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Taking positions for 2010
VituVingiSana
#81 Posted : Friday, February 05, 2010 7:11:20 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,135
Location: Nairobi
To those who have been asking. There is something GOOD going on at KQ

http://www.bloomberg.com...116&sid=aMlzm6Me_INE
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Jaguar
#82 Posted : Friday, February 05, 2010 7:33:17 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/7/2007
Posts: 263
Location: humu humu
kcb & nic also seem to be waking up
VituVingiSana
#83 Posted : Friday, February 05, 2010 3:01:34 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,135
Location: Nairobi
5 Jan 2010

KQ @ 52 (though I saw closing trades at 54/-)
KPLC @ 150
Williamson @130
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#84 Posted : Friday, February 26, 2010 6:42:47 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,135
Location: Nairobi
26 Feb 2010 (Early AM trading)

KQ @ 49.50 (initial target was 43/-)
KPLC @ 172 (target ending 31 Dec 2011 was 200)
Williamson @135 (Target was 200 but after 2010 results are released)

I am comfy with KPLC target price but I am not sure whether Williamson will make the 200/- price though I am confident about their profits for 2009-10 will be excellent.

KQ seems to be doing OK. Even with additional competition in the domestic market, they keep adding new routes (except for enough aircraft) in the African market.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
guru267
#85 Posted : Tuesday, March 02, 2010 12:32:34 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
judging from the way the market seems to be trading after the company announcement it looks like the bulls are starting to take positions big time...

i cant believe BAT traded 130 million worth of shares today...

my friends!! we have a bull market arriving... those who dont believe me can just watch from the sidelines...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
VituVingiSana
#86 Posted : Friday, March 05, 2010 2:52:12 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,135
Location: Nairobi
5 March 2010

KQ @ 47.25 (initial target was 43/-). KQ has been dropping from the high of 55/- but the 3Q numbers were decent (though not spectacular) & with gains in oil prices the hedges should contribute to profits for 2009-10.
KPLC @ 165 (target ending 31 Dec 2011 was 200). I am quite confident of this. The restructuring is the elephant in the room but that will not stop the ascent once it starts in earnest.

Williamson @177 (Target was 200 but after 2010 results are released). Tea prices have no dipped much even with increased production. I expect WTK to have their best year (2009-10).
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
the deal
#87 Posted : Saturday, March 06, 2010 7:15:00 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
@ vvs how come KPLC has a low p/b value and a low pge value...yet earnings are on the rise...is it that seriously undervalued?...this is one stock i want to raid...
mwanafunzi
#88 Posted : Saturday, March 06, 2010 8:14:13 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 12/3/2008
Posts: 113
i came.. i saw kakuzi at 30 undevalued indeed failed to concour now the bus has gone.which other stock is likely to behave the same.what are the fundamentals on sameer.
cnn
#89 Posted : Saturday, March 06, 2010 9:30:18 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 6/17/2009
Posts: 1,619
KPLC is seriously undervalued at current prices,the push up being held back by the restructring of GOK holding.Had they talked of the details being released in the first quarter?
guru267
#90 Posted : Saturday, March 06, 2010 10:16:09 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
@cnn i'm going to wait patiently since the first quarter ends this month so i expect to hear something between now and then... but KPLC mngmnt also said the whole restructuring would be complete by the end of June....

i still maintain my stance that KPLC is cheap relative to the market whether one takes up his rights or not... i'm just saying a diluted KPLC share still looks very cheap to me....
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
the deal
#91 Posted : Saturday, March 06, 2010 10:50:18 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
i did a little research i came across this:

imagine if the conversion occured this way:

Applause The theoretical diluted price, ie the price after an increase in the number of shares, can be calculated as
Theoretical Diluted Price = ((O x OP) +(N x IP)) / (O + N) where
O = original number of shares
OP = Current share price
N = number of new shares to be issued
IP = issue price of new shares
For example if there is a 3-for-10 issue, the current price is 50c, the issue price 32c, we have
O = 10, OP = 50c, N = 3, IP = 32c and TDP = ((10x50)+(3x32))/(10+3) = 45.85csmile

conclusion:as long as the issue price is below the current price...its good for the current shareholder...this is just my guess work...for KPLC i dont know what will happen...source wikipedia.
VituVingiSana
#92 Posted : Saturday, March 06, 2010 8:47:41 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,135
Location: Nairobi
the deal wrote:
@ vvs how come KPLC has a low p/b value and a low pge value...yet earnings are on the rise...is it that seriously undervalued?...this is one stock i want to raid...

Yes.

@cnn @guru - We will b laffing. I just bought MORE of KPLC at 165/-. Now I am dead broke!!! No cash!!!

