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what next for KENRE & KQ?
VituVingiSana
#81 Posted : Thursday, July 15, 2010 11:15:58 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,135
Location: Nairobi
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Paul the Octopus... After that amazing run is my football 'god'... LOLest...

Then suarez should call his 'save' the 'Tentacles of god'
Si, maradona is jealous that Suarez was not an Argentinian player... Remember the "Hand of god"???
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
guru267
#82 Posted : Thursday, July 15, 2010 11:52:15 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
@the deal i know you probably have an affiliation to southern african firms.... But after CFC's and jubilees half year results you'll realise there is no need to go that far...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
StatMeister
#83 Posted : Friday, July 16, 2010 9:25:26 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/23/2010
Posts: 868
Location: La Islas Galápagos
PKoli wrote:
@StatMeister
Unless they quacks, the pricing of premiums should be able to cover claims. Unless you are forecasting the referendum to be like pev. What is the work of actuaries in the re-insurance companies?


@pkoli, actuarial models require that risk events be uncorrelated. Weather, earthquakes, PEV, etc means losses are realized at once, making the modelling (and hence pricing)of the underlying risks un-insurable.

BTW, in the US, such risks are insured by the US Government, not by insurance companies. Ditto, political risks should be insured by the GoK not by private companies (the premium being the taxes we pay). But it is understandable GoK cannot insure them as they are spending all the tax money on the MPigs . . .
A bad day fishing is better than a good day at work
VituVingiSana
#84 Posted : Friday, July 16, 2010 9:29:09 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,135
Location: Nairobi
guru267 wrote:
@the deal i know you probably have an affiliation to southern african firms.... But after CFC's and jubilees half year results you'll realise there is no need to go that far...
South African firms may be larger but in Kenya they have met their match!

Castle/SAB vs EABL/Guinness: EABL
CFCStanbic vs Equity or NIC or DTBK: Not CFCSB
Metro Supermarkets vs Nakumatt: Nakumatt
SAA (subsidized by GoSA) vs KQ: KQ

I really can't think of any SA business that has done well in Kenya except the BMWs & Mercs but these are controlled by Germans!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
StatMeister
#85 Posted : Friday, July 16, 2010 10:58:07 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/23/2010
Posts: 868
Location: La Islas Galápagos
@pkoli, tell me more about CIC - price and that story abount class A/B . . .
A bad day fishing is better than a good day at work
PKoli
#86 Posted : Friday, July 16, 2010 11:33:44 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
@StatMeister,

CiC for many years has been insuring mainly the sacco societies. It is now branching out to insure other businesses, both life and general. The sacco business is good as evidenced by growth of the cooperative movement in Kenya - the strongest in Africa.

The shares were offered for private placed a couple of years ago. CiC is mainly owned by cooperative socities - class A and members of cooperatives class B. Class B are the ones who bought during the private placement. They do not have voting powers like class A.

Lately, CiC have been doing a lot of marketing and I believe they are gearing for listing.

The shares trade on OTC and price range from 30 to 40 bob. For a share whose eps is 11, I think that is a bargain price.

As you knoe OTC is through paper certificates. The shares are a little scarse to obtain.

Note: you have to be a member of the cooperative society in order to purchase - just like Coop bank in the pre-listing times.

Suntra and African Alliance are their agents.

Good luck
the deal
#87 Posted : Friday, July 16, 2010 11:42:22 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
VituVingiSana wrote:
guru267 wrote:
@the deal i know you probably have an affiliation to southern african firms.... But after CFC's and jubilees half year results you'll realise there is no need to go that far...
South African firms may be larger but in Kenya they have met their match!

Castle/SAB vs EABL/Guinness: EABL
CFCStanbic vs Equity or NIC or DTBK: Not CFCSB
Metro Supermarkets vs Nakumatt: Nakumatt
SAA (subsidized by GoSA) vs KQ: KQ

I really can't think of any SA business that has done well in Kenya except the BMWs & Mercs but these are controlled by Germans!

@VVS you went out of the topic...we are talking insurance firms here...definitely you cant compare bogus PanAfrica to Sanlam or Jubilee to Old Mutual SA even Old Mutual Namibia is far much better than Jubilee...
StatMeister
#88 Posted : Friday, July 16, 2010 11:42:25 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/23/2010
Posts: 868
Location: La Islas Galápagos
@pkoli, thanx . . . sounds like my goose is cooked. I have to look for a SACCO to register with ASAP

Do you know any other good counters trading OTC?
A bad day fishing is better than a good day at work
VituVingiSana
#89 Posted : Friday, July 16, 2010 12:10:31 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,135
Location: Nairobi
@the deal said: @VVS you went out of the topic...we are talking insurance firms here...definitely you cant compare bogus PanAfrica to Sanlam or Jubilee to Old Mutual SA even Old Mutual Namibia is far much better than Jubilee...

