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KCB results not so impressive:
VituVingiSana
#41 Posted : Friday, February 26, 2010 7:41:14 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,347
Location: Nairobi
Kamzee wrote:
I still do not understand why the need of the additional 15b when they had a rights issue recently?
Is it a case of blatant inefficiency and the obviously below average customer service hidden by beautiful adverts all over?


Several reasons (I speculate):
- Tighter capital requirements post-2008 crisis
- Basel II requirements
- Expansion (regional) means 'new banks' need to be setup. I dont mean just buildings but entirely new capital needs, HR, systems, licenses, etc
- Cover losses from expansion. Only Sudan made money. UG, TZ, RW all made losses. Tough markets with loads of competition.

I dont think KCB will raise all 15bn in one go... but probably in tranches like BBK did... a few billion a time...

Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mkonomtupu
#42 Posted : Friday, February 26, 2010 7:47:00 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
Kamzee wrote:
Why are you guys so much on the case of KCB?However, what I still do not understand why the need of the additional 15b when they had a rights issue recently?
Is it a case of blatant inefficiency and the obviously below average customer service hidden by beautiful adverts all over?


KCB is like an A student bringing home a C+ report.
The rights issue is needed because the capital adequacy is at 14.9%. KCB is taking a lot of deposits so it needs to expand its capital base to satisfy the CBK requirements.
It's a buy, buy for me. The west africans supported UBA and Ecobank let's do the same.
Wa_ithaka
#43 Posted : Friday, February 26, 2010 7:52:37 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 1/7/2010
Posts: 1,279
Location: nbi
When will KCB's regional expansion start paying off (apart South Sudan)? Has TZ broken even almost 10yrs since KCb went there? Why do they continue to run this bank with huge potential like a parastatal?
The Governor of Nyeri - 2017
kizee
#44 Posted : Friday, February 26, 2010 8:01:16 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/9/2008
Posts: 537
can anyone tell me how they think kcb will grow their top line? in 09 they really tightend their belts and cut costs....decided to do a retrenchment in 2010...so once all this is done where do u guys see the growth come in? what is kcb doing different to justify a higher return? btw issuing a note adds an interest cost element to the p&l that didnt exist prior...a 15 yr note at a conservative 10pct means an extra cost of 150mio a year in interest...so the subsidiaries invested in wud need to make at least 150mio per year to justify the investment...at the moment subs are makin a net loss of 100mio with no clear indication of a change in fortunes...i wudnt touch kcb with a ten trillion foot pole at the moment
Gordon Gekko
#45 Posted : Friday, February 26, 2010 8:25:49 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
My fear is that I will not be able to defend my position at the rights issue. I'm guessing a rights price of ksh 15.
Scubidu
#46 Posted : Friday, February 26, 2010 8:43:22 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
@vvs. So ABSA is not the agent for Barclays Bank Plc…BBK management is autonomous? Most multinationals are running things from SA.

I wonder why most people think KCB can grow it’s top-line, its loans in 2009 were more than SCBK and BBK combined…their loan history speaks volumes…19 bn loaned in 2007…29 bn in 2008…27 bn in 2009…is this growth suddenly going to disappear this year (during expected 4% GDP growth) and head straight for Equity, SCBK and BBK…restructuring is at on full swing, inflation is low and expansion is through, MD said so himself, so expenses ratios will not be significantly higher…

btw did you guys notice insider loans…that’s something worrying me, almost reaching 18% of net loan book…who are these shareholders borrowings massive loans?
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
VituVingiSana
#47 Posted : Friday, February 26, 2010 9:27:00 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,347
Location: Nairobi
Scubidu wrote:
@vvs. So ABSA is not the agent for Barclays Bank Plc…BBK management is autonomous? Most multinationals are running things from SA.

I think (check it out) Barclays PLC owns 60% of ABSA. I dont pay attention to PLC or ABSA coz no shares in them...
BBK's (I have shares) parent is PLC not ABSA...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#48 Posted : Friday, February 26, 2010 9:30:42 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,347
Location: Nairobi
mkonomtupu wrote:
Kamzee wrote:
Why are you guys so much on the case of KCB?


KCB is like an A student bringing home a C+ report.
The rights issue is needed because the capital adequacy is at 14.9%. KCB is taking a lot of deposits so it needs to expand its capital base to satisfy the CBK requirements.
It's a buy, buy for me. The west africans supported UBA and Ecobank let's do the same.

I like the analogy!

As for support... I was badly chomeka'd during the last Rights @25... so to be honest I am out of cash...

As for 'support'... invest in the best not based on nationality... I will have to decide whether my money will make me more money in KCB or other stocks...

Today, I am moving into KPLC... I see better growth for my cash there... [And I can be patriotic tho that is secondary!]
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#49 Posted : Friday, February 26, 2010 9:32:04 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,347
Location: Nairobi
Gordon Gekko wrote:
My fear is that I will not be able to defend my position at the rights issue. I'm guessing a rights price of ksh 15.

LOL... I got burnt at 25/- Rights Issue in 2008 so same here...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#50 Posted : Friday, February 26, 2010 9:43:50 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,347
Location: Nairobi
kizee wrote:

can anyone tell me how they think kcb will grow their top line?
retrenchment in 2010...so once all this is done where do u guys see the growth come in?
what is kcb doing different to justify a higher return?
a 15 yr note at a conservative 10pct means an extra cost of 150mio a year in interest...so the subsidiaries invested in wud need to make at least 150mio per year to justify the investment...at the moment subs are makin a net loss of 100mio with no clear indication of a change in fortunes

Good questions:
- Can anyone tell me how they think kcb will grow their top line?
Well, I think the loan growth will translate into higher earnings as long as KCB keeps bad debts down & maintains/expands NIM. Growth will come from the CORE business of lending. The rest (forex income, commissions) are all icing...
- The retrenchment is about 'rightsizing'... OK, I dont like to use these terms but KCB needs savvier/knowledgeable/friendlier employeess not the civil service wazee...
- I see KCB pushing for more slef-service options like ATMs & online banking
- what is kcb doing different to justify a higher return?
No idea! Yet... waiting for AGM
- KCB hopes Rw, Ug Tz become profitable in 2010. Sometimes it takes time to build up a brand.

Example: KenolKobil slowly built up its regional business by acquisitions & as new entrants. Ethiopia (80+ stations) still loses cash (or makes very little) but the expectations are high. After 7 years, KK's regional subsidiaries (current) ROI has exceeded Kenya!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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