@thedeal - If it does not hit 200/- (include dividends + gains from sale of Rights) by 31 Dec 2011... I will buy u lunch! (Pls note I have had a buy since it was 135/-). I am not greedy. If I get 15% annual I am happy!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#93 Posted : Monday, March 08, 2010 6:59:14 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,135
Location: Nairobi
8 March 2010 (AM Trading)

KQ @ 47/- (initial target was 43/-). KQ has dropped from its 2010 high of 55/-. The 3Q passenger numbers were decent, not spectacular, but KQ lacks aircraft to expand.
It should get a boost in June/July 2010 from the World Cup though this would be reflected in 2010-11 earnings.
Gains in oil prices since 31 March 20009 should benefit the hedge positions & contribute to profits for 2009-10.

KPLC @ 166 (target ending 31 Dec 2011 was 200/-). I think the sellers at this price point have exited. The balance sheet restructuring remains the major impediment to any significant upward movement but I think the upward momentum should start soon.

Williamson @192 (Target is 200/- but after 2010 results are released). Tea prices remain steady though I expect some weakening due to increased production. IMHO, 2009-10 will be WTK's best year to-date.
Note there are few sellers at these prices. All I await are the results for 2009-10 while I monitor tea prices in 2010-11.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
jimmy007
#94 Posted : Monday, March 08, 2010 7:02:23 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 3/8/2010
Posts: 5
Location: india
as far as from my advise Price targets are my exit points any time during the year. These may be revised as well.

KQ - Strong growth in destinations in 2009 & hopefully these translate into profits in 2010. The expensive hedges are burning off.
Horton
#95 Posted : Tuesday, March 09, 2010 6:41:28 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/30/2007
Posts: 1,558
Location: Nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
26 Feb 2010 (Early AM trading)

KQ @ 49.50 (initial target was 43/-)
KPLC @ 172 (target ending 31 Dec 2011 was 200)
Williamson @135 (Target was 200 but after 2010 results are released)

I am comfy with KPLC target price but I am not sure whether Williamson will make the 200/- price though I am confident about their profits for 2009-10 will be excellent.

KQ seems to be doing OK. Even with additional competition in the domestic market, they keep adding new routes (except for enough aircraft) in the African market.




@VVS congrats, WTK has asks of 210, should settle at the 200 mark.

What else are ya holding??

Im into MSC @5 (truckloads) Sold out almost everything though over the last week
KQ @27
Carb(not too many, although I would love to get a few more)
WTK @ 80

Cash
VituVingiSana
#96 Posted : Wednesday, March 10, 2010 10:19:29 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,135
Location: Nairobi
10 March 2010 (Noon trading)

KQ @ 50.50 (initial target was 43/-). Operating profits expected to be much better than 1H coz 1H was volatile & had strikes. Need new planes in 2010.

KPLC @ 178 (target ending 31 Dec 2011 was 200). Like a tortoise. Pole pole. Lots of disgruntled rumbling but great cashflow. Will jump after restructuring coz then clear path will be seen. Also split will make shares more 'affordable'.

Williamson @180 (Target was 200 but after 2010 results are released). Book value (land/farms, Upper Hill office building, majani, majani & more majani with rains)

I am comfy with KPLC & Williamson target prices coz I am confident about their profits for 2009-10 will be excellent. There will be ups & downs until results are released. June 2010 for Williamson + Kapchorua. Aug/Sep 2010 for KPLC.

KQ seems to be doing OK. They need to add new routes (hindered by lack of good/efficient aircraft) in the African market.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#97 Posted : Wednesday, March 10, 2010 10:20:19 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,135
Location: Nairobi
@horton - KQ, KPLC & Williamson
I did my research & these are my picks...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
guru267
#98 Posted : Wednesday, March 10, 2010 2:50:48 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
@VVS your prediction of 200 for KPLC by end 2011 is a tad modest dont you think???

after lots of research i have the prediction of 200 by the end of 2010
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
mv_ufanisi
#99 Posted : Wednesday, March 10, 2010 3:56:36 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/15/2010
Posts: 625
Given that this is the stock market .. no prediction is truly reliable over the short term. Stocks could go up or down in the short term for very different reasons from fundamentals. And of course there's a lot of company info that is not found on the annual report. So you need some luck to bear out your predictions.
VituVingiSana
#100 Posted : Friday, March 12, 2010 3:14:37 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,135
Location: Nairobi
I chose the longer term for all my picks... Why? Coz short-term trends are very volatile...

I am relatively certain that my picks will put up good numbers (profits) for 2009-10. Williamson & KQ year end is March. KPLC is June.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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