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NSE SHARES PERFORMANCE: THREE YEAR FORECAST WITH 2012 IN MIND
the deal
#81 Posted : Tuesday, February 16, 2010 11:49:24 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
with this political inferno sukari might dip back to 7....panic+profit taking=downward spiral....
VituVingiSana
#82 Posted : Tuesday, February 16, 2010 12:55:18 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,218
Location: Nairobi
guru267 wrote:
DAMN!! have wazurians seen KCB's profit target for 2010????
there targeting 9billion PBT which is a 55% increase from last year... i would really like to see them meet this target cos the share price will EXPLODE!!

Where is the profit target? Where did you see it? I have been busy all day & not checked news or online...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
guru267
#83 Posted : Tuesday, February 16, 2010 1:03:34 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
@VVS its on the story about the retrenchment.. the link is on the jobless thread
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
VituVingiSana
#84 Posted : Tuesday, February 16, 2010 1:44:40 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,218
Location: Nairobi
Saw it... asante...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Cicero
#85 Posted : Friday, February 19, 2010 7:18:53 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/7/2009
Posts: 111
I seem to have missed the announcement Olympia Capital made for their share to go up by by 15% today. Any one with any idea, please share. Does anyone have an idea when Uchumi will stop being "suspended" from trading in the NSE?d'oh!
Don't gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it...
2012
#86 Posted : Monday, February 22, 2010 7:38:45 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
And why isn't Equity going up? I thought the results and the .40 dividend were good enough. What price could the guys selling have bought at?

BBI will solve it
:)
VituVingiSana
#87 Posted : Monday, February 22, 2010 8:04:08 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,218
Location: Nairobi
2012 wrote:
And why isn't Equity going up? I thought the results and the .40 dividend were good enough. What price could the guys selling have bought at?

Does it matter? They could be selling for a host of reasons including the need for cash...

Safaricom was sold to us at 5/- yet for 1 year (post-IPO) it sold for LESS than 5/-...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
2012
#88 Posted : Monday, February 22, 2010 8:12:52 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:

Does it matter? They could be selling for a host of reasons including the need for cash....


I just thought people would hold and sell after book closure sometime in March...

BBI will solve it
:)
mwala
#89 Posted : Monday, February 22, 2010 8:35:19 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/22/2008
Posts: 79
2012 wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:

Does it matter? They could be selling for a host of reasons including the need for cash....


I just thought people would hold and sell after book closure sometime in March...

When is the exact date they are closing their books,i have been fishing for the exact date they are closing but to no avail,anyone with this info please send it over
VituVingiSana
#90 Posted : Monday, February 22, 2010 8:45:26 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,218
Location: Nairobi
mwala wrote:
2012 wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:

Does it matter? They could be selling for a host of reasons including the need for cash....


I just thought people would hold and sell after book closure sometime in March...

When is the exact date they are closing their books,i have been fishing for the exact date they are closing but to no avail,anyone with this info please send it over

I think the books would close after the AGM. No idea but that announcement should be out soon. This would be an interesting AGM in view of the huge increase in the Loan Book.

I would not mind the AGM in May 2010 (after the announcement of the 1Q 2010 results)
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mwala
#91 Posted : Monday, February 22, 2010 8:57:42 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/22/2008
Posts: 79
@ elder why do you think it will be an interesting AGM o account of a huge increase in the loan book.
VituVingiSana
#92 Posted : Monday, February 22, 2010 9:20:01 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,218
Location: Nairobi
mwala wrote:
@ elder why do you think it will be an interesting AGM o account of a huge increase in the loan book.

Interesting in a good way... getting to know where EB is headed... Except for the potential (huge) losses, they are also headed for huge gains in interest income...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
guru267
#93 Posted : Monday, February 22, 2010 9:27:19 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
@VVS you are definately right with the size of EB'S loan book things are definately looking good especially if the non performing loans start perfoming again...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
VituVingiSana
#94 Posted : Monday, February 22, 2010 9:35:59 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,218
Location: Nairobi
guru267 wrote:
@VVS you are definately right with the size of EB'S loan book things are definately looking good especially if the non performing loans start perfoming again...

Most NPLs do not start performing... what happens is:
1)They are restructured which normally means window dressing. There are a few exceptions e.g. Uchumi but it required ADDITIONAL funding by GoK.
2)Liquidation. The NPL is provided for while the assest/collateral sold to get back as much as possible. The court cases can take 5 years to reach a conclusion.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
2012
#95 Posted : Monday, February 22, 2010 9:47:05 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
mwala wrote:
When is the exact date they are closing their books,i have been fishing for the exact date they are closing but to no avail,anyone with this info please send it over


Books close 25th March. Payment 9th April.

