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alutacontinua		#5071 Posted : Thursday, January 12, 2017 12:05:13 PM
Rank: Member Joined: 3/23/2011 Posts: 304		Following Trumps first Press Conference since July yesterday the market has experienced an increase in volatility: -DXY currently under 101. (USDJPY under 114) -Gold just broke above $1200. - US 10yr yield holding just above the November low. - DowJones still hasn't hit 20k Thinking this could be the start of unwinding of the Trump election win... You dont have to be great to START but you have to start to be GREAT!!!!!!!!
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hisah		#5072 Posted : Thursday, January 12, 2017 12:14:37 PM
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977		alutacontinua wrote: Following Trumps first Press Conference since July yesterday the market has experienced an increase in volatility: -DXY currently under 101. (USDJPY under 114) -Gold just broke above $1200. - US 10yr yield holding just above the November low. - DowJones still hasn't hit 20k Thinking this could be the start of unwinding of the Trump election win... Dow and USD need a breather to reload more bid power. My target for Dow is 22000 by year end. The USD will resume its rally when the big euroland elections upsets eventually materialize. As long as the euro$ is heading sub 1.00 the USD will keep rallying. Update: Just had a relook at the long term chart. If the Dow gets to 22000 or above then a top will likely set in as the Trump rally runs out of steam. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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lochaz-index		#5073 Posted : Thursday, January 12, 2017 6:08:14 PM
Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127		hisah wrote: alutacontinua wrote: Following Trumps first Press Conference since July yesterday the market has experienced an increase in volatility: -DXY currently under 101. (USDJPY under 114) -Gold just broke above $1200. - US 10yr yield holding just above the November low. - DowJones still hasn't hit 20k Thinking this could be the start of unwinding of the Trump election win... Dow and USD need a breather to reload more bid power. My target for Dow is 22000 by year end. The USD will resume its rally when the big euroland elections upsets eventually materialize. As long as the euro$ is heading sub 1.00 the USD will keep rallying. Update: Just had a relook at the long term chart. If the Dow gets to 22000 or above then a top will likely set in as the Trump rally runs out of steam. US stocks could very well outrun their fundamentals especially with the euro and the EU collapsing. Hedge funds have been cash biased for a while and might just decide to jump in the fray adding to the bidside precipated by capital inflows. Most likely that rally will be short and intense before the inevitable crash whose timing has wrongfooted so many analysts. My favorite EU election is the French one due to the odds stacked against Le Pen. This is closely followed by the German version. Italy appears to have - in the short term - dodged a mine field of a snap election via a court ruling. That would have made for an awesome hatrick against the establishment/EU coming from its biggest constituent economies in the same year. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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lochaz-index		#5074 Posted : Monday, January 16, 2017 3:40:29 PM
Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127		lochaz-index wrote: lochaz-index wrote: lochaz-index wrote: The naira has been through one tough roller coaster. The official devaluation downgraded it from 190 to 300+ vs the dollar in four months(June through to September) whilst the black market rate is still north of 400 having clocked a gruesome 436 about two weeks ago. Having extended a zero interest loan to Nigeria, the IMF is pressing for further debasement and a fuel hike. http://www.vanguardngr.c...itions-tough-handle-fg/ KE has taken two precautionary loans in two years, will it find itself in the same predicament in one years time? African currencies are having a torrid time especially the ones with fixed pegs. The Egyptian pound is falling like a rock and is still expected to fall some more. Quote: Abdel Aal expects the CBE to follow the controlled flotation and drop the Egyptian pound’s value down against the US dollar by 30%, either once or twice. More fx expenditures than revenue means the CBE doesn't have the ammo to float the currency despite the IMF's insistence. The next 18-24 months are promising to be excruciating for developing economies and their currencies more so the African ones. The fx market is a reliable pulse reader of coming moves in the financial world. Recent actions imply some heavy weight action is on the way probably in the bond market. http://www.dailynewsegyp...ial-request-borrow-imf/ Take 3: at the bottom of the the sovereign bond barrel, Mozambique officially issues an SOS to its creditors. Will it be a soft default via debt restructuring as so desired or an outright default? Either way it has good company in the form of Venezuela. Their debt to GDP ratio is projected to close at 130% by end of 2016. A developed nation can try to juggle this kind of debt, but for a developing economy it is toxic. This has grown from 62.4% in 2014, 53.1% in 2013 and 38.1% in 2011. Ring a bell? KE had better watch out. Things went south in a two year window and now they are in distress. The metical lost 30% vs the dollar in 2015 and a further 70% this year which ballooned their debt. With inflation at a scorching 16.7% (from 2.4% in 2015), the BdM has hiked its rate to circa 23%. http://www.wsj.com/artic...estructuring-1477418742 EA economies and currencies have held their ground quite admirably in 2016, will they manage the same feat? Outright default it is for Mozambique! They can't hack the first coupon payment. Bond prices have plummeted to 54.9 cents on the dollar while yields have risen to 25.81%. https://www.bloomberg.co...