My rejoinder:

1) PanAfrica is 50%+ owned by Sanlam. Yep... PAI is just as bogus as its parent!

2) Jubilee was not allowed expand (forex restrictions, etc) until 10-15 ago. BTW, S.Africa economy is much, much larger than Kenya

3) Old Mutual is no longer 'South African' I think the primary listing is in London. On JSE as a secondary listing. Please check this for me.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
PKoli
#90 Posted : Friday, July 16, 2010 1:19:03 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
@StatMeister,


I was keen to look at TransCentury but I lost interest along the way, there was Family Finance too, but I qm not sure. Suntra has quiet a number. I had a list in my comp in Nairobi but I am way till Sunday. Check with Suntra for further info.
PKoli
#91 Posted : Friday, July 16, 2010 1:28:55 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
@StatMeister,

Joining SACCO for you is imminent. I ng'ethiad during CIC private placement. The shares were going for 22.5 a piece and I just too a few. I have been chasing them but it is difficult getting them.
PKoli
#92 Posted : Friday, July 16, 2010 1:40:49 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
StatMeister,
I am amzed that the actuarial models do not capture weather events. It would be understable for earthquakea due to unpredictability nature of such events. I thought that models should look at frequency of occurence of certain extreme weather events and price premiums accordingly. We live with nature and its extreme occurences.
StatMeister
#93 Posted : Friday, July 16, 2010 3:49:27 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/23/2010
Posts: 868
Location: La Islas Galápagos
PKoli wrote:
StatMeister,
I am amzed that the actuarial models do not capture weather events. It would be understable for earthquakea due to unpredictability nature of such events. I thought that models should look at frequency of occurence of certain extreme weather events and price premiums accordingly. We live with nature and its extreme occurences.


@pkoli, the models would capture it, and price the premium at high levels, say 70% of insured loss (does it make sense to part with so large sums when you can just put it in t bills?)

What insurance does not do is insure correlated risks.

Example: consider an employer having 100 employees insured for 1m each, and having a fleet of 50 vehicles insured for 2m each.

If one person dies (1m life cover) does not mean another person dies. Hence remaining 99 continue to pay premiums which pay for 1st person's loss.

Now think of PEV, if they burn 1 vehicle, why would they not burn the remaining 99? If that happens, no premiums hence losses have to be paid from capital account (remember the 500m minimum).

Its this herd effect that makes such un-insurable, atleast at the enterprise level.
A bad day fishing is better than a good day at work
PKoli
#94 Posted : Friday, July 16, 2010 4:15:56 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
@StatMeister,


Thanks for the info and illustration. This is complicated no wonder they have to employ actuaries.
StatMeister
#95 Posted : Friday, July 16, 2010 4:50:53 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/23/2010
Posts: 868
Location: La Islas Galápagos
PKoli wrote:
@StatMeister,


Thanks for the info and illustration. This is complicated no wonder they have to employ actuaries.


@pkoli, thats why am not looking at Kenya Re before referendum.

After that, I'll be into them up to my neck! Ask me why . . .
A bad day fishing is better than a good day at work
the deal
#96 Posted : Friday, July 16, 2010 5:36:25 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
amazing Kenya Re and KCB are the worst perfoming counters on the NSE between January-JULy 2010...
StatMeister
#97 Posted : Friday, July 16, 2010 5:49:30 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/23/2010
Posts: 868
Location: La Islas Galápagos
KCB moved steadily from 30 backwards to 23 (rights) backwards to 17 (rights) - 75% decrease in each case. I assume if they want another rights, the price will be 75%*17 = 12.75 . . . .No wonder I lost interest in this counter.

As for Kenya Re (and all insurances), revaluations of investments (mostly quoted stocks) will show appreciation which show on the P&L as profit . . .fantastic virtual growth as we saw in centum
A bad day fishing is better than a good day at work
PKoli
#98 Posted : Friday, July 16, 2010 6:46:02 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
StatMeister,

True KCB in particular has been panished by investors the same way CFC. The guys who stayed put in CFC, I included have reaped about 90%. I will wait for 50%
qw25041985
#99 Posted : Friday, July 16, 2010 7:12:36 PM
Rank: User


Joined: 5/9/2010
Posts: 1,418
Location: Nai
@staitmeister. Why ?
Your future depends on your dreams so go to sleep !
qw25041985
#100 Posted : Friday, July 16, 2010 8:15:01 PM
Rank: User


Joined: 5/9/2010
Posts: 1,418
Location: Nai
@staitmeister. Why ?
Your future depends on your dreams so go to sleep !
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