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Realities of Forex Investment
hisah
#501 Posted : Tuesday, October 05, 2010 7:59:47 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
@fxtech and @merchant - RBA keeps key interest the same contrary to market expectations and the aussie is duly sold in asian trade with AUDCAD heavily sold - buy stops getting tripped. This is why I like bullish/bearish extremes since reversals are so strong as last minute trend riders get burnt out. I'll add more shorts at 9860 on the bounce assuming London can bring us back there. If not, no need to chance the trade since below .9825 hints a collapse to .9680. If it does this, then these becomes a monthly trade and trend smile

I'm long GBPAUD (2 positions) @ market 1.6414, stop 1.6380 & limit 1.6520 & 2nd target 1.6580 - this is a weekly trade after the 1.6240 triple bottom. I expect this reversal to be furious if we break 1.6550 with highest target at 1.67s.

Trade ideas for today - short AUDUSD @.9630-50 - stop .9700-20 - sell limit .9550, 2nd .9475. I'd take 3 positions on this for a quick buck, then take profit on two position on 1st target and leave the other running for the 2nd limit.
Also looking at the EURGBP hourly, I think this pair is ready for another dive towards .8570 which hints more GBP strength. I'm maxed on my positions (for the day since I'm still looking for USDCHF and one more AUDCAD.
What are your trades for today or the week?
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#502 Posted : Tuesday, October 05, 2010 12:26:59 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
@fxtech - EURGBP is ripe for a short now on the 4hr fibo retracement at the 61.8% level - .8690 of yesterday's sell off. I've taken a small short .8685 looking for this pair to fall back to .8560 since both EURGBP and GBPUSD are rallying. One of them is lying smile And based on the slight $ weakness, I think the euro is lying.

EURUSD - Yet again testing above 1.3740? If it fails to head higher in London, NY session will sell it down again and we already have USDCHF below .9700 as I expected. Now waiting for a retrace of the selling with a higher close by end of week to confirm short term $ rally.
Keep in mind that on Friday is high risk day due to NFP (US jobless rate announcement).
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#503 Posted : Tuesday, October 05, 2010 12:35:13 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
@fxtech - forgot to mention GBPAUD is breaking 1.6550 level. This opens up a test of 1.67 most likely by end of tomorrow. If you didn't take this trade, wait for 1.6500 retrace by NY time (4pm Kenya time), then go long.
AUDCAD - has collapsed to support near .9760. A retrace is now likely as quick shorts take profits. You can safely short around .9850-.9900
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
fxtech
#504 Posted : Tuesday, October 05, 2010 1:07:19 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 5/31/2010
Posts: 325
Location: NAIROBI
@hisah, Yah EURGBP completely opposite bt I belive fromthe techical point of view we wil be bullish soon, 4 the day, EURCHF LONG T.P @1.3360, GBPUSD LONG T.P 1.5910, AUDCAD, ws bearish 4 the better part of the morning,im long T.P @0.9870, ELLIOT WAVE is in support of this view.
Discipline & sticking to your strategy even when you loosing defines great traders.
hisah
#505 Posted : Wednesday, October 06, 2010 12:28:43 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Interesting price action today. GDPAUD rockets after breaking 1.64 downtrend barrier to test critical zone at 1.6550 and is reversed all the way back to the daily open. Thanks for stops and limits. Got hit on both! The last time I saw this price action was during the Bear Sterns, Freddie Mac & Fannie Mae bankruptcy saga in mid 2008 before Lehman went bust and killed the markets. Then the intraday price action was so wild. The euro too was knee-jerk just like it has been since last week. 2008 is back.
AUDCAD retrace is impressive after the collapse, but the daily dragonfly candle is very bearish. The best aussie reversal has been the AUDNZD. I'm regretting putting the tight stops which were hit during the overnight trade. This one is truly bearish reversed for some weeks.
If EURGBP doesn't close above .8720 today I expect it to reverse. I didn't expect the euro to reverse strongly today. Very wild swings! I'm sidelined for now, but I'll keep a watch on the EURUSD reaction at 1.39s. At the same time I'll still look for GBPAUD longs due to the triple bottom. USDCHF is still falling, can't touch for now.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
fxtech
#506 Posted : Wednesday, October 06, 2010 10:16:27 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 5/31/2010
Posts: 325
Location: NAIROBI
@hisah, hope u garnered some pips esp on EURGBP, AUDUSD recoveries, today im bull on GBPUSD, EURUSD,NZDUSD bear on USDCHF,USDCAD, What's in 4 you 2dy.
Discipline & sticking to your strategy even when you loosing defines great traders.
hisah
#507 Posted : Wednesday, October 06, 2010 11:48:15 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Sidelined for now. I'll look @ the london session then decide on NY session.
I think GBPUSD could test 1.60.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
fxtech
#508 Posted : Wednesday, October 06, 2010 1:00:46 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 5/31/2010
Posts: 325
Location: NAIROBI
@hisah also think so about the cable, AUDUSD looks like it will hit .9840
Discipline & sticking to your strategy even when you loosing defines great traders.
hisah
#509 Posted : Wednesday, October 06, 2010 5:20:17 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Hmmm... markets gone berserk. Are you seeing the today's choppy behaviour. Euro equities too, up and down. No direction. This is un-tradable.

Something from Goldman Sachs (GS) FX desk - http://www.scribd.com/do...8821898/Goldman-FX-10-6

GS is forecasting EURUSD high of 1.55 for a 12mth outlook. Buy euro debt crisis, sell US deficit economy smile Trading the ugly is getting really ugly. This is madness.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#510 Posted : Wednesday, October 06, 2010 7:05:28 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
@fxtech - Same thing in NY session -> nasdaq down, s&p future up (barely), s&p cash down (barely), dow up (barely)...?? Total confusion.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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