@obiero - I need to look at the 1H 2012-13 results but I am worried about KQ's 2H 2012-13 as well. I think the worst (hit) of the hedges were taken in 1H but 2H has operational challenges thus the (overall) loss may not as large as 1H but an operational loss for 2H.
My non-Exchange Bar thoughts!
1) The huge salary savings that were not saved from the 800 staff who the (useless) court sent back to work. Upon their 'return to work', they probably did not care about working as much as gloating.
2) The costs of the 'firings' that have to be expensed. Lawyers, HR, etc.
3) The slowdown in 4Q 2012-13 (Jan-Mar 2013) due to the elections. Look at the 4Q passenger numbers.
4) The increased fixed assets (planes) in 2H 2012-13 which may not have been fully utilized with the low PLFs.
5) Aggressive RwandaAir & Air Uganda which competes for the lucrative KGL & EBB routes.
Pros
1) The LCCs seem to be dead/dying. Fly 540 has issues with FastJet. Jetlink has issues in South Sudan which crippled it.
2) The drop in the (share) price to reflect the problems.
3) Stable KES & fuel prices.
"The company put into the market capacity totalling 3,143m seat kilometres which was 4.5% below last year’s level. The decline during the period was as a result of discontinued operations to N’Djamena, Muscat and Jeddah though New Delhi joined the network in the first quarter of 2012."
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett