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Kenya Economy Watch
Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/16/2014 Posts: 1,420 Location: Bohemian Grove
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Mainat wrote:Always bear in mind that AA is a fund manager aka broker grahamsdisciple wrote:whiteowl wrote:muganda wrote:The words of Aly-Khan Satchu. Hmmmmn... Quote:This Loan is a near-term Silver Bullet for the Treasury.
Kenyan Economy
The loan has a two year tenor.
The Government was looking to drawdown 221b from the domestic bond
markets in this financial Year. In what became a Stand-Off at the OK
Corral the GOK actually redeemed about 61b until the recent
Capitulation which saw 1 Year T-Bills cross 23%.
It was that 'Swing'' which amplified the recent credit crunch.
Therefore 60b Shillings should go a long way towards compensating for
that Swing and ease interest rates in the domestic markets in the near
term.
I would immediately convert the Dollars into Shillings [which would
have the effect of bring the Shilling back into double digits] and
essentially put that Liquidity to work in the domestic market.
This Loan is a near-term Silver Bullet for the Treasury. I tend to over analyze anything he says before I can digest it. This guy is a perma-bull. Indeed this credit will be a short-term boost but remember that our debt servicing costs are rising and our dollar flows seem patchy therefore the currency is far from being out of the woods. Secondly, a decline in interest rates to 10-11 should correspond with a decrease in the opportunity cost of holding dollar so from a macro perspective its just a patchwork. and he also has a flashy history
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,702 Location: NAIROBI
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Lapsset pipeline is now becoming a white elephant; No need for it;we should just extend the pipeline from Mombasa to Lamu. It's a cheaper and efficient option. http://www.businessdaily...50/-/cafkj3/-/index.htmlWealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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We shouldn't make decisions mainly because of what Ug is planning or thinking. Don't forget they are landlocked and we aint. There are so many other economies that can be grown on that side of the country to Ethiopia "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,702 Location: NAIROBI
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South Sudan,Ethiopia and Djibouti plan to build a pipeline to Red Sea to export crude oil from Juba. They say the kenyan side has alot of politics and slow on implementation Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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Ericsson wrote:South Sudan,Ethiopia and Djibouti plan to build a pipeline to Red Sea to export crude oil from Juba.
They say the kenyan side has alot of politics and slow on implementation Look at the map and see where that pipeline passes thro..actually its ok if S.Sudan's oil uses that line, siasa zao hatuwezi. Do we want Kenyan oil to be routed through TZ? If UG abandons the pipeline thru Kenya..We can also pull out of the refinery. "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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The World Bank Threatens Free Markets in Peru$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/16/2014 Posts: 1,420 Location: Bohemian Grove
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They're right not to trust loan sharks.
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/3/2011 Posts: 264 Location: Nairobi
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whiteowl wrote:They're right not to trust loan sharks. The following are comments from that blog. Quote:I think this capital flight from America is the main reason why we didn't see huge price inflation after all the QE and interest rate repressive monetary expansion after 2008. We exported the inflation to the third world, since it offered a higher rate of return, and since elite investors had learned that the Fed and the Treasury would basically insure them against all bad outcomes, it was a no brainer for them.
Now that the credit cycle is maturing and the dollar is once again rising in value as it contracts in scope, the emerging markets, which have taken on vast sums of dollar denominated debt, are in danger of a mass default, which would probably trigger the global financial collapse we all know is coming sooner or later.
The concept that low rates and monetary expansion will drive up inflation within the political jurisdiction operated on the assumption that the capital region was relatively closed. 40 years ago, this was true. If the Fed increased the supply of US Dollars, the local inflation rate would follow suit. However, with technology allowing for rapid capital movement across borders, central banks no longer have control over where the newly printed money goes. With rates, thus returns, so low in the US, any attempt by the Fed to goose inflation with the printing press will fail because people borrow in Dollars at low rates then buy higher rate instruments in other nations. The rates are so low that it wipes out any risk cost of investing in underdeveloped regions.
The failure in the existing mainstream economics playbook is that it utterly ignores geographical effects. As such, because of the rise of the Internet and computerization, a nation with low rates of interest can now expect low inflation because the currency is seeking higher rate returns elsewhere.
If the Fed really wanted to drive up inflation, they could accomplish that by raising interest rates. All that new money would decide that the US is now a better place to park that cash because returns are now higher.