BBI will solve it
:)
guru267
#96 Posted : Monday, February 22, 2010 9:57:51 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:

Most NPLs do not start performing... what happens is:
1)They are restructured which normally means window dressing. There are a few exceptions e.g. Uchumi but it required ADDITIONAL funding by GoK.
2)Liquidation. The NPL is provided for while the assest/collateral sold to get back as much as possible. The court cases can take 5 years to reach a conclusion.



i know what happens with the NPLs but you seem to be talking about loans to companies and big businesses...
the loans i was saying would start perfoming again were for example the farmers that were affected by the drought... EB deals with a large number of farmers dont they???
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
guru267
#97 Posted : Monday, February 22, 2010 10:22:17 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:


I am a fan of KPLC... and I watch it closely... yet I am looking at 18-24 months yet the failure of rains is scary...


@VVS i've also placed a large bet on this stock... how is the weather over there.. dont tell me it hasnt been raining??? its been storming like crazy over here in kla...

by the way i was reading KETRACO's mandate and it seems set to reduce KPLC's costs and debt take up in the long term because it will be setting up all the transmission lines and then handing management of the assets to KPLC...

so in actual sense KPLC earns all the cheddar but doesnt pay a dime for set up...

what do you think???
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
VituVingiSana
#98 Posted : Monday, February 22, 2010 10:30:43 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,218
Location: Nairobi
guru267 wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:

Most NPLs do not start performing... what happens is:
1)They are restructured which normally means window dressing. There are a few exceptions e.g. Uchumi but it required ADDITIONAL funding by GoK.
2)Liquidation. The NPL is provided for while the assest/collateral sold to get back as much as possible. The court cases can take 5 years to reach a conclusion.

i know what happens with the NPLs but you seem to be talking about loans to companies and big businesses...
the loans i was saying would start perfoming again were for example the farmers that were affected by the drought... EB deals with a large number of farmers dont they???

Loans to farmers is a tough one... A farmer who loses the crop/harvest can't really make it up just coz it rains the next season... And the rains have not been sufficient...

In Kenya, according to a very senior banker, agricultural loans are not considered delinquent for upto 1 year (or even 2 years) coz of crop patterns BUT even he acknowledged that the policy means just pushing out the bad debts...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Wa_ithaka
#99 Posted : Monday, February 22, 2010 11:33:00 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/7/2010
Posts: 1,279
Location: nbi
VVs- some bs i need to correct. Equity actually recognises all its npls equally (I believe 90 days of non-repayments). That is why if you recall 2 yrs, we had a lot of Safcom IPO guarantors complaining about getting those guarantees called in by Equity.
For farmers, a loan will become npl if its not repaid as scheduled i.e. on the date after harvest payments are due. Once a loan becomes NPL, there are variuos ways of proceeding with it. You can write-off a portion of it and reschedule the rest based on wether forecasts and discussions with farmers concerned. Write-off the whole amount...
The Governor of Nyeri - 2017
VituVingiSana
#100 Posted : Monday, February 22, 2010 11:47:33 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,218
Location: Nairobi
Wa_ithaka wrote:
VVs- some bs i need to correct. Equity actually recognises all its npls equally (I believe 90 days of non-repayments). That is why if you recall 2 yrs, we had a lot of Safcom IPO guarantors complaining about getting those guarantees called in by Equity.
For farmers, a loan will become npl if its not repaid as scheduled i.e. on the date after harvest payments are due. Once a loan becomes NPL, there are variuos ways of proceeding with it. You can write-off a portion of it and reschedule the rest based on wether forecasts and discussions with farmers concerned. Write-off the whole amount...

I was not targetting Equity but overall banks who lend to farmers.
This is what the banker told me:

1) They do not expect repayment until harvest (say 6-9 months after lending)... so a loan going bad (coz it does not rain) is already 6-9 months out. Still considered 'good' loans. No provisions.

2) When the repayment fails, they give the farmer 3 months (so now at 9-12 months) to find alternates. Then classified as NPLs but not provided for. All loans are graded 1-5 but only provided for if 4 or 5.

3) If the farmer still can't pay, then they enter into settlement negotiations with the farmer. Provisions are then made. The loan will not be written off unless there is no chance of recovery.


Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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