-eurobond-ministry-says Official default is to be registered on Wednesday 18th January 2017. Venezuela should not be that far behind on this. Meanwhile, both EM and FM assets are selling off caused by the news of the imminent default. 2017 is going to be a tough year for both these markets. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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hisah		#5075 Posted : Wednesday, January 25, 2017 5:17:52 PM
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977		ECB: Any country leaving eurozone must settle bill first Quote: Any country leaving the eurozone would have to settle its claims or debts with the bloc’s payments system before severing ties, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi has said. It coincides with a groundswell of anti-euro sentiment in Italy and other eurozone states, fuelled in part by last June’s unprecedented decision by the United Kingdom to leave the EU. “If a country were to leave the Eurosystem, its national central bank’s claims on or liabilities to the ECB would need to be settled in full,” Draghi said in the letter. The question now is not if, but when will the euro die?! $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah		#5076 Posted : Wednesday, January 25, 2017 5:39:42 PM
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977		Dow finally scales above 20,000 handle. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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murchr		#5077 Posted : Wednesday, January 25, 2017 5:41:31 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980		hisah wrote: Dow finally scales above 20,000 handle. Interesting! Capital flight to US? "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore .
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lochaz-index		#5078 Posted : Wednesday, January 25, 2017 7:58:34 PM
Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127		hisah wrote: ECB: Any country leaving eurozone must settle bill first Quote: Any country leaving the eurozone would have to settle its claims or debts with the bloc’s payments system before severing ties, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi has said. It coincides with a groundswell of anti-euro sentiment in Italy and other eurozone states, fuelled in part by last June’s unprecedented decision by the United Kingdom to leave the EU. “If a country were to leave the Eurosystem, its national central bank’s claims on or liabilities to the ECB would need to be settled in full,” Draghi said in the letter. The question now is not if, but when will the euro die?! ECB clutching on straws. Resorting to threats and ultimatums to keep member states in the euro/EU is a sure sign of desperation and it still doesn't stop any of them from defaulting on their liabilities. Tough 2017 for the old continent. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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lochaz-index		#5079 Posted : Thursday, January 26, 2017 6:39:33 PM
Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127		Despite the doomsday predictions on the consequences of brexit, the UK posted a 2% GDP growth with H2 (post brexit) accelerating faster than H1. Quote: Alan Clarke, of Scotiabank, noted that the first six months since the Brexit vote had seen growth of almost 2.5% annualised, which is above the economy’s trend rate. “Clearly, life goes on, despite the Brexit vote.” https://www.theguardian....ures-2016-brexit-economy The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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lochaz-index		#5080 Posted : Thursday, January 26, 2017 9:16:21 PM
Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127		For most of Europe, I think there is a huge iceberg called default risk that is masquerading as inflation expectations in bond yields. Quote: With eurozone growth and inflation expectations picking up, policy makers and market participants are starting to ask when the ECB’s extraordinary monetary stimulus measures will end. The ECB’s negative interest-rate policy and massive bond-buying program have been key in pushing bond yields lower. But such measures, aimed at stimulating growth and inflation, may be less warranted if both are starting to gain momentum. http://www.wsj.com/artic...ds-1j485449912?mod=e2tw A small uptick in commodity prices is not sufficient to reflate their economies. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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