Basically, we imported asset bubbles. I think its @hisa who rants about the looming sovereign debt crisis, this is it.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Kenya not at risk of debt distress - IMFQuote:Mr Morales said that as long as the budget deficit – set at 8.7 per cent in the annual 2015/16 Budget – remains the same and the economy is growing at the current pace, Kenyans need not worry about the ability to repay the debt.  Praying hard for KE not to listen to these goons! $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/16/2014 Posts: 1,420 Location: Bohemian Grove
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hisah wrote:Kenya not at risk of debt distress - IMFQuote:Mr Morales said that as long as the budget deficit – set at 8.7 per cent in the annual 2015/16 Budget – remains the same and the economy is growing at the current pace, Kenyans need not worry about the ability to repay the debt. Praying hard for KE not to listen to these goons! It's like asking a barber if you should get a haircut.
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/13/2006 Posts: 123
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ati imf! do you forget that the same people IMF gave us so called structural reform in the 1990's and killed our economy. thriving agricultural and industrial sectors were opened up and killed in the process for the benefit of the west! we yet again loose our fiscal and financial independence by heavily borrowing from these goons! the Kenyan economy was made healthy during the kibaki regime to the extent that most of our external borrowing and mishaps of the kanu regime was settled. look at the progress that jubilee have given us!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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hisah wrote:Kenya not at risk of debt distress - IMFQuote:Mr Morales said that as long as the budget deficit – set at 8.7 per cent in the annual 2015/16 Budget – remains the same and the economy is growing at the current pace, Kenyans need not worry about the ability to repay the debt. Praying hard for KE not to listen to these goons! I'm afraid we already crossed that bridge some time back. From here onwards it is going to be more of a dictation than a consultation on how to run the economy. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: User Joined: 1/20/2014 Posts: 3,528
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pops wrote:ati imf! do you forget that the same people IMF gave us so called structural reform in the 1990's and killed our economy. thriving agricultural and industrial sectors were opened up and killed in the process for the benefit of the west! we yet again loose our fiscal and financial independence by heavily borrowing from these goons! the Kenyan economy was made healthy during the kibaki regime to the extent that most of our external borrowing and mishaps of the kanu regime was settled. look at the progress that jubilee have given us! progress and jubilee in the same paragraph castigating IMF. ISOKEI!!! Formal education will make you a living. Self-education will make you a fortune - Jim Rohn.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/16/2014 Posts: 1,420 Location: Bohemian Grove
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I'm told Namibia will introduce a "Solidarity Tax" for everybody earning above $450.This is to support some poverty eradication program.Since the taxman here in Kenya is also increasing taxes, Is there is any country that is having smart ways of dealing with the current economic downturn instead of increasing taxes?
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Rank: User Joined: 8/15/2013 Posts: 13,237 Location: Vacuum
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whiteowl wrote:I'm told Namibia will introduce a "Solidarity Tax" for everybody earning above $450.This is to support some poverty eradication program.Since the taxman here in Kenya is also increasing taxes, Is there is any country that is having smart ways of dealing with the current economic downturn instead of increasing taxes? Zambia seems to be doing fineIf Obiero did it, Who Am I?
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Swenani wrote:whiteowl wrote:I'm told Namibia will introduce a "Solidarity Tax" for everybody earning above $450.This is to support some poverty eradication program.Since the taxman here in Kenya is also increasing taxes, Is there is any country that is having smart ways of dealing with the current economic downturn instead of increasing taxes? Zambia seems to be doing fine Indeed. Faith without action is? Government launches the US$1 billion One Belt Chinese Investment platform
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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African Aviation: The key questionsQuote:African Airlines Association (AFRAA) secretary general, Dr Elijah Chingosho, tells Victoria Moores about state of the industry ahead of this month's Annual General Assembly (AGA) in Brazzaville, capital of the Democratic Republic of Congo - See more at: http://www.africanaerosp...ter#sthash.KzsigaHV.dpuf
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Indeed. It's to turn the tide. Ethiopia is welcoming the investors Kenya has frustrated http://www.nation.co.ke/...990/-/cbjjj/-/index.html
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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The sector walking on the straight narrow; No pumus... Prof. grew the sector now it's to line it up. Banks to be investigated for failing to cut interest rates on loans in the face of an improved fiscal environment http://www.nation.co.ke/...76/-/lk51wa/-/index.html
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,702 Location: NAIROBI
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@CdeMonomotapa Hiyo ni hot air;the biggest culprit for rising interest rates is GOK. January there will be massive borrowing so expect interest rates to go up Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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