should know of a term called circuit breakers (CB). They should get the ATS vendors to implement this rather than ATS 'failing'

Therefore from 3000 below expect the down pressure to lessen as the index flattens ready for a large bounce from all the extreme selling since 4400 broke down. KE and EA fundamental are rosier than the 1st world by far, so this is a generous buying opportunity tho in small doses for those solid bluechips which deliver dividends.

When the bull reversal starts, I will start another thread on the bull targets. As @youcant once said, I track the index.
Why no index trading?

If online trading systems fail when the market is at 3000 levels, we'll physically go the broker. Hope you still won't be in Malaysia then

My "basket of goods" has passed a 3,700pts stress-test. Wonder how it would look @ 3,300 (I like to forget )

[quote=the deal]

The NSE20 rose for the first time in 8 Days, the measure gained 36 points or 0.97% to close at 3782, 52 Week return now stands at -13% compared to other indexes on the African Continent i.e the Namibia Stock Exchange has returned over 11% over the same period, the NSE20 is deeply oversold and cheap, i expect a rally from this levels maybe up to the 3900 mark but the overall picture is bearish. The Shilling weakened further against the USD, in fact the last time i checked, the shilling was trading at 89.70 against the green buck


Read more here http://www.contrarianinv...by-bellwether-safaricom[/quote]
S.com provided a good boost no doubt.

So yuou are the guy who gifted me NIC @ 40 yesterday - or was it a poisoned chalice. I just could not resist it. This is a purely speculative position. Target 43.50-44 